MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Adam Griffin]

Marty is always sharing hearsay and late-breaking commentary that is found later to be false - disregard. Somebody needs to stay off the Twitter.

[Adam Griffin]

The NYT numbers seem... weird. For instance, both the NYT and the MT SOS report the same number of votes in Missoula, but the NYT says that 32/52 precincts are in while the MT SOS says that zero are. Is the NYT trying to estimate the percentage of the early vote to election day voters, or is something messed up with their reporting?

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election
http://mtelectionresults.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED

Never pay any attention to NYT's "precincts reporting" stat.

[Adam Griffin]

Beet, your posts are bad.

I'm allowed to blow off a little steam after being browbeat for 7 months over how any Democrat but Clinton would have wiped the board. Bernie woulda won. Biden woulda won. Obama woulda won. O'Malley woulda won. It was a rejection of HER. She wasn't far left enough. yada yada yada nonstop.

No, you're not, considering you adopted the very same shtick just a few months ago.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys, remember quist isn't exactly prince charming here. Yea, he didn't assault anyone, but he has some major sketchy background issues. It probably turned a lot of potential voters away.

Almost everybody who lives in Montana (excluding Nat-Ams) is either a dirty rancher, a vagrant or a hippie. I'm not sure why the "I take showers at truck stops" or "all organic gluten-free" crowds would be turned off.

[Adam Griffin]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

Can we please not start this discussion in here right now? We just got rid of Beet, ffs.

[Adam Griffin]

Based on what MT SOS says is fully reporting:

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

>Proceeds to repeat religious claptrap
>Says we don't need religion dictating our candidates' behaviors

[Adam Griffin]

10k votes just dumped; 50.4-43.7.

BTW the MT SOS seems to be ahead of DDHQ now: http://mtelectionresults.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

[Adam Griffin]

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If by "I love gay marriage", then sure. If we're talking about basic economically redistributionary policies that have historically been the cornerstone of the Democratic Party, absolutely not.

[Adam Griffin]

2014 turnout: 367,963
2016 turnout (est 80% of vote counted): 339,892

[Adam Griffin]

Piano's down to a 6.4-point lead.

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

Nice maps Griffin! If you don't mind, I (and I'm sure many others) would like to see a Governor '16 to House '17 swing map (to show where and how much Gianforte did better/worse).

I'll get around to it shortly.

I know this is probably too much to ask for, but would you mind doing a 2014-2017 trend map, Adam? I might give it a try as well, but your maps are 100 times better than mine.

A trend map, or do you mean a swing map?

[Adam Griffin]

Nice maps Griffin! If you don't mind, I (and I'm sure many others) would like to see a Governor '16 to House '17 swing map (to show where and how much Gianforte did better/worse).

I'll get around to it shortly.

I know this is probably too much to ask for, but would you mind doing a 2014-2017 trend map, Adam? I might give it a try as well, but your maps are 100 times better than mine.

A trend map, or do you mean a swing map?

A trend map would be really nice, but it might take too much time, right?

Maybe I'm a tad too drunk, but I'm trying to think of how to even do that? Would we compare MT 2014 against the national House PV for 2014, and then stack that up against the 2017 margins (no trend for 2017)?

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

Maybe I'm a tad too drunk, but I'm trying to think of how to even do that? Would we compare MT 2014 against the national House PV for 2014, and then stack that up against the 2017 margins (no trend for 2017)?

Comparing the county results against the statewide results. I was thinking about something like this:

2014: Statewide margin: R+15, Yellowstone margin: R+21.5
2017: Statewide margin: R+7, Yellowstone margin: R+19

--> The state swung 8 points to the left from 2014-2017, but Yellowstone County swung only 2.5 points Democratic. Hence, Yellowstone trended 5.5 points Republican.

Well for now, this is all you're getting.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like we're gonna beat 2014 turnout (200 votes short right now): GOP at 92% of 2014 numbers and Dems at 107%.

[Adam Griffin]

Sorry for the dublicate posts everyone, I was having wifi troubles.

Are you sure it's not the site? I've been having a hell of a wait time posting the last hour or so

It's the site - it's been lagging for a couple of hours now. I had a post that it said timed out or whatever but still ended up posting.

[Adam Griffin]

If I had to guess, this will be the final result:

GIANFORTE   206500   49.05%
QUIST      190500   45.25%
WICKS      24000   5.70%

[Adam Griffin]

S[inks]t guys, my 14/17 House swing map is completely wrong - I was looking at the Senate results instead. At any rate, I'll update the image label so that it accurately portrays what it's showing.

[Adam Griffin]

Did mail ballots actually end up being 70% of all votes cast, or was it lower?