Is Our Regions Thriving? A (Mostly) Unbiased & Accurate 12-Month Review

[Adam Griffin]

All of the discussion over regional consolidation and the various views out there on the subject has created a lot of variance in how we view the regional system. Certainly, many of us have our anecdotal experiences that have been tossed around as evidence of our positions' correctness, but this isn't always (or ever) the best way to view any given issue. I have been hypothesizing that activity has been at historic lows for some time. Is this true?

So I thought: why not look at some of the measurable metrics of the regional system over the past year to see where we stand relative to a month ago, or a year ago? Why not look at how voting patterns have shifted and how inflation of the Census count has affected this? Surely there would be valuable information to consider.

Perhaps there is. Below, you'll find a ton of charts on the subject. What is this data?

• All regional voting booths from September 1, 2012 to present have been examined
• Regular regional elections are indicated on each chart in light blue; each region can be identified by the standard Wiki colors (IDS - goldenrod, ME - lime green, NE - purple, MW - red, Pacific - blue).
• Light blue trend lines only relate to regular regional elections; other trend line on each region's chart accounts all regional voting booths

"But Adam, voting is not necessarily indicative of activity!" - Correct. However, I have measured every regional election over the past year and as such, it's a pretty balanced measurement overall. It's not 100% perfect nor exactly scientific, so don't bust my balls. You will see clear trends below, plus I plan to add on to this in the coming days and weight these numbers so we have an even more accurate (and relative) assessment to consider.

First, the IDS:

The IDS saw the biggest prolonged increase in average voters over the twelve month period, but has recently crashed quite hard. Clear trends in both regular regional and special elections can be seen in terms of increases throughout the fall, winter and spring of 2012-2013. Following the April regional elections, however, turnout dropped dramatically. I can speak somewhat to what happened here: I stopped caring about turning out voters after SJoyce won, but really wanted BK to win in August. For the most part, the conservative half of the region seems to have followed suit.

The same chart, but with trend lines:

Next, the Mideast:

The glorious bastion of regional success, we so often hear, is the Mideast. What do the numbers say, though? While the region certainly did undergo the largest population boom of any region throughout the 12-month period, its rapid fluctuations in voter participation mute this achievement in part. It also saw a rapid decrease in voter participation that began in May - initially, I thought this could be due to school ending, but this trend is not apparent in all regional analyses. Former Governor Tmthforu94's departure from the executive office and region may have played a role in this, but it is clear that voter participation has been consistently declining for four months now.

The Northeast:

At one point the epitome of activity in Atlasia, the Northeast has experienced a less disastrous fate overall when compared to the aforementioned regions. Voter participation was never very high in constitutional amendment votes and special elections, but the clear deterioration of the region can be witnessed in the regional election turnout. Effectively, the Northeast has as many active voters today as it did one year ago - despite a smaller population.

The Midwest:

Commonly thought of as "that region that just keeps chugging along", the Midwest has seen a very slight uptick in its fortunes over the past twelve months in regards to voter turnout; previously, voter turnout was subject to wild swings. Regular elections appear to have helped in this regard. Still, it should be considered that the Midwest has grown by roughly 50% since last year but only has two to three more voters per average election (Sept 2013) than one year prior.

The Pacific:

Commonly thought of as "that region that just won't die", it surprisingly has the most consistent increases in voter participation of any region over the past twelve months - even if those gains are relatively minuscule. The drivers behind this appear to be the recruitment efforts of Wolfentoad throughout the winter and Operation Rimjob (which began ~5/20).

Put Them All Together...

Oooh...aaah...

More to Come...

[Adam Griffin]

Thanks, all.

So basically, we're seeing an equalisation between the regions...?

Yes, but it is not necessarily a positive indicator (as I will be shortly following-up with some new data). The difference in regional voter participation has been reduced, but regional activity as a whole is down. The ME, for instance, is still larger than the one-year average in terms of population, yet currently has the lowest average voter participation at any point within the past year. It's not so much that the smaller regions have seen large upticks in participation, but the larger regions (ME & IDS) have seen larger decreases in participation, leading to a perceived equilibrium.

Another interesting observation (warning: ideological) is that the conservative-dominated regions of the ME & IDS seem to have experienced the largest decreases in voter participation over the past year, the fairly centrist Northeast region has held relatively steady, and the traditional leftist bastions have seen net increases in voter participation.

[Adam Griffin]

So much of the data above was mined for one particular purpose, which will be displayed below. My original premise was that regional activity is far lower than it was one year ago or a few months ago, but the above data does not necessarily draw a strong correlation with the trend on its own.

Since it is lacking relativity in terms of how many voters existed on the rolls at each interval, nominal increases or decreases in voter participation cannot be necessarily construed to show regional health. There was also no one measurement of total regional activity; rather, the measurements showed the overall health of each individual region.

National Participation in Regional Elections, Average Voters by Month (#)

It is a combination of all regional elections in all regions by month to determine the average number of voters for each month. The above chart shows a similar result to what we saw in the data posted previously. Essentially, it displays the appearance of a boom and bust cycle - perhaps there could be a seasonal influence, since one year ago participation was lower and then spiked, followed by a rapid decrease? The issue here is that census population changed quite markedly over the past year, and so a nominal measurement is not the best way to determine the level of activity or health of the regional system. It turns out not to be the case, and the relative assessment below goes a long way toward proving my initial hypothesis.

National Participation in Regional Elections, Average Voters by Month (%)

Wow. So this shows the same set of numbers as the chart above, but in terms of percentage of registered voters instead of a nominal measurement. The previous notion that this might be a boom and bust cycle (where Atlas kids go off to school/college and therefore spend more time on the computer versus the summer) is fairly well rejected. Over the past year, we have seen average voter participation rates in regional elections drop from nearly 45% to less than 35%. Relative regional voter participation is roughly 25% lower than it was one year ago.

[Adam Griffin]

The same data I posted earlier this morning, but this graph shows each region.

Participation by Region in Regional Elections, Average Voters by Month (%)

How many citizens would you need in 9/2013 to generate the same level of activity that 1 voter equaled in 9/2012?

Mideast: 2.03
IDS: 1.60
Northeast: 0.97
Midwest: 0.90
Pacific: 0.74

[Adam Griffin]

National Participation in Federal Elections, Voters (#)

National Participation in Federal Elections, Voters (%)