Washington state megathread

[Seattle]

Now that the count is final, my Seattle precincts:

Clinton: 341 (87.2%)
Trump: 37 (9.5%)
Johnson: 10 (2.6%)
Stein: 3 (.7%)

Voter turnout was very good, returned ballots: 402/425.

and my other one:

Clinton: 349 (91.4%)  LOL 95.9-4.1, in the two-way
Stein: 15 (3.9%)
Trump: 8 (2.1%)
Johnson: 7 (1.8%)
Castle: 2 (.5%)
La Riva: 1 (.3%)

Turnout is typical of a university area with a high turnover of addresses. 399/548.

It looks like that CD precinct that initially cast no votes for Trump now has him with 1 vote. That's his worst in the city.

[Seattle]

Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

[Seattle]

Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

You are right- it is in 2017. The Ds should gain control of the Senate then. It'll be (23+1) - 25?

RI, amazing maps!

[Seattle]

Ugh, I hope not. I'm no big fan of McMorris-Rodgers, but she was always competent. I don't like Baumgartner. If he doesn't run, does Parker?

Pakootas again for the Ds?

[Seattle]

Rebecca Saldaña chosen to replace Jayapal in the LD37. I believe she works for the Puget Sound Sage and comes from a similar background as Jayapal, social activism (environmental/equity vs. immigration).

She'll face fierce competition come the special/election time.

[Seattle]

Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

[Seattle]

Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up

I agree. But I also really want to see Dow elected, so I may be biased.

There's also Derek Kilmer who I think will end up in the Senate eventually.

[Seattle]

I've always thought DelBene would follow Cantwell, except that she's 55, to Cantwell's 58.
Which is probably too old, considering Murray will likely run again in 2022, and I imagine so will Cantwell in 2024.

[Seattle]

Burgess is not running for re-election btw.

He's a great moderating voice on the council and is a reliable pro-density vote, which makes up for some of his less than great stances on lets say the tunnel and panhandling.

I don't really know any of the other candidates other than Jon Grant, who I dislike greatly.

[Seattle]

Agreed. As of now, there aren't any candidates that can take him out, but that doesn't mean that wont change. I don't think Oliver will be that person, but who knows. Seattle's thrown out it's last 2 incumbent mayors over issues that in retrospect, were pretty silly and less serious than homelessness and housing affordability.

[Seattle]

The '13 continually cracked me up.

'17 could be something related to car tabs in honor of the Republican anti-transit crusade against Sound Transit and Seattle.

Or perhaps something about our future governor, Dow Constantine, and his immaculate hair.

[Seattle]

If Auburn and Kent go the way of the Eastside, then LD-40 may very well be on LD-44's track in 10 years from now. Fain, a well-liked moderate incumbent, much like Litzow, keeps hanging on until the eventual political tide knocks him out.

Also, O'Bann needs to be seriously challenged. He only won by 6-7 points in a D+14 district. I think Christine Kilduff would make for a good challenger.

[Seattle]

Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.

[Seattle]

If Murray becomes nonviable, I expect Walkinshaw to run on an urbanist platform. He's got nothing to lose, and would be my ideal candidate (Rob Johnson needs to stay on the council, he's doing good work. Plus, he seems more like a legislator than an executive).

I don't dislike Nikkita Oliver, but her comments on supporting 25% manditory affordable housing in all developments is scary- unless you want to see Seattle reach SF levels of affordability. She also seems to be focusing more on the affordable requirement side than the more important upzone side, which further puts in to doubt her commitment to actually tackling the affordable housing crisis.

[Seattle]

Mike McSchwinn just tweeted "Keep Seattle. McGinn 2017"

This may surprise many considering my fairly centrist views but I'd be very happy to see McGinn back in the Mayor's office. For as much of an abrasive weirdo as he is he had serious backbone on urbanism and the arena.

Agreed, he's got my support, perhaps. Let's see what he runs on.

[Seattle]

Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council

[Seattle]

That being said, if she gets a kook like John Grant in the runoff she has a good shot. Mosquera would probably beat her

I'm actually starting to think it might be Grant's race to lose, honestly.

Ugh

Really? That's not the feeling I get. Sure, he has the most name recognition, but as a candidate he's less well liked than during his 2014 run. Idk, it's early on and there's been no polling.

[Seattle]

Eastern Washintonians, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue

[Seattle]

State senator Bob Hasegawa, representing parts of South Seattle has entered the mayoral race:

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-bob-hasegawa-running-for-seattle-mayor/

In even more interesting news, today at 10:30 AM, Murray will be making an announcement. The buzz I'm hearing is that he will not be running for reelection. Though that could be totally off.

[Seattle]

Murray out.

[Seattle]

1. Walkinshaw (now's his time)
2. Cary Moon
3. McGinn
4. Oliver
5. Hasegawa

[Seattle]

She's an urban planner/landscape architect:

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/04/19/25084739/cary-moon-is-running-for-mayor-of-seattle-an-interview-with-the-brand-newest-murray-challenger

[Seattle]

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp

And Jenny Durkan is running for mayor: http://crosscut.com/2017/05/former-u-s-attorney-jenny-durkan-is-running-for-mayor/

I don't think Harrell will run. He knows he can't win AND he is really not a strong candidate. He barely won his last election against a nobody candidate (who to her credit, turned out to be pretty good).

Lorena likely won't get in, but she'd be a decent candidate. O'Brien definitely isn't going to jump in with his buddy - McGinn - running.

[Seattle]

1) Still Cary Moon, who's an actual urbanist.
2) Durkan, she could rise/fall depending on her housing/transit views
3) McGinn, what does Keep Seattle even mean??? That kind of worries me.
4) Oliver, I like her as a candidate and her unequivocal BLM agenda, I just wish she could hop aboard the housing train
5) Hasegawa, no, just no.

Candidates not in:

Harrell: light weight, no.
Gonzalez: she's building her name and chops, I agree with KS, she's got a bright future. Would love to see her run in 4 or 8 years.
Walkinshaw: Dream candidate. He's FBBPW (Flawless Beautiful Brady Pinero Walkinshaw)
Farrell: who now? That's what most people probably think. I imagine she'd do a fine job.
Pederson: yes, but I don't think he has any desire to leave Olympia
Kim: Negative chance. What does a LM even do? Help craft policy?

[Seattle]

Well, the clown car grows: Jessyn Farrell is officially in: http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-rep-jessyn-farrell-joins-crowded-race-for-seattle-mayor/

I like her a lot, but as I said earlier, she's remarkably unknown. Perhaps STB and Seattle Subway have enough influence to get her name out, which could in turn get The Urbanist on her side, idk.