2008 Senate and House Target States

[nini2287]

Democrats:
Maine-If Collins retires.

She has said before that she will retire (whether she holds that promise is yet to be seen)--the Democrats should pick this up if she does resign.

New Hampshire-If Lynch runs

That's the only way the race will be competitive.

North Carolina-If Easly Runs

I think he said he didn't want to pursue a future in politics after his current term.  I've heard some rumors that John Edwards might run...lol...

Georgia-If Cleland runs (Time for some payback)

He'd lose again.  Safe GOP.

Minnesota-Coleman is vunerable

Absolutely, unless Al Franken is the nominee.

Texas-Yes I'm senile

It's an outside shot with Cornyn's approval ratings.  I could see a 2006 TX Governors Race style election unfold here and have 1 or 2 strong independent candidates (maybe Kinky if he comes close but loses the Governor race).

Colorado-Rep. Udall already says he will run and he will win.

With or without Allard on the ticket, this race will be very competitive.

New Mexico- If that old fart retires. He hasnt been raising any money

Only if Domenici (a good Senator) retires.


Republicans-

New Jersey-Only republican who can win is Kean Jr.

Not true whatsoever.  If Lautenberg's approvals stay down, this could be very competitive, although I suspect the Democratic machine will be able to make sure a Democrat wins no matter what.

Delaware

Should Biden retire, Biden's son (the Secretary of State) will run and win this seat.

Michigan-If Levin retires.

Correct.

Louisiana

This will be a good race, but I think Landrieu's time might be up.

Also, if Warner retires Virginia will be competitive (same with Alaska/Stevens if Tony Knowles runs--although he will probably win the Governor election this year).

My early prediction:

R--->D
Maine
Colorado
Minnesota

D--->R
Lousiana

[nini2287]

That's pretty much what I think. Another state to watch is Montana.  Should Baucus retire, Dennis Rehberg would be a strong contender to pick up the seat for the Republicans.  If Harkin should retire in Iowa, there is another possibility.  I'd say Mike Rounds could make it a race against Tim Johnson in South Dakota, but Dakota governors haven't been up to running for Senate lately.

As far as Colorado, I think Allard wins if he runs.  If not, the seat is a toss-up. 

I forgot about those seats.  I'd think that Baucus and Harkin wouldn't run if it would endanger the Democrats' chances of gaining the Senate.  However, Rehberg or Former Gov. Marc Raiciot might run anyway.  Even if Baucus does retire, Gov. Schweitzer might run for the open seat.  Rounds might run, but outside of him I don't think anyone could take down Johnson.  Right now, Allard has the lowest (I believe) approval ratings in the country, so if he runs again, it'll be interesting to see if sponsors another gay marriage bill.