House: Could Trump Lead to Apocalypse for Republicans?

[Adam Griffin]

In politics, expect the expected rather than the unexpected. Unlike there being evidence to suggest that "the unexpected" is unfolding with regard to a Trump nomination, there is no evidence to suggest a comparable unexpected coupling of presidential and congressional races under extreme scenarios.

The Tea Party is essentially dead. Perhaps it has been reborn into this Trump-mania, but the initial organization and dedication that we saw from 2009-2012 is mostly gone. Much like the boat is a-rocking in the Democratic Party with respect to Sanders supporters and the purist devotion to one candidate, there is practically no one organizing the recruitment of loonies down-ballot. I'd say that the GOP candidate line-up across the nation for House and Senate (at least those in districts that could be competitive in even the worst-case scenario) will be saner in 2016 than it was 4-6 years ago - or at the very least, the needle of relativity has moved and the country is more accepting of levels of crazy that would have seemed crazier a few years ago. Most will be able to stand on their own and distance themselves where necessary, and for the good bulk of them, that'll be enough - seems that congressional GOP candidates tend to run ahead of their presidential counterparts more often than not.

There's no doubt that a huge landslide - let's say Trump is nominated and loses the popular vote by 10-12 points - would move this congressional needle to a degree, and to a degree larger than what we would otherwise see. There is a connection of sorts. It would knock out a few previously-safe GOP incumbents here and there. But it's not going to be anywhere nearly comparable to the drumming that the top-ticket candidate would take, and therefore, we continue to expect the expected.