Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[lilTommy]

Thanks for the recap; i tried to watch the debate last night but CBCnw had it dubed (onviously) but i can't handle that.. and the RadioCanada said it was broadcasting it but instead showed Grand Rire... whatever.
I'm glad to see David performer well, she really was just excited and happy to be there and i think it showed, except whoever did her make-up and wardrobe should be shot, both were unflattering... but thats just my superficial remark

The QS number you need to pay attention to are not the province wide ones, but the MTL ones. The last polls i saw on the island had QS at 9% and 12% (if someone has a more updated number that be great) their only "real" shots are there... SmSj is a target IF they are lucky and well all the ridings they are targeting are held by the PQ so, Gouin is their focus and after the debate that should help David.

For the NPDQ what would help is if they had MNAs cross over and sit but that probably won't happen unless the party makes huge concession to say Khadir and David (for the NPDQ to survive i think QS has to die-off)

[lilTommy]

I think the leaders all did a good job for their supporters.

I think it's risky for the NDP to have a provincial wing. It could create friction with other provincial parties and then ask for their vote on the federal level. It could mostly serve as an alternative for the non-francophone voters who feel hostage to LPQ.

friction? how so? each prov wing as it is now is pretty independant other then the federal ties, thats the "tie that binds" so to speak

[lilTommy]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/story/2012/08/20/quebec-votes-anglophone-voter-turnout-ridings.html

VERY bad news for Charest; if his core supporters (anglos, west island, minorities) don't vote... CAQ or even the PQ could snap up some of these ridings. Could we see an 89' repeat? I know their is no Anglo-centic party this time so that could limit the loss; but if there is such a low turnout that could mean squeaker wins for another party other then the PLQ

[lilTommy]

I remember reading somewhere Khadir and TVA had falling out? or a yelling match? not sure... But the format is not right. I heard their logic was to include leaders of parties"most likely to form government" weak argument.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/story/2012/08/21/quebec-votes-2012-election-voter-turnout-storify.html
The CBC is all over this, probably cause thats their community (anglos), and they are talking about this election; with such a dis-taste for Charest those who didn't vote last time out of the "my vote won't matter" is being replaced with "i can't stand any of them". which is worse? The PQ might not win but CAQ could. Its also something the PLQ should worry about with the NPDQ starting up; places like NDG (from what i've been told, can see) Saint-Henri - Sainte-Anne, Verdun (we've already mentioned these and ok these aren't west island really) But the NDP did win Pierrefond-Dollard, came very close in Lac-Saint-Louis federally so that could (very big stretch at could) win Nelligan and Robert-Baldwin... or give the PLQ a fight.

[lilTommy]

I'm curious, for those leftist who are nationalist, what is more important to you?  Voting PQ because they are more progressive (or, left), or voting Liberal because they are nationalist?  The Green Party is just as right leaning, on policy and the economy, as the Liberals, and the CAQ are even more to the right.  You really have no option.  I think to myself, if the NDP and Liberals, nationally, wanted to split up Canada, but the Conservatives wanted to keep it together, I would still vote NDP because I couldn't bring myself to elect a Conservative government.  I think many Quebecers have this problem.

I've already said, I'd vote QS, first and for most. But I'd vote for a social democrat before i voted for a liberal and if the means voting PQ so be it. Doesn't mean i support sovereignty at all. Actually if you take the votecompass on CBC, you will see that the PQV (Greens) are actually in the same quadrants as QS, ON... infact i was tied PQV and QS so... greens are all over the map really

I think the problem is also that the PQ and PLQ are black and white; while the issue is probably closer to being shades of grey. I'm not a sovereigntist but i do believe in Quebec's right to decide its own status and a 50+1 is the standard. i also believe that if Canada is divisible so is Quebec... a whole other topic eh

Nicolet - wow, i'm surprised too, but ON and QS have an agreement, i think that might help to have given him what 5% or so?

[lilTommy]

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2012/08/31-aout-2012-nouveau-sondage-crop.html

PQ minority; QS 2-4 seats (looking in the race in Laurier-Dorion), i'd assume the 4th riding is Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jacques.

@Peternerdman... that was my result too; b/c i'm more federalist i wound up being about even between PVQ and QS

[lilTommy]

The PLQ always seems to over perform expectations; pundits, particularly on CBC were saying that they were hearing that there was a large quiet PLQ supporter base in francophone quebec who were voting PLQ but didn't want anyone to know. thats explains some of the ridings were seeing the PLQ holding. If we look at some ridings though we see those PLQ wins are very close, only in the #0% range and usually the PQ/CAQ are right there only a few points away... close.

The PQ shot itself in the foot, every time the party mentions sovereignty they lose support, instead of running on a mild social-democratic platform they talk sovereignty and only french here-there-everywhere... the province looks to be past that. They "won" on an anti-charest but not at all because people wanted them. But Marois had to placate her base and she lost the election that way.

If they call an election within a year or two; we have to remember the corruption inquiry should be done AND the NPDQ should be much more organized... what effect would they have on the next election? the PQ and PLQ should be worried about them (if they can get their act together soon)

Good for QS, and they performed well (above 20%) in 3 or so more ridings in Montreal.

[lilTommy]

oh, ummm i should have re-read that before making that comment, sorry about that

2 ridings the PQ (BQ is the federal cousin the Bloq Quebecois)
- Saint-Francois where the PQ won by about 110 votes over the Liberals;
- Charlesbourg and Vanier-Les Rivieres where the CAQ won by about 1100 and 1200 votes

... after that it takes more than a few thousand votes for the Liberals to win seats from what i can see. In fact, 10 of the CAQ wins had the PLQ second but outside Charlesbourg and Vanier-Les Rivieres none were really close.
It would be easier for the PQ to win a majority if say there was another 1-2% swing from the PLQ to the PQ.