Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates. (user search)
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  Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates.  (Read 33805 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: May 03, 2014, 07:16:02 PM »

South Carolina

http://ors.sc.gov/digital/2010GISData/S815_statewide.pdf

We can see the SC democratic is extremely competitive by electing people in such conservative districts. I can see 2 reasons:
-the SC democratic party always runs good recruits and SC was extremely democrat before (see the 1932,1936 election Tongue). Vincent Sheheen is definitely a strong recruit.
-The SC republican party is definitely a MESS (Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham are two exceptions though): Nikki  Haley, Mark Sanford, the tea party has an important influence in the SC GOP.

There is also another reason, we still have a few long time incumbent blue dogs.  In the 26th district the other Nikki, Nikki Setzler, is a conservative blue dog who has been in office since 1976.  I fully expect that when he leaves the Senate, the GOP will pick up his seat, much as the GOP picked up the 25th when Tommy Moore left.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2014, 08:13:51 AM »

And yes, in some states, republicans are too conservative and they could do much better if they were more moderate, the South Carolina Republican Party, and I fail to see where hackery is. I have said too that Republicans in some blue states were really competitive, like in Oregon, Nevada, Connecticut,... I have also critized the OH democrat party for being a mess and for failing to win some toss up/lean D state senate seat.

Huh?  The SCGOP at present controls all nine statewide offices, the General Assembly, and all but one member of the Congressional delegation.  While they aren't entirely dominated by wingnuts, they certainly are predominating and I fail to see how they could possibly do better than they are doing even if they did take a turn towards being moderate.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2014, 01:17:41 PM »

They always line good recruits: Vincent Sheheen falls short last time, only 3 points, and he represents what a dem in a conservative state should be.
Actually, for him to lose by 3 points merely pointed out the problems the GOP had in this state in 2010.  Sanford had just recently hiked the Appalachian Trail and there were a lot of questions concerning Haley.  But those have largely been resolved and the GOP is back to its usual strong self.  I would not be surprised if Haley wins by 10 or more points this time and I would be shocked if Sheheen could managed to have the rematch be as close as the first time.

The SCDP is in awful shape.  Yes, they've been able to line up reasonably good candidates for the gubernatorial race, but the bench has been awfully thin, enough so that they've only been able to field one or two strong candidates in each election.  Even counting weak candidates, they've only managed to field candidates for six of the nine statewide offices this year and only five of the seven U.S. House seats, with no one bothering to contest Sanford in the 1st District.
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