South Carolina

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I just don't see how this state could go further Republican than it already has.  However, that doesn't mean we'll start swinging to the Democrats.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't think it'll take an immigrant flood.  (And even if one happened, I think it more likely to come from Latin America than sub-Saharan Africa.  It would take Europe going into a tailspin economically for that to not remain the principal place Africans seek to immigrate to.)  We've hit the point where even Republicans are starting to get disgusted with mindless anti-tax rhetoric. (Not disgusted enough to start raising taxes to pay for needed services, but still...)  In this state, that's because the local politicians are getting tired of the General Assembly continuing to hand responsibilities off to them while simultaneously not providing the funds and prohibiting them from raising local taxes themselves as much as would be needed to make up the shortfall.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If I'm not mistaken, SC almost voted for Ike twice and barely voted for Carter.  When you consider that it had Strom Thurmond who flipped to the GOP well before Republicans had power in the South (say what you want about civil rights, there were MANY more segregationist Democrats who remained in the party until the day they died), it seems they've always been more conservative than their neighbors (or at least post-New Deal).

The fact that South Carolina underwent a similar political evolution to that of Virginia or Florida rather than Mississippi or Alabama seems to suggest that it will become Democratic sooner than most other Southern states.

I expect we will see an lowland vs. upland dynamic emerge in the Palmetto State, with the Black Belt and the Coast becoming overwhelmingly Democratic while the Greenville area remains staunchly conservative. 

Maybe if establishment Republicans are driven out of the GOP by the tea partiers, but while that is a Democratic dream, I'm dubious it'll ever be reality.