DNC host city short list: Birmingham, Columbus, NYC, Philly, Phoenix

[Adam Griffin]

Based on the convention locations of our past two conventions, Atlanta just makes sense. In 2008 and 2012, the DNC picked areas that either were on the verge of becoming or had just became swing states. I'm sure there were plenty of other considerations for the location, but that had to be a prime consideration. There is also a ton of potential political infrastructure that could come into Georgia by being selected in '16. If I were "the DNC", then I'd want to have boots on the ground in the newest swing state two months before the election.

Looking at 2016, the only new possible addition of a swing state is Georgia; Arizona and Texas are fool's gold. I suppose Hillary could upend the map and create a few potential swing states that wouldn't otherwise be there, but considering that the pick will be made right around or before she would announce (Charlotte was picked in Feb '11), I'm banking on it being a tactical decision based on a neutral electoral environment (again, assuming they pick the most rapidly-ripening state).

It doesn't make sense to have it in the Rust Belt, NY/CA would be a waste, and so would any Deep South state that's vying with AR and OK over how crazy and/or Republican it can get.

[Adam Griffin]

Based on the convention locations of our past two conventions, Atlanta just makes sense. In 2008 and 2012, the DNC picked areas that either were on the verge of becoming or had just became swing states. I'm sure there were plenty of other considerations for the location, but that had to be a prime consideration. There is also a ton of potential political infrastructure that could come into Georgia by being selected in '16. If I were "the DNC", then I'd want to have boots on the ground in the newest swing state two months before the election.

Looking at 2016, the only new possible addition of a swing state is Georgia; Arizona and Texas are fool's gold. I suppose Hillary could upend the map and create a few potential swing states that wouldn't otherwise be there, but considering that the pick will be made right around or before she would announce (Charlotte was picked in Feb '11), I'm banking on it being a tactical decision based on a neutral electoral environment (again, assuming they pick the most rapidly-ripening state).

It doesn't make sense to have it in the Rust Belt, NY/CA would be a waste, and so would any Deep South state that's vying with AR and OK over how crazy and/or Republican it can get.

I'm as irritated at the GOP dominance of GA as you are, but I think Hillary will win AZ and MO before she wins GA.

I have many data points lying around somewhere that shows how AZ is much less likely to flip before GA (if I have to boil it down to one simple statement, it is "blacks versus latinos"). MO is moving in the opposite direction of GA, but Hillary would probably do well there. Any other Democrat, however, would do worse in MO than in GA (and like I said, I think the DNC will pick a location based on a neutral political environment, rather than a Hillary-specific scenario).