Future voting patterns....

[Gustaf]

I don't think the future is going to look that Democratic.  The two party system tends towards a fairly even division, because the parties shift their positions competitively over time.

Exactly.

[Gustaf]

On the topic of parties changing, I definitely see the US growing more socially moderate. The Southern WASPs, who uphold pld-fashioned conservatism are likely to expereicne continuous decline. On eceonomy I'm less sure, but I'd imagine more free trade and possibly more liberal domestic policies, taking care of the poor etc. It's hard to see the US move in the other direction, anyway. But baby boomers retiring might cause higher taxes, and with the huge deficit I don't really see any new spending being done for some time.

[Gustaf]

I see the Dems taking the coasts and the Republcains the non.coast, with the SOuth-West being the main exception.

[Gustaf]

I think the carolinas, louisiana, texas, and florida will also be exceptions to your coastal rule.  And Alaska, of course.  Your SW exception is based, I assume, on the assumption of continued exploitation of minorities by the Democrats.  I don't think that will last, but its just a guess.

I wasn't counting Texas, admittedly...I never actually thought about Texas as coastal, you know... I do think Texas will trend Demcoratic, but I'm not sure how far that will take it. South Carolina might be another exception, I'll give you that. And Alaska, lol, what can I say.

[Gustaf]

How about the Most Static State - the state that changes the least.  

I suggest Pennsylvania.  

I think PA is trending GOP...

[Gustaf]

Here's a map of the 1964 election with battleground states (within 5% of national average) in green, blue for Goldwater and red for LBJ. Just to give a little perspective on trends...







Dem: 207 EVs

Rep: 163

Tossup: 168

[Gustaf]

The close election of 1976, with wrong EV stats on the map this time...grey for tossups.

Dem: 115

Rep: 102

Tossup: 321

[Gustaf]

1988:

Dem: 146

Rep: 191

Tossup: 201

[Gustaf]

1956:

Dem: 131

Rep: 148

Tossup (green): 252

[Gustaf]

how do you put the green?

In the EC calcualtors for previous election Leip put in indepednent for some, so I use that to get the right EV-numbers on the map...

[Gustaf]

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Lol...there's a point to that...

[Gustaf]

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.

[Gustaf]

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.

The Dem canidate would be a lot more radical.

Not necessarily.

[Gustaf]

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.

The Dem canidate would be a lot more radical.

Not necessarily.

Yes they would be.  99 percent of all elected black politicans that are Dems are lunatics.  The only one I see that isn't is Harold Ford.

WE're talking about a distant future, and it doesn't have to be a black. It could be a Hispanic, or even a Jew, as long as it can be considered an ethnical minority.

[Gustaf]

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.

The Dem canidate would be a lot more radical.

Not necessarily.

Yes they would be.  99 percent of all elected black politicans that are Dems are lunatics.  The only one I see that isn't is Harold Ford.

WE're talking about a distant future, and it doesn't have to be a black. It could be a Hispanic, or even a Jew, as long as it can be considered an ethnical minority.

Anybody can be an ethnic minority.

Many can, but not so many actually are considered as such.