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June 04, 2024, 05:47:41 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Author Topic: Exit Polling  (Read 28121 times)
Gustaf
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Atlas Star
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Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« on: February 20, 2004, 03:09:09 PM »
I think NHPolitico's vote should be regarded as invalid, b/c he voted for a position that as far as I know doesn't exist... Wink

At least, that's what we will do if there's a recount... Smiley
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2004, 06:12:50 PM »

What happened to your real life maps, MiamiU? They're cool, keep doing them...even though the election is far from over yet... Smiley

When does it end now again?
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2004, 06:38:06 PM »

Who are you talking to, and about what?
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2004, 06:42:06 PM »
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 20, 2004, 06:41:12 PM
Quote from: Huckleberry Finn on February 20, 2004, 06:39:28 PM
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 20, 2004, 06:26:33 PM
I projected you would vote, so I put NY into the Nym column before you actually voted.
Well. I didn't know that election would be today. I was just going to sleep when I noticed that thread!
Okay...you could have voted on Saturday too Smiley

I can't vote on Sunday?
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2004, 06:48:53 PM »
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 20, 2004, 06:44:39 PM
Quote from: Gustaf on February 20, 2004, 06:42:06 PM
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 20, 2004, 06:41:12 PM
Quote from: Huckleberry Finn on February 20, 2004, 06:39:28 PM
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 20, 2004, 06:26:33 PM
I projected you would vote, so I put NY into the Nym column before you actually voted.
Well. I didn't know that election would be today. I was just going to sleep when I noticed that thread!
Okay...you could have voted on Saturday too Smiley

I can't vote on Sunday?
No.

Oh. Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2004, 08:00:11 AM »

Like this:



At least according to GusNews count... Smiley
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2004, 08:02:29 AM »
That means a slight lead for Nym90...some states are too close to call, others haven't reported yet...MY map will ignore the geographics of forum members, with the exception of senators, etc having an impact on the election. It will also be corrrelated with the popular vote.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2004, 08:13:14 AM »
Prediction from GusNews, based on a mixture of exit polls, vote counts and polls from earlier stages of the campaign. It gives the following EV counts:

Nym90: 222

Supersoulty: 218
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2004, 08:20:22 AM »
GusNews is now ready to call Pennsylvania, Nebraska and Texas for Gov. Supersoulty, New York, Rhode Island, Lousiana and Arkansas for Senator Nym90.

This makes the EV stands very close now, the numbers will be in in a minute...stay tuned! Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2004, 08:21:00 AM »
Quote from: Gustaf on February 21, 2004, 08:20:22 AM
GusNews is now ready to call Pennsylvania, Nebraska and Texas for Gov. Supersoulty, New York, Rhode Island, Lousiana and Arkansas for Senator Nym90.

This makes the EV stands very close now, the numbers will be in in a minute...stay tuned! Smiley

Here comes the map!
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2004, 08:23:19 AM »
GusNews apologizes for it's premature calling of Rhode Island, retracts it from Senator Nym90, making the EV numbers as follows:

Supersoulty: 123

Nym90: 121

Stay tuned! Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2004, 08:41:15 AM »
GusNews now retract Vermont from Senator Nym90, but instead now calls Wisconsin and Tennessee for the Democratic candidate, while calling the Dakotas and Wyoming for Gov. Supersoulty...update map coming up soon! Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2004, 08:45:33 AM »
And here we go!



The EV stand is now:

Nym90: 139

Superoulty: 135

So the senator has now retaken the lead! Stay tuned... Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2004, 10:01:23 AM »

Gore only won Vermont with a margin of 10%, so Superoulty's moderate stands and 'northeastern strategy' wins him Vermont, though narrowly.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2004, 10:05:03 AM »
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 21, 2004, 10:04:28 AM
MNN is ready to project MINNESOTA will be won by Supersoulty.

Lol...you only have 50% reporting from MN so far...
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2004, 10:35:00 AM »
Quote from: JohnFKennedy on February 21, 2004, 10:16:16 AM
ooooh, showdown between JFK and MNN!!!!! I call it a tie with a full turnout for the Democrats but if this doesn't happen, JFK agrees with MNN

Isn't it kind of cowardly to qualify it like that...I am confident that GusNews will call Minnesota correctly... Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2004, 10:37:51 AM »
Quote from: JohnFKennedy on February 21, 2004, 10:36:53 AM
i am saying that is how it will go, but I predict a TIE.

If there isn't full democratic turnout though, miami will be right.

TIE!!!

If you fullfill our little contract for the deal I offered, Minnesota might become a tie...
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2004, 10:39:03 AM »

What? Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2004, 10:40:58 AM »
Quote from: JohnFKennedy on February 21, 2004, 10:39:37 AM
i want my money still and why haven't you voted gustaf?

I will vote, but it isn't fun to vote too early...will you agree to my terms? Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2004, 10:44:58 AM »
Quote from: JohnFKennedy on February 21, 2004, 10:41:48 AM
how about, £3k + Minnesota for his death and the papers planted, that is £4.5k off my original total

And how is the payment arranged? 0.1%+0.1%+99.8%?
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2004, 11:00:09 AM »
Quote from: JohnFKennedy on February 21, 2004, 10:46:08 AM
1% up front, 0.5% when done, other 98.5% when you are King

Sorry, that's too much.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2004, 11:04:10 AM »

You don't wanna know, believe me...
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2004, 11:05:15 AM »
Quote from: JohnFKennedy on February 21, 2004, 11:02:21 AM
0.5% up front, 0.5% when done and 99% when you are King

Minnesota up front too

that is £15 up front, £15 when done and the other £2970 when you are King.

Well...at least you're talking by now...if you let me have a share of that Ferrari you're getting from someone it's a deal... Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2004, 12:26:27 PM »
Yep, it looks like a tight race indeed.

GusNews will soon call a few more states... Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2004, 03:02:39 PM »
Quote from: Harry on February 21, 2004, 02:48:57 PM
For all he knows his computer or electricity or something could fail.  He needs to vote now, while he knows he can!

No fear, Gustaf is here! Smiley

You'll need a lot more though... Sad
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