538 Model Megathread (user search)

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2016 U.S. Presidential Election

538 Model Megathread (search mode)

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Topic: 538 Model Megathread (Read 85207 times)

Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp

Posts: 6,136

Re: 538 Model Megathread

« on: August 07, 2016, 12:19:39 PM »

Wow, a prediction that's more D than mine. I don't think SD or ND go Clinton even in the Hillaryslide.

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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp

Posts: 6,136

Re: 538 Model Megathread

« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2016, 09:31:06 PM »

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I just can't see him taking NH and the Maine seat.

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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp

Posts: 6,136

Re: 538 Model Megathread

« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2016, 01:26:55 AM »

Well, this is my official projection

Right now Hillary leads with lean Democrat with 273 after all the leans. Trump has to win all 5 of the remaining tossups, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina.

Hillary is up in Florida, North Carolina and Nevada, Trump is up in Arizona and Ohio still.

I estimate Trump's chance of victory at 2 percent.

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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp

Posts: 6,136

Re: 538 Model Megathread

« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 12:33:25 PM »

Well, taking into account error margins and sample sizes, that's not a great confidence that the election can distinguish between a margin of less than two points. It can do that about half the time.

That would mean that half the time - Clinton would lose half the time, but the other half has Clinton winning. Would estimate 75-25 based on that measure.

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