I see the 2010 Lt. Gov. Race as a floor for Cooper in this race.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=37&f=0&off=6&elect=0Maybe McCrory does a little bit better in Charlotte (though not nearly as well as he did in 2012) and Cooper does slightly better in eastern NC, around Rocky Mount, Wilson and Roanoke Rapids. But with Hillary on the ballot getting at least 47% in NC and McCrory's image no longer perfect as it was, there's not much room for McCrory to win. A little bit of room, but not much.