LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[JacobNC]

Do you think the jungle primary is good or bad for Landrieu?  (It will be held on election day Nov. whatever, right?)  I doubt she would be able to get over 50% with the excitement on the Republican side, conservative Democrats & Republicans would have more non-Landrieu choices.  Unless the Republicans running all suck, and people just vote for Landrieu anyway.

[JacobNC]

Interesting that you mention John Fleming - he voted Friday to dump Sandy victims, denying them federal aid.  That doesn't sound like someone who wants to win in Louisiana, and New Orleans would obviously be NOTHING if it weren't for the federal assistance it received after Katrina.

However, it could potentially help him in a Republican/Tea Party situation where he wants to become the Republican "nominee" by getting to the right of all the other Republicans.  I still don't know, though.

[JacobNC]

Miles, do you think NC-06 could be competitive if Howard Coble ever retires?  I was just looking through some results and it looks like there were several Democrats who won or came close to winning it on the state level; it looks like even Elaine Marshall came close in 2012.  What do you think?

[JacobNC]

NC-09 is going to be tougher because it is the only part of North Carolina that is always more Republican down-ballot.  NC-06 is much more Democratic down ballot.

[JacobNC]

Who do you think would run if Coble retired?

Coble has already had a few younger Republicans run against him in the primary over the last few cycles. If he retires, I think there would be a clown car Republican primary.

Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow ran against him from the far right both in 2010 and 2012; I'm pretty sure he'd run again if he seat was open.

A better candidate, IMO, would be either Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger or his son, Phil Berger Jr, both from Rockingham County. In fact, when Republicans released their original redistricting map, the Democrats accused them of redrawing NC-13 specifically for Berger Jr. Under the modified map, much of that 13th was transferred to Coble's 6th.

Other than the Bergers, most other Republican State Senators in that area only have 1 or 2 terms under their belts.

On the Democratic side, Greensboro mayor Robbie Perkins would probably be the best guy. I don't Democrats would have any other A teamers here.

Former State Treasurer Richard Moore is from Granville County.  He would be a good candidate.

[JacobNC]

When people find out that she's more than just a face in an elevator, she might not be so popular.

[JacobNC]

^^Good nickname, but too confusing, since here on USelectionatlas I don't know if Red refers to Democrats or Republicans.

[JacobNC]

I don't like Dan Forest but he did have some slightly clever yard signs that played off of the movie Forest Gump - with slogans "Run, Forest, Run!" and "Lieutenant Dan"

[JacobNC]

Joe Sam Queen's district voted for Obama in 2008, and it was probably very close in 2012.  He shouldn't be in much trouble unless he's a weak candidate.

[JacobNC]

Not that I agree with McIntyre on this, but it probably plays well in the district:

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I think Mike McIntyre is the last true Dixiecrat/boll-weevil whatever you want to call it.  I think the other Blue Dogs, Matheson and Barrow, are more moderate at heart but vote conservative because of their districts.  Even they have been more liberal on social issues than most Republicans.  McIntyre is a conservative at heart, though.  If it weren't for the fact that Hoyer/Pelosi have promised him the Agriculture chairmanship and he'd get destroyed in a Republican primary I don't know that he'd have an interest in being in Democratic party politics.

[JacobNC]

To get the Lumbee out of the southeastern district, you'd have to go back to 1882:



I can't find a historical map where Asheville isn't in the westernmost district.

^ I could be wrong but I didn't even think Asheville was incorporated until the early 1900s.

An interesting map to see would be how the 2012 races played out in the 7th district that was drawn over to Carteret County in Rucho's first map last year.  Obviously, with Jones skewing the vote in Carteret and Onslow Counties, we wouldn't be able to get an accurate measure on how McIntyre would have done.  Also he would have likely faced Pantano, who may have done slightly better around Wilmington than Rouzer did.

[JacobNC]

McIntyre has a great record on military issues and is the third highest Democrat on Armed Services, so I think he would have done well in Onslow County.

But you have to consider McIntyre's likely opponent, Pantano, was a marine at Lejeune, I think.  But the fact that the map didn't split New Hanover would have been in McIntyre's favor, as he likely would have won about 60% of the vote in that county.

I thin the same thing.  Cateret and Onslow are far more swing able for Dems than exurban Johnston county.

I don't know about that.  A lot of the downballot Democratic candidates last year like Marshall, Wood, Cowell only lost Johnston by single digits while losing Carteret by thirty points.

[JacobNC]

McIntyre has a great record on military issues and is the third highest Democrat on Armed Services, so I think he would have done well in Onslow County.

But you have to consider McIntyre's likely opponent, Pantano, was a marine at Lejeune, I think.  But the fact that the map didn't split New Hanover would have been in McIntyre's favor, as he likely would have won about 60% of the vote in that county.

I thin the same thing.  Cateret and Onslow are far more swing able for Dems than exurban Johnston county.

I don't know about that.  A lot of the downballot Democratic candidates last year like Marshall, Wood, Cowell only lost Johnston by single digits while losing Carteret by thirty points.

Interesting.  I've always thought Johnston was an exurban Raleigh area that wouldn't vote Dem no matter what.

Raleigh suburbs have been creeping into Johnston County in the last decade or so but there are still a lot of so-called "Jesse Helms Democrats" in Johnston.

[JacobNC]

As for Alexander receiving 43% of the black vote, Miles, do you know how they calculated that?  Is there data on how much of the black vote other Republicans received?

[JacobNC]

The NRSC is going to attack Hagan on two new things: the welfare drug testing and the war on coal.

Seriously? They're gonna have to do better than that. Even McCrory agrees with her on the drug testing issue. I'm pretty pro-coal myself, but I'm not sure how they'll justify the war on coal attack line on her; maybe they were confusing NC with WV or KY? Obviously, coal mining is a huge economic driver in NC:

I always thought coal was huge in western NC/eastern TN.  You learn something new every day, I guess.

Actually, our mountain people are pro-environment.  Heath Shuler voted for cap and trade.

[JacobNC]

She seems to have a way of making herself seem out of touch with her district like when she went to a shelter in Raleigh to volunteer after the tornadoes in 2011, instead of somewhere in her own storm ravaged Harnett county.

She represented much of Raleigh from 2011-2013.

[JacobNC]

I think Shuler could have gotten re-elected there in 2012, though.  I think if he had matched his 2010 numbers in the old part of the district and matched Obama in the new part, that would have put him over the top.

[JacobNC]

Bill Cassidy needs to start begging the guys from Duck Dynasty for their endorsement.

[JacobNC]

Didn't Hayden Rogers take a job on Joe Manchin's staff?

[JacobNC]

The issues section of Barfield's website has literally dozens of grammatical errors.  Lol.

[JacobNC]

I'm pretty sure Barfield's entrance into the race in the first place factored into McIntyre's retirement decision.

Yep, I'm still pissed at him for that.  And we've got another traitor running in NC-08 - Antonio Blue, who launched a write-in campaign against Kissell in 2012.  I hope they both get crushed.