US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[JacobNC]

Since the first district has fallen below 50% black since the last census, does that mean we don't have to include a new 50% black district in redistricting?

[JacobNC]

I don't see any way for the NC GOP to pick up more than 2 seats in 2012.  Larry Kissell and Brad Miller will be fairly easy to take out - and Ellmers' seat can be shored up, but beyond that... it will be difficult for Republicans to win any more seats.

I think Heath Shuler will survive even if Asheville is removed from his district.  The democrats in Asheville really don't like him anyway.  He'll win as long as there's not another wave election like 2010.  WNC is kind of a funny area politically - unlike some other ancestrally democratic areas in the south, the counties that straddle the Tennessee border (Jackson, Swain, Madison & Yancey in particular) are around 95% white and yet they barely went for McCain.  Most people probably perceive this area as being kinda back-woodsy and hillbilly-ish, but the white people are much more liberal here than they are around most of the rest of NC.

Larry Kissell is probably a goner, unfortunately.  He seemed like a sincere politician (he left his job as a high school teacher and ran a very grassroots campaign for congress), but his vote against health care angered the Charlotte and Fayetteville democrats who put him into office and he's not popular among Republicans either.  He did support DADT repeal and some other Democratic initiatives - but then again, he also supported Heath Shuler for speaker. :/

Mike McIntyre will survive wherever Lumberton is.  He is wildly popular among Native Americans and rural white democrats.  I think he's also pretty popular among African Americans - even though he voted against most of the Obama agenda he holds these MLK day parades every year and got Rep. John Lewis to come to Wilmington to speak about the civil rights movement.  He's a likable politician, at least.

Miller is definitely a goner.  He hasn't been getting much bipartisan support over the past few elections.  He actually drew the 13th district for himself to run in in 2001 when he was a state legislator... karma, I guess.

[JacobNC]

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting? 

Little likelihood; Registered democrats outnumber Republicans in North Carolina, by pretty good margins in Shuler and McIntyre's districts, I think.  It's kind of silly, really, Heath Shuler has said he is very proud to be a democrat, even though he agrees with Republicans on just about everything.  There's a lot of people like that in Western NC.

The NC GOP might have to make McIntyre's district safer for him, actually, to dilute the Democratic areas of Kissell's district (Anson, Scotland, Hoke & Cumberland Counties).  He probably would survive a primary challenge, even with a more liberal district, with the massive support he gets from Native Americans and rural voters.

[JacobNC]

Here's an unrealistic map designed to get rid of our friend Patrick McHenry (take notes for 2020, NC Democratic Legislators!)





District 1: G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC

62/38 Barack Obama (formerly 62/37 Barack Obama)
65/35 Democratic

47.0% Black
46.8% White

I'm not a legal expert but I think since the 1st district fell below 50% black already it doesn't have to be 50% black next decade.  It's still black plurality.



District 2: OPEN
TILT DEMOCRATIC

51/48 Barack Obama (formerly 52/47 Barack Obama)
51/49 Democratic

67% White
21% Black
9% Hispanic

This seat follows I-40 from Raleigh to Wilmington.  It's coverage is much different from the current 2nd CD, but it's demographics are similar.  Anywho, this seat favors Democrats one of two ultra-conservatives (Renee Ellmers or Ilario Pantano) would be running here.  They both have some extremely radical views, but at least Ellmers is not a war criminal.  Ellmers barely won in a wave year against a Congressman who beat up kids on the side of the street, so she's not exactly a strong incumbent.



District 3: Walter Jones (R-Farmville)
SAFE REPUBLICAN

62/37 John McCain (formerly 61/38 John McCain)
59/41 Republican

77% White
15% Black

Walter Jones is without a doubt the biggest RINO of the 112th Congress, he's very anti-war and he voted against the Ryan budget because he wants to protect Medicare, he also voted against off-shore drilling.  I think the demographics here favor him in a Republican primary, so this district is safe for him.



District 4: OPEN SEAT
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

55/44 Barack Obama (formerly 63/37 Barack Obama)
54/46 Democratic

64% White
22% Black
9% Hispanic

Open seat, but David Price may choose to run here since most of his current district lies within these boundaries.



District 5: OPEN SEAT
TOSS UP

50/49 Barack Obama
50/50 Republican

68% White
20% Black
9% Hispanic

Either party could win here; if Foxx runs in this district it would be lean Democratic.



District 6: Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk)
SAFE REPUBLICAN

68/30 John McCain
67/33 Republican

86% White

Safe Republican, but not necessarily for Foxx.  Coble, McHenry, Foxx & Ellmers might all run in this cross-state district.



District 7: Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton) vs. Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC

54/46 Barack Obama (formerly 52/47 John McCain)
57/43 Democratic

49.8% White
30.7% Black
8.9% Native American
7.7% Hispanic

This district becomes majority-minority.  McIntyre would own this district because of his popularity in the rural areas, even in a primary.  Voting record aside - he's a good fit for Fayetteville too.  Ellmers lives in this district but she probably wouldn't run here.



District 8: Larry Kissell (D-Biscoe)
TOSS UP

50/49 Barack Obama (formerly 52/47 Barack Obama)
51/48 Republican

65% White
23% Black
8% Hispanic

This is about the best district that can be drawn for Kissell.  He could win here in a general, but he's going to have a tough time anywhere in a primary.



District 9: Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte)
SAFE REPUBLICAN

61/39 McCain
64/36 Republican

82% White

The popular former Mayor of Charlotte would win very easily here.  If she retired McHenry might go for this seat.



District 10: Mel Watt (D-Charlotte) vs. Patrick McHenry (R-Cherryville)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC

58/41 Barack Obama (formerly 57/42 John McCain)
57/43 Democratic

56% White
30% Black
10% Hispanic

McHenry's district drops a lot of ground to the new 6th CD and takes in a lot of Charlotte.  Mel Watt would likely run and win here, though I don't know how he'd feel about running in a white-majority district (he once called Ralph Nader "another arrogant f***ing white man").



District 11: Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC

51/48 John McCain (formerly 52/47 John McCain)
51/49 Republican

87% White

Good district for Shuler as long as he survives the primary.  A more liberal Democrat might be able to win here, too, given the trend in Asheville.



District 12: Howard Coble (R-Greensboro)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

56/43 Barack Obama (formerly 71/29 Barack Obama)
53/47 Democratic

69% White
19% Black

A win for Coble is not out of the question here (I think this district would've gone for Richard Burr in 2010) but Coble's pretty darn old so he might just retire.



District 13: Brad Miller (D-Raleigh)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

55/44 Barack Obama (formerly 59/41 Barack Obama)
53/47 Democratic

67% White
20% Black
8% Hispanic

Miller, who looks to be the loser in this year's real redistricting, would likely win in this fantasy district.

[JacobNC]

Worth noting:

McIntyre & Etheridge both got around 70% in 2002 and 2004, good Republican years.  It would be difficult for Etheridge to mount a comeback now, since he's voted for Obamacare and beat up kids on the sidewalk; but McIntyre still has a good chance of winning.  Especially against Ilario Pantano.

Kissell has a good chance of holding on too.  The 8th is a very blue-collar area, and Democrats have an edge in voter registration.

In other news, I should respect Mel Watt for standing up for other North Carolina Democrats after the Republicans gave him a 78% Obama district:

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[JacobNC]

The 1st district does not have to be drawn into Durham/Raleigh to be black plurality.  And it should not be.

[JacobNC]

Since I'm a n00b at Apple Computers and I haven't figured out picture editing yet, this is the best you're gonna get:



Not too erose, eh?  The 1st is black plurality and it locks up with the 3rd quite nicely.  Most of those erose peninsulas are (or were) required by the VRA anyway.

Edit: the numbers are a little hard to read; among VAP it's 46.9 black and 46.5 white.

[JacobNC]

I would make the 12th district as compact as possible and give the Huntersville/Lake Norman area of Northern Mecklenburg County and the Matthews/Pineville area of Southern Mecklenburg to the 9th.