2014 Senate and House Predictions

[JacobNC]

^^I'm surprised you think Matheson will fare worse in 2014 than 2012.  2012 was the absolute worst year a Democrat could run in probably the history of Utah.  Although Romney was not too popular nationally, he was Utah's "favorite son" - the first Mormon presidential candidate, and Republican turnout was much higher than in any past year.

I don't think anyone can predict the results of 2014 yet but I can say which seats are the most likely to be lost by both parties:

SENATE:
Democrats (most likely to least likely):
1. West Virginia
2. South Dakota
3. Louisiana
4. Alaska

I don't think there's really any danger for Dems beyond that.
Republicans:
1. Maine
2. Kentucky - outside chance, only if it's a really good year for Dems

HOUSE

Most vulnerable Democrats:

1. West Virginia 3 (if Rahall retires to run for Senate)
2. Florida 18 - Patrick Murphy (if Republicans get a sane candidate)
3. A bunch of seats that are very marginal and could become vulnerable if it's a bad year for Dems:
- California (Peters, Ruiz, Bera)
- Arizona (Synema, Kirkpatrick)
- Texas (Gallego)
- New York (S.P. Maloney)
- North Carolina (McIntyre)

Most vulnerable Republicans:
1. California 31 - Gary Miller
2. Michigan 11 - Kerry Bentivolio
3. Illinois 14 - Rodney Davis
4. Michigan 1 - Benishek
5. Indiana 2 - Jackie Walorski
6. Nebraska 2 - Lee Terry
7. Kentucky 6 - Andy Barr
8. West Virginia 2 - OPEN SEAT
9. Florida 2 - Southerland