2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (UPDATED) (user search)
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Author Topic: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (UPDATED)  (Read 33983 times)
Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,092
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Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: May 12, 2017, 03:02:03 AM »
« edited: September 01, 2018, 08:45:38 AM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

2017 SPECIAL ELECTIONS:
(see next post for 2018 specials)

Average congressional swing, 2017: D+15.9
Average state legislative swing, 2017: D+9.1

Congressional:
 
TypeStateDistDateRunoff'16 Mar'16 P MarSpecial MarSwing (Avg)
HouseCA344/4/176/6/17(D vs D)D+73D+901D+17
HouseKS44/11/17R+31R+27R+7D+22
HouseMTA-L5/25/17R+16R+20R+6D+12
HouseGA64/18/176/20/17R+23R+2R+4D+9
HouseSC56/20/17R+21R+19R+3D+17
HouseUT311/7/17R+47R+24R+32D+4
SenateALA-L12/12/17R+28R+28D+2D+30

 
State Legislative
 
TypeStateDistDateRunoff'16 Mar'16 P MarSpecial MarSwing (Avg)
HouseAL7911/29/16N/AR+9No OppoN/A
SenateGA5412/13/161/10/17N/AR+58R+31D+27
SenateIA4512/27/17D+644D+16D+48D+8
SenateVA91/10/17N/AD+48D+83D+35
SenateVA221/10/17N/AR+15R+14D+1
HouseVA851/10/17N/AR+1R+6R+5
HouseIA891/31/17N/AD+11D+45D+34
HouseVA712/7/17D+78D+75D+80D+3
HouseMN32B2/14/17R+123R+29R+7D+14
SenateDE102/14/17R+24D+13D+17D+11
SenateCT22/28/17D+67D+69D+49R+19
SenateCT322/28/17R+36R+18R+10D+17
HouseCT1152/28/17D+38D+22D+28R+2
HousePA1973/21/17N/AD+92D+77R+15
HouseLA83/25/174/29/17N/AR+447(R vs R)N/A
HouseLA423/25/174/29/17N/AR+517(R vs R)N/A
HouseLA923/25/174/29/17N/AD+27R+745R+76
SenateGA324/18/175/16/17N/AR+13R+14R+1
HouseAL674/18/17N/AD+34D+906D+56
HouseCT74/25/17N/AD+83(D vs D)N/A
HouseCT684/25/17N/AR+33R+56R+23
SenateLA24/29/175/27/17(D vs D)D+237(D vs D)N/A
HouseOK285/9/17R+34R+50R+2D+40
SenateNY305/23/17D+91D+90D+89R+2
HouseNY95/23/17R+23R+37D+16D+46
HouseAL585/23/17N/ANo OppoN/A
HouseNHCRL 65/23/17R+14R+7D+4D+15
HouseNHHLB 445/23/17R+16R+9R+10D+3
SenateSC35/30/17N/AR+48No Oppo*N/A
HouseSC845/30/17N/AR+34R+21D+13
HouseTN956/15/17N/AR+39R+27D+12
HouseSC486/20/17N/AR+24R+22D+2
HouseSC706/20/17N/AD+43D+56D+13
SenateOK447/11/17R+104R+19D+9D+24
HouseOK757/11/17R+19R+22D+5D+26
HouseNHMCK 187/18/17D+12D+21D+56D+39
SenateNH167/25/17D+2D+0D+10D+9
SenateMAMDL 47/25/17N/AD+29D+768D+47
HouseMS1087/25/17R+544R+75R+609D+5
SenateWA458/1/1711/7/17R+54D+37D+92R+72
HouseIA828/8/17N/AR+21D+10D+31
SenateMO288/8/17N/AR+52R+40D+12
HouseMO508/8/17N/AR+21R+4D+17
SenateRI138/22/17D+104D+36D+20R+3
HouseOK469/12/17R+20R+10D+21D+36
SenateFL409/26/17R+10D+18D+40
HouseFL1169/26/17R+24D+4R+32R+22
HouseNHRCK 49/26/17R+40R+23D+2D+33
HouseSC319/26/17D+54D+48D+82D+31
HouseFL4410/10/17N/AD+6R+11R+17
HouseLA5810/14/17D+100D+43D+100D+27
HouseLA7710/14/17N/AR+58R+100R+21
SenateMABR/NF10/17/17N/AD+11D+4R+7
HouseNHSTR 1310/24/17N/AD+41D+64D+23
HouseGA411/7/17N/AR+30R+72R+42
HouseGA2611/7/17N/AR+59R+58R+1
HouseGA4211/7/17D+46D+42N/AN/A
HouseGA6011/7/17D+83D+83(D vs D)N/A
HouseGA8911/7/17N/AD+54(D vs D)N/A
HouseGA11711/7/17N/AR+3D+6D+9
HouseGA11911/7/17N/AR+7D+14D+21
SenateGA611/7/17R+4D+16(D vs D)N/A
SenateGA3911/7/17N/AD+73(D vs D)N/A
HouseME5611/7/17R+16R+22R+15D+4
HouseMABER 111/7/17N/AD+36D+52D+16
HouseMAESS 311/7/17N/AD+15D+7R+8
HouseMI111/7/17D+34D+52D+47D+4
HouseMI10911/7/17D+28R+4D+15D+3
SenateMO811/7/17N/AR+21R+8D+13
HouseMO2311/7/17N/AD+81D+79R+2
HouseMO15111/7/17N/AR+69R+43D+26
SenateMS1011/7/17N/AN/AN/A
HouseMS3811/7/17N/AN/AN/A
HouseMS5411/7/17N/AN/AN/A
SenateNY2611/7/17N/AD+73D+47R+26
HouseNY2711/7/17N/AD+34No OppoN/A
HouseNY7111/7/17D+85D+87No OppoN/A
HouseNHHLB 1511/7/17D+8R+10D+1D+2
HouseNHSUL 111/7/17D+18D+22D+32D+12
HouseSC11311/7/17N/AD+39D+62D+23
SenateWA711/7/17N/AR+34R+36R+2
SenateWA3111/7/17R+60R+9R+15D+20
SenateWA3711/7/17D+80D+81No OppoN/A
SenateWA4511/7/17R+6D+37D+10R+6
SenateWA4811/7/17D+30D+43D+386D+1
HouseWA711/7/17N/AR+34R+35R+1
HouseWA3111/7/17R+22R+9R+15D+1
HouseWA4811/7/17D+40D+43D+48D+6
SenateOK3711/14/17R+15R+40D+1D+27
SenateOK4511/14/17N/AR+40R+14D+26
HouseOK7611/14/17R+36R+35R+360
HouseCA5112/5/17D+73D+74N/AN/A
SenateMAWOR/MDL12/5/17N/AD+8R+4R+12
HousePA13312/5/17D+17D+10D+38D+25
SenateIA312/12/17N/AR+41R+9D+32
HouseFL5812/19/17R+17D+10R+21R+17
SenateMS4912/19/17N/AN/AN/A
SenateTN1712/19/17N/AR+48R+3D+45

1 Jungle primary margin between all combined Dem and all combined GOP candidates; runoff is Dem vs. Dem
2 Indicates runoff has not yet occurred; final result undetermined
3 Special was called because 2016 GOP candidate was ruled at the last-minute to be ineligible; using 2014 results for comparison
4 No regular election in 2016; using 2014 results for comparison
5 Democratic candidate on ballot but dropped out of race
6 Election was Dem versus independent
7 ED vote only; state does not record EV by precinct
8 Election was Dem versus Green
9 Election was GOP versus independent


CONTINUED BELOW
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2017, 11:36:18 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2018, 02:34:41 AM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

2018 SPECIAL ELECTIONS:

Average congressional swing, 2018: D+17.5
Average state legislative swing, 2018: D+11.0

Congressional:
 
TypeStateDistDateRunoff'16 Mar'16 P MarSpecial MarSwing (Avg)
HousePA183/13/18N/AR+20D+0D+20
HouseAZ84/24/18R+37R+21R+5D+24
HouseTX276/30/18R+23R+24R+21D+3
HouseOH128/7/18R+37R+11R+1D+23

State Legislative
 
TypeStateDistDateRunoff'16 Mar'16 P MarSpecial MarSwing (Avg)
HouseSC561/2/18N/AR+32No OppoN/A
HouseCT151/9/18N/AD+65D vs DN/A
SenateGA171/9/18R+19R+15R+32R+15
HouseGA1111/9/18R+3D+3R+14R+14
HouseIA61/16/18R+31R+30R+11D+20
HouseSC281/16/18N/AR+30No OppoN/A
HouseSC991/16/18N/AR+23R+13D+10
SenateWI101/16/18R+26R+17D+10D+32
HouseWI581/16/18N/AR+38R+13D+25
HouseWI661/16/18D+62D+42No OppoN/A
HousePA351/23/18D+25D+17D+46D+25
HouseMO392/6/18N/AR+46R+29D+17
HouseMO972/6/18N/AR+28D+3D+31
HouseMO1292/6/18R+779R+64R+38D+33
HouseMO1442/6/18N/AR+59R+5D+54
SenateMN542/12/18D+6R+1D+4D+2
HouseMN23B2/12/18R+34R+27R+19D+12
HouseFL722/13/18R+16R+5D+7D+17
HouseGA1752/13/18N/AR+25R+53R+28
SenateOK272/13/18N/AR+73R+36D+37
HouseLA862/17/183/24/18N/AR+50(R vs R)N/A
HouseKY492/20/18R+1R+49D+37D+62
HouseMS602/20/183/13/18N/AN/AN/A
HouseCT1202/27/18D+25D+2D+2R+12
HouseKY892/27/18N/AR+62R+34D+28
HouseNHBEL 32/27/18R+8R+12D+7D+17
SenateMAESS 33/6/18N/AD+25N/AN/A
HouseOK513/6/18R+56R+65R+44D+17
SenateTN143/13/18R+49R+44R+43D+4
HouseLA933/24/18N/AD+75(D vs D)N/A
HouseAL213/27/18R+35R+22R+6D+23
HouseMABR 24/3/18N/AD+9D+4R+5
SenateRI84/3/18(D vs D)D+31D+45D+14
SenateFL314/10/18(D vs D)D+25D+50D+25
SenateIA254/10/18N/AR+26R+12D+14
SenateNY324/24/18D+94D+87D+86R+5
SenateNY374/24/18D+11D+22D+15R+2
HouseNY54/24/18R+29R+24R+26D+1
HouseNY104/24/18R+18D+8D+18D+23
HouseNY174/24/18R+25R+19R+27R+5
HouseNY394/24/18N/AD+67No OppoN/A
HouseNY744/24/18D+67D+74D+86D+17
HouseNY804/24/18D+74D+66D+63R+7
HouseNY1024/24/18N/AR+23R+1D+22
HouseNY1074/24/18N/AR+4R+2D+2
HouseNY1424/24/18N/AR+6R+5D+1
HouseFL395/1/18R+24R+19R+20D+2
HouseFL1145/1/18D+2D+14D+4R+4
SenateMASUF 15/1/18N/AD+65D+726D+7
HouseSC695/1/18N/AR+31No OppoN/A
HouseTX135/5/18R+57R+57R+60R+3
SenateAL265/15/18N/A
HouseAL45/15/18N/A
HousePA485/15/18N/AR+15R+11D+4
HousePA1785/15/18R+22R+3D+1D+14
SenateAR165/22/18N/A
SenateAR295/22/18N/A
HouseAR835/22/18N/A
HouseCT46/4/18D+74D+79D+88D+12
HouseCA396/5/18D vs DD+55D+42R+13
HouseCA456/5/18D+33D+40D+32R+5
HouseCA546/5/18D+63D+75D+77D+8
SenateMO176/5/18R+23R+4D+20D+34
SenateWI16/12/18R+234R+18D+3D+24
HouseWI426/12/18R+17R+14R+8D+8
HouseMS777/10/18N/AN/AN/A
SenateTX197/31/189/19/18D+15D+12
SenateCA328/7/18D+54D+39D+5R+17
SenateAR88/14/18N/AR vs LN/A
SenateTX199/18/18D+15D+12R+6R+20

1 Jungle primary margin between all combined Dem and all combined GOP candidates; runoff is Dem vs. Dem
2 Indicates runoff has not yet occurred; final result undetermined
3 Special was called because 2016 GOP candidate was ruled at the last-minute to be ineligible; using 2014 results for comparison
4 No regular election in 2016; using 2014 results for comparison
5 Democratic candidate on ballot but dropped out of race
6 Election was Dem versus independent
7 ED vote only; state does not record EV by precinct
8 Election was Dem versus Green
9 Election with Rep versus independent
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2017, 12:54:23 PM »

why is everybody in Oklahoma resigning?

From Maxwell:

Quote
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I'm honestly more intrigued by why these all have such varying dates for their respective special elections.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2017, 04:25:05 AM »


Wow, thanks! That certainly makes the process easier, though I imagine I'll be working for awhile on some of these. Looks like a lot of these special elections are non-events, though.

Griff, if you want to keep that fancy table updated, I'll sticky this for awhile.

OK, great!
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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2017, 09:38:59 AM »

With the exception of a few outstanding races, I've managed to get all of the data added for all specials that have occurred so far. I do still need to add many of the upcoming state legislative specials to the list when I get time. I'm worried that I'm going to hit the 11000-character limit pretty soon with all of this coding, though.

I'll also need to go back and correct a discrepancy between D vs D/R vs R races in CA/LA where there are runoffs; I opted to use the jungle primary in the case of CA but forgot to do so this morning when looking through Castro's info provided for LA.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2017, 12:54:25 PM »

OK, I've got all of those announced elections added finally...and I've already had to trim my code once to be under the character limit.

*sigh*

I may have to convert this to an image before long, especially as I add more 2016 results/color-code them. I wish I had thought to make an extra reply at the beginning.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2017, 01:48:46 PM »

OK, I've got all of those announced elections added finally...and I've already had to trim my code once to be under the character limit.

*sigh*

I may have to convert this to an image before long, especially as I add more 2016 results/color-code them. I wish I had thought to make an extra reply at the beginning.

If McGovernForPrez and MT Treasurer are ok with it, I (or they) could delete their 2 posts following your main post, and you could convert your 2nd post in this thread into a "2nd page" for your table?

That may be needed soon - I'm at 10700 characters right now so once I add colors for a few more results it'll be over the limit once again.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2017, 10:02:14 AM »

Griffin - could we do a running average of the swing for both congressional / federal elections and the state elections? Enten has called them a good predictor of the possible swing in 2018.

Which elections specifically did you have in mind? I've been lucky thus far to find presidential margins for most of these districts already compiled, but it's a lot of work to crunch precinct-by-precinct for each district across multiple districts.

I had seen somewhere on 538 where they mentioned that an average of the past two presidential elections was the best determination of how a district would vote in a special.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2017, 09:13:02 PM »

GA SD32 final results added.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2017, 10:21:22 PM »

Awesome job Griffin! By the way, it looks like "Congressional:" and "State Legislative" are making the "Type" column much bigger than it needs to be while forcing other columns into spaces that are clearly too small ("Runoff" for the state legislative races, for example). If you removed them from the charts themselves it might ease up on the space.

Alternatively, I have seen several threads that were much wider than most. Even though I'm pretty sure it's an error, it could be helpful for making a better chart.

(Also, the first two comments are both yours. You don't have to worry about the character limit for a while.)

Thanks for the tip on that! Fixed.

As far as maximum width, the only way (to my knowledge) to stretch it beyond the normal parameters is to either a) use a large image (which squeezes a bit more room out of it) or b) pasting a very long link, which will stretch the page as long as the link is on one line.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2017, 11:00:49 PM »

Can't wait to update the thread with tonight's results! I'll have it sorted through in just a couple of hours when I'm done with my RL work.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2017, 04:45:10 AM »

^^^ Thanks for the help! I went ahead and filled in the rest save for AL-58's presidential margin; I also fixed the DE Senate average.

BTW, what I do is simply round up for the average and then count the swing from there. So R+2 & D+13 = D+11; divided by 2 D+5.5 -> D+6.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2017, 02:06:53 AM »

Updated congressionals. I'll get around to doing the 2 state legislative races tomorrow (unless somebody beats me to it).
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2017, 05:47:13 PM »

Oklahoma races added.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2017, 05:06:39 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2017, 05:08:23 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

NH's Merrimack 18 will have an election tonight between Kris Schultz (D) and Michael Feeley (R). For reference, the Democrat won 56-44 last year. Small electorates here, though: I could see almost any imaginable result here tonight.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2017, 09:14:55 PM »

NH's Merrimack 18 will have an election tonight between Kris Schultz (D) and Michael Feeley (R). For reference, the Democrat won 56-44 last year. Small electorates here, though: I could see almost any imaginable result here tonight.

Schultz wins 78-22 (284-82).
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2017, 09:11:37 AM »
« Edited: July 21, 2017, 09:13:29 AM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

Is there an aggregated average somewhere in the thread that I somehow missed?

Excluding a few situations where something went off-track (one candidate dropping out after winning the primary, etc):

State legislative: 11.7-point swing
Congressional: 15.4-point swing

Total: 12.3-point swing
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2017, 11:06:28 PM »

Elections tonight in New Hampshire's State Senate District 10 and in Massachusetts' Senate Middlesex District 4.

In New Hampshire, the Democrat won by 10 points (the Dem won this district by 2 in 2016; Clinton won by less than 1 point).

In Massachusetts, the election came down to a Democrat versus a Green; the Democrat won with 88% of the vote; no Republican qualified. In 2016, Clinton won this district by 29 points.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2017, 03:15:18 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2017, 03:21:39 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7). More was spent during this jungle primary than in all other races in the district going back to 2000 - combined.

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #19 on: August 03, 2017, 03:31:18 PM »

WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7).

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?

I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections.

It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here.

In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate.

Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date).

However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle.

In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money.
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Adam Griffin
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*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2017, 03:37:51 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2017, 03:39:54 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7).

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?

I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections.

It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here.

In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate.

Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date).

However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle.

In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money.
Adam, that was a primary, not a general election for WA

It was a "jungle primary", which I do not consider to be a real primary; essentially, what they call a "general election" in this situation is a run-off, as it presumably will be for all elections held in November 2017 (I don't believe there are any regularly-scheduled state elections in WA in the odd years).

If all parties/candidates are running on the same ballot and a candidate can win a majority, that should be that. Otherwise, let each party hold its own primary and nominate accordingly; literally no point to the jungle primary if you can't get a win on the first-round.

I think this is one situation where my state actually got run-offs right. Georgia actually does utilize jungle primaries in one specific instance: state legislative elections. Candidates can declare and run as Republican, Democratic or "Non-Partisan" (the only instance in which a candidate can run under such a label) and all are on the same ballot. If one person gets 50%+1, then there is no runoff.
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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,092
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Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2017, 03:41:06 PM »

Adam, I"m 90% sure if someone gets 50%+1 there is still a run off, this is the CA system

Yes, that's what I'm saying is ridiculous: the Democratic candidate in WA-45 won approximately 51% of the vote and will still have to run for election in November.

If you're going to make all parties/candidates run on the same ballot, then you might as well eliminate any need for a run-off (you can call it a "general" if you want, but that is what it is in actuality) if one candidate actually gets a majority in a crowded field consisting of all possible contenders.
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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,092
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Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2017, 10:33:31 PM »

Here are tonight's results from IA & MO:

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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,092
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Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2017, 04:44:27 AM »

You have OK SD 44 listed as being today in the OP, but that election happened months ago (Democrats won).

Fixed.



Looks like Oklahoma Democrats pick up yet another seat in the State House tonight - the third one this year.

TypeStateDistDateRunoff'16 Mar'16 P MarSpecial MarSwing (Avg)
HouseOK469/12/17R+20R+10D+21D+36
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2017, 04:49:08 AM »
« Edited: September 13, 2017, 04:50:59 AM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

As a sidenote, if I have missed any elections that have occurred this year that aren't on the sheet above, please let me know. Castro was kind enough to give me a comprehensive list of upcoming specials back in May - and I have updated these figures as the elections roll around - but I'll admit that I haven't actually kept tabs on any special elections scheduled since then unless they somehow inadvertently crossed my radar.

P.S.: I finally had to convert the results post to an image format because I ran out of characters. The pastebin link above that has the original forum code in it, however.
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