Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,092
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: October 06, 2012, 02:47:01 AM » |
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In the past 100 years, nominal total turnout for an incumbent between two subsequent elections has only dropped twice: 1944 (-4%) and 1996 (-8%). Obviously, WWII played a part in 1944 when compared to 1940, and the other time was most likely due to millions of voters intrigued by the first three-candidate race of the modern era combined with a lackluster lineup. There was also one other election where turnout dropped: in 1988, it dropped by 1% when compared to 1984.
The 100-year average nominal increase in turnouts between two subsequent elections is 9.5%, ranging from -8% in 1996 to 45% in 1920. What was the 2008 turnout increase when compared to 2004? 8%.
Based on past trends, it's quite possible that nominal turnout will increase.
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