Gustaf
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« on: November 20, 2012, 08:23:01 PM » |
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I'm tired and jetlagged but I think the reasonable way to do it is this:
1. The chance of being a Romney voters if you're straight was 50%, 25% if you were gay. Thus it should be twice as likely to be a Romney voter if you're straight. This should hold for blacks as well as whites if there is no interaction.
2. Simplifying a little based on how few gays there are, this should mean that about 3% of gay blacks should be Romney voters, since 6% of the black voters were Romney voters. That's about 55 000.
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