My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[Gustaf]

Something I'd like to point out if you break it down to raw stats 55% of people who win the Iowa caucus win the nomination, 11% of second place finishers win the nom. and a whopping 33% of 3rd place finishers win their parties support at the end.

So those top 3 spots are a big deal.

What are you basing this on? Dems only, or Reps as well? How far back are you going, etc. So, anyone finishing 4th place has never, ever won the nomination? Interesting...

It includes republicans and I'm unsure how far back it goes.

Where does it come from? And would it be possible to break it down to Dems only, since the dynamics are different for the parties?  

[Gustaf]

I will point this out again. An important factor, NOT to be overlooked, is the 15% rule. If I remember it correctly, any candidate with less than 15% of attendants of a caucus meeting is removed. This will most likely happen in a lot of places, considering the fact that all candidates are around 20%. I believe most of these voters will not go for Dean. This will give Kerry/ Edwards a boost, and might be enough to beat Dean.

[Gustaf]

I can't wait to see Gephardt drop out.

Hopefully tonight....

I'm guessing he'd throw his support to Kerry or Edwards - not that that's going to help them much outside of Iowa.

It wil reduce the split in the "non-Dean vote" some. It would help them in MO on Feb. 3rd, wouldn't it?

[Gustaf]

It wil reduce the split in the "non-Dean vote" some. It would help them in MO on Feb. 3rd, wouldn't it?

It helps them a little bit, but not much.  Gephardt isn't really polling that great outside of Iowa....

It might help them in Missouri, I admit.  Might.  But that's it.

It could have an effect in close races. Also, it will affect the positions of unions, which could have an effect.

[Gustaf]

It could have an effect in close races. Also, it will affect the positions of unions, which could have an effect.

True, I didn't think about the unions...

But if Gephardt doesn't actually endorse another candidate, I predict his union endorsements will go to Dean - not Kerry or Edwards.

Yes, I realized that as well...damn, just when I thought we were getting rid of Dean!

[Gustaf]

The sad thing is that the first Iowa results will come around by 3.30 am in Sweden...

[Gustaf]

The sad thing is that the first Iowa results will come around by 3.30 am in Sweden...

Gonna stay up all night?  I would.

I'm thinking about it...there's school tomorrow though...you're in a bad timezone for having such exciting elections, why didn't those supposedly clever founding fathers think of THAT, huh?

[Gustaf]

I'm thinking about it...there's school tomorrow though...you're in a bad timezone for having such exciting elections, why didn't those supposedly clever founding fathers think of THAT, huh?

haha... Good point.  When I become president, I'll change that!  Sounds like something Wes Clark would promise, doesn't it?

You would have my vote! Maybe so...it might upset the people actually living in your time zones...or whatever, I'm not really sure what I'm suggesting...

[Gustaf]

I'm thinking about it...there's school tomorrow though...you're in a bad timezone for having such exciting elections, why didn't those supposedly clever founding fathers think of THAT, huh?

haha... Good point.  When I become president, I'll change that!  Sounds like something Wes Clark would promise, doesn't it?

You would have my vote! Maybe so...it might upset the people actually living in your time zones...or whatever, I'm not really sure what I'm suggesting...

I'm not sure really either, but I'm going with it

Thanks, I will remember your blind support!