538 Model Megathread

[SteveRogers]

Johnson will be lucky to break 3% nationally.

Can we stop dismissing Johnson? He has a legitimate shot at breaking 10% this year, polls are showing a trend around 6-9% already.

Yes, but if he doesn't keep climbing to the 15% that he needs to get into the debates, then it is equally likely that his support collapses in the last month or so of the campaign and he ends up with closer to 3%.