Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Adam Griffin]

Any idea what percentage of Sedgwick is counted? It was 70% of all votes cast in 2016.

[Adam Griffin]

How many votes should we be expecting total in this race? This is likely early vote and not a precinct; there are 25,000 votes counted already. This could be a quarter or more of the turnout in already, so I don't think we should discard these prelims as a heavily Democratic precinct or whatever.

[Adam Griffin]

Butler County reporting, 54-43 Estes
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/851952864775876613

69-24 Trump; 11% of CD's votes in 2016 - with Sedgwick combined that was 81% of all 2016 votes.

[Adam Griffin]

Tom Bonier‏ @tbonier  1h1 hour ago
Well, wow. It appears Thompson won the EV/AV in Sedgwick 61%-36%, while the turnout was 42% Reg Dems, 44% Reg GOPs. #KS04

My butthole just clinched with joy. Surely this can't be right? Is Thompson picking up every unaffiliated voter?

[Adam Griffin]

SoS still doesn't have Butler's results listed, but I'm not betting on DDHQ getting the numbers wrong.

[Adam Griffin]

If Dems have cannabilized to a large degree and this comes down to the wire, then Sumner County (72-21 Trump) may make the difference. It's the only other county where at least 3% of the 2016 vote is located.

[Adam Griffin]

How can it be Democrats cannibalizing themselves if the partisan breakdown of the EV slightly favored Republicans?

Doesn't the district lean very strongly in registration/primary vote toward the Republicans?

[Adam Griffin]

Stop getting me all excited, people. Now I have to commit to sitting at my computer for the next few hours pressing refresh instead of, you know, eating and doing taxes.

Now I'm sitting here getting all liquored up instead of doing my at-dusk exercising.

Could there be a more fitting drink for me to have?

[Adam Griffin]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

Really? What was FL? I recall the EV there being ugly for Trump.

 From that observation, I'm starting to suspect Estes is toast.

If I recall correctly, Dems only had a net EV advantage of a point or two - but people read into this as being good considering the net Dem advantage they had in 2012 was less (or non-existent?) in early voting and Obama still eeked out a win + believing the losses in D registration over the past four years were merely Romney '12 voters finally flipping their registrations.

[Adam Griffin]

Are Kansas primaries open or closed? The reason I'm asking is that if they are closed, that could explain why Thompson did so good with registered R's in the early vote.

They're closed, but places like Sedgwick aren't necessarily going to have such lopsided numbers of Democrats registered as Republicans because of the dominance. Yes, they do exist I'm sure, but it wouldn't be like it is in super-majority GOP counties where 30-40% of your Dems are voting in the GOP primaries. The increase in the share of Dems registered as Reps or vice-versa exponentially increases with the percentage of the vote of the majority party.

[Adam Griffin]

Edwards going 74-24 for Estes, with 9/15 in.

79-16 Trump

[Adam Griffin]

Edwards was 79-16 Trump, but Thompson needs a bigger swing than that in other counties to win this.

If he can maintain huge swings in Sedgwick, Butler and Sumner, he's likely going to be OK. Those three counties were 85% of the 2016 vote.

[Adam Griffin]

Decision Desk HQ‏ @DecisionDeskHQ
Thompson won early votes in Harvey 1043 to 703

58-34 Trump (60-40 Thompson)

[Adam Griffin]

What just dumped?

[Adam Griffin]

Now 61-37 in Butler (69-24 Trump) with one-quarter of precincts reporting.

[Adam Griffin]

What share of Sedgewick is in?

If I had to guess, between one-third and one-quarter. We don't know for sure because of how early vote is counted - only 2/257 precincts fully reporting according to SoS.

[Adam Griffin]

Cowley votes showing up: 54-44 Estes (66-28 Trump); 16/59 precincts reporting

[Adam Griffin]

Comanche fully reporting: 74-24 Estes (82-12 Trump)

[Adam Griffin]

Kiowa fully reporting: 80-17 Estes (83-11 Trump)

[Adam Griffin]

53.4-44.9% as of right now

[Adam Griffin]

53.1-45.2%

[Adam Griffin]

Before anybody makes any call one way or another, let's remember that Sedgwick is barely reporting anything outside of EV. We won't know what any of this truly means until we see at least a few dozen more precincts from there dump.

[Adam Griffin]

Edwards fully reporting: 78-21 Estes (79-16 Trump)

[Adam Griffin]

17/23 reporting in Barber: 71-27 Estes (82-13 Trump)

[Adam Griffin]

Just an update: 60% of the precincts outside of Butler, Sedgwick and Sumner have reported. This probably means more like three-quarters of their votes are in already.