NV-02 special election: 9/13

[BigSkyBob]

Well, well:

In 2010, the first few days of early voting In Washoe were R+7, but Reid won by 5.

Now, the first few days of early voting are R+14.5.

Assuming the winning margin stays the same,

Bad assumption. Reid was spending massive amounts on money are turning out Reid voters regardless of political party. That is, Reid identified Reid voters and worked to turn them out. The incremental Republican his organization turned out was credited to Republican turnout, but, really ought to have been credited to Reid turnout. There simply isn't the money for such a ground game in this special election.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[BigSkyBob]

Because it's a Republican district and is inconsequential in the end; Nevada will be 2 - 2 after 2012 anyway, regardless of what happens here.

No, what happens in Clark County will be independent of whom wins in Northern Nevada.

[BigSkyBob]

Amodei is dominating the early voting.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Early Vote a Bad Omen for Harry Reid

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43835.html

(not that I'd bet any money on a Dem winning NV-2.)

Angle however did win NV-02, if I recall. The problem was NV-01.

Not by enough though (you need 59% to 63% of the vote there to be on target for a statewide win) and she probably lost the third district (which you need 49% to 52% for a statewide win).



Keep in mind that it is very important for Amodei to win Washoe or to tie it 50-50. If he loses it by a wider margin and only narrowly wins a squeaker district wide, he could have problems in 2012. This district currently contains heavily GOP exurbs in Clark county and the cow country, of which all of the former and about half (territory wise) of the latter, will be removed from the district and placed into one of the Clark seats (probably the third).

Depending on how you define "cow country,"---CarsonCity is an urban area complete with suburbs--either very little of the "cow country" will be lost in redistricting,  or  your analysis misses the fact that Amodei can reasonably expect to win by a large margin in the Carson City area, even if he loses a chunk of Central Nevada. He won't have to finish near even in Washoe to win this election, or in 2012.

[BigSkyBob]

Please read my scenario again. If Amodei wins by 1% or less in the current district and then the new lines move it 2 to 3 maybe more points towards the democrats, he will be in trouble in 2012. He may not lose, but he will be in trouble. A lot of it depends on how the map is drawn, but unless the court goes crazy and draws a LV to Reno seat, NV-02 will become more Democratic then it is now, by virtue of geography and population distribution.

1) If Amodei wins by 1%, and the district shifts a few points, as the incumbent, he will remain the favorite.

2) If Amodei wins by 3%, he will not acheive anything near parity in Washoe county, which is the "scenario" you offered.

[BigSkyBob]

No that is not my scenario, at all. Try again, BSB.

Here are you exact words:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, it isn't that important that Amodei wins close to 50% in Washoe county since he can reasonably expect to win by large marjorities in the Carson City suburbs, and, Northern rural Nevada, which will be in his district next time.

[BigSkyBob]

No that is not my scenario, at all. Try again, BSB.

Yes, it was your scenario. Perhaps you meant to "wide margin" rather than "wider margin?"

Whatever you meant to say, you are simply wrong in noting Amodei needs to break even in Washoe County.

[BigSkyBob]

No that is not my scenario, at all. Try again, BSB.

Here are you exact words:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, it isn't that important that Amodei wins close to 50% in Washoe county since he can reasonably expect to win by large marjorities in the Carson City suburbs, and, Northern rural Nevada, which will be in his district next time.

But heavily conservative and rural Central Nevada will be removed, right?

Here's the numbers. The district will be of about 675,000 people, of whom,  421,000 will be from Washoe County. That leaves 254,000 people in the rest of Northern Nevada. Since many of those counties with those 254,000 people are heavily Republican, Amodei can afford to lose Washoe County both now, and in 2012. He simply does need to "tie" Washoe County either in this special election, or 2012.

The loss of people in Central Nevada will be about 75,000. That is a small fraction of non-Washoe Northern Nevada.  [The district also loses parts of rural Clark County as well.]

[BigSkyBob]

Man, I wish PPP would poll there ...

I think this race will turn out closer than most people think (Marshall could be within 5 points).

I think it'll be closer than that... Marshall is running basically the same campaign as Hochul did in NY-26 and that was an R+6 district. This one is R+5.

Two bad calls.

[BigSkyBob]

NV-02 is less Republican than NY-26, so I still think its a tossup.

Interesting call. Didn't quite work out.

[BigSkyBob]

Well, well:

In 2010, the first few days of early voting In Washoe were R+7, but Reid won by 5.

Now, the first few days of early voting are R+14.5.

Assuming the winning margin stays the same, it's Amodei by 2.5 points.

I don't really think Marshall can win this thing, she'll probably lose by 10% in the end.

Much better call.

[BigSkyBob]

Man, I wish PPP would poll there ...

I think this race will turn out closer than most people think (Marshall could be within 5 points).

I think it'll be closer than that... Marshall is running basically the same campaign as Hochul did in NY-26 and that was an R+6 district. This one is R+5.

Two bad calls.

That was before anybody polled the race.

The measure of a good pundit is the ability to project races before reading any polls.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]

[BigSkyBob]

NV-02 is less Republican than NY-26, so I still think its a tossup.

Interesting call. Didn't quite work out.

I know you really enjoy calling me out, Bobby, but, at the time, it looked like a competitive race.

At the time, you claimed it was not merely "competitive," but, rather, that it was a "tossup."  That was quite an interesting claim for a district with a Republican PVI.

[BigSkyBob]

Hey, Republicans haven't exactly had a stellar track record of holding on to their own seats in special elections of late, so people who expected this to be closer (or even an upset) should be forgiven.  It's easy for Republicans to gloat now, but a few months ago B.S.Bob was nowhere near this thread...

1) A few months ago I was sweating it. Had I posted, I wouldn't have grossly overestimated Amodei chances, like many of the Democrats here vastly overestimated Marshall's chances.


2) I'm not reviewing predictions to "gloat." I reviewed the predictions to discuss the relative accuracies of the posters here.


3) "Gloating" isn't really necessary. I sat through the nomination of George H W Bush, George W Bush, and the resulting elections of 1992, 2006, and 2008.  We all know how much last night sucked for the Democrats. There is no point in rubbing it since it already sucks so badly. It was a pretty painful night, right?

[BigSkyBob]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

Yeah, Sam meant the opposite. Actually Romney's mormonism won't hurt him most anywhere out west. In the south and lower midwest, not so sure. Not that it will cause him to lose but it might be worth a point or two there.

Yes, I meant plus not minus, in Nevada context specifically.  It's always been a plus for Harry too.

Reid's being a Mormon, and his claims to being "pro-life" have benefited him politically. His supporters have characterized him by saying, "He's a Mormon, and he's pro-life..."  tapping into Mormon stereotypes of extreme conservativism. The reality is that Reid is hard left.