Gustaf
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Atlas Star
Posts: 29,781
Political Matrix E: 0.39, S: -0.70
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« on: February 18, 2016, 11:53:26 AM » |
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I think that a top-3 finish at least once in the first 3 states is a must to stay in. Has anyone ever gone on after not achieving that? (not counting completely quixotic candidates like Kucinich)
So far, that's Bush and Carson. So I think this makes perfect sense. Bush staying on after New Hampshire had a certain logic. He beat Rubio there and Kasich was said to have low resources and looked like a potentially bad fit for South Carolina. So Bush had a not unrealistic hope of coming in 3rd there beating out Rubio and Kasich. Another bad Rubio showing in SC, he drops out. Kasich is forced out either then or after Bush beats him again in Nevada. Voila, establishment candidate and some sort of outside chance. By now it is clear that isn't happening of course, but it was worth a shot after NH.
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