Hmmm....what if? (interesting)

[Gustaf]

The Democrat would carry moderate Southern states, such as TN, AR, LA whereas the Republican would carry NH, ME and possibly VT. Overall though, the Dems are stronger in the Northeast than the GOP is in the South. I'll make a map soon...

[Gustaf]

The Republican would also improve his chances and likely carry PA, NJ (which has a history of voting for moderate republicans, especially those from the same region) and improve his share of the vote in NY and CT.

VT is a bit of a stretch nowadays

Gore's victory margin:

NJ: 15.83%

VT: 9.94%

I agree with you on PA though.

[Gustaf]

Something along those lines?

[Gustaf]

The Democrat would win NC, KY and GA... and would have a good chance of carrying SC and MS (yes MS. Look at 1996)

Depending on how populist the Democrat was... the Republican would win CT

I think both nominees would have to keep somewhat in line...if Clinton came 5 points from wining MS in an elecion that he won by 14 poins a populaist won't win it in a close election.