I think this poll is an outlier, where will the Tory gains come from ?
I find it hard to believe the Tories will make inroads in tribal labour areas in the valleys and south of Wales,
The Tories may gain few seats in the north, tho I'm skeptical of them gaining Wrexham.
Last election Tories' margin over Labour in Wales was about 15% worse than the national average. Current polling has Tories ahead of Labour nationally by around 20-25%. It'd take quite a bit of resilience in Wales for them to not lead there right now, and this seems in line with a uniform swing.
I don't know much about Welsh politics to gauge how elastic it should be, but it doesn't seem crazy to me.
Whether the Tories can actually get this sort of landslide on election day is a different question, obviously.
To those who know more than me, is there any chance of a flow towards PC from Labour? In a situation where traditional Labour voters hate Corbyn but also the Tories I'd have guessed the existence of a credible alternative would hurt Labour more but maybe PC is unappealing to a lot of those people?