Quebec Municipal Elections 2013

[lilTommy]

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/regional/montreal/201211/22/01-4596604-comite-executif-la-coalition-voit-le-jour.php

Applebaum named its executive council, the equivalent of a Cabinet.
3 independants, 3 Union, 3 Vision, 2 Projet.
The important offices were given to independants and to Vision.

That didn't stop Union bleeding, Jocelyn Ann Campbell, the city councillor for Saint-Sulpice (inland Ahuntsic) became an independant. Ahuntsic-Cartierville borough is known for its close races, a couple of them finished by less than 100 votes, including a borough mayor where the 3rd place candidate had 32% of votes (35PM-33UM-32VM), and a city council elected which finished 34PM-33UM-33VM (in Ahuntsic ward, 137 votes between 1st and last).

Jocelyn Ann Campbell herself won by 39 votes over Vision.

At other levels, it also includes the federal seat of Ahuntsic which was a 3-way race and the provincial seat of Crémazie, which is the only true marginal seat on Montreal Island.

so what your saying is this is a very interesting area of Montreal then... what makes it so competitive for the 3 municipal parties?

[lilTommy]

UM continues to crumble.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/regional/montreal/201211/23/01-4597012-les-conseillers-de-lile-bizard-ste-genevieve-quittent-union-montreal-.php

What's the point of the party now anyways? We all know it's not going to be around come next election.

Who's best suited to pick up the UM support? VM to me seems like it might but seems to "separatist" leaning to win over some West Island district. While PM see to be too progressive to win over those same West Island districts... i guess UM might just be around as a rump of West Islanders?
Wrong here?

[lilTommy]

So this is interesting...

http://www.cjad.com/CJADLocalNews/entry.aspx?BlogEntryID=10542157

Union Montreal looks to be falling apart... So that will make what, 30+ independents? that will make governing complicated no? no word if a new party(ies) will be created by this implosion

[lilTommy]

So the Gazette has their page up and running:
https://org62.my.salesforce.com/5003000000RcrwN

CBC has a page:
http://www.cbc.ca/montreal/features/municipal-elections-2013/

Wiki, has their page up too:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_municipal_election,_2013

Candidates for mayor: Considered main contenders
Michel Bédard - Former candidate
Richard Bergeron - Leader of Projet Montréal
Michel Brûlé - Author and publisher
Denis Coderre - Leader of Équipe Denis Coderre
Marcel Côté - Co-founder of SECOR, leader of Coalition Montréal[2] (looks like he is being endorsed by Vision Montreal)
Mélanie Joly - Lawyer
Irois Léger - Former journalist[3]
Clément Sauriol - Freelance worker
Kofi Sonokpon - Aeronautics expert

[lilTommy]

Ahh you beat me Senator... but here's the link with lovely borough maps

A poll out!
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2013/10/06/denis-coderre-trone-au-sommet-des-intentions-de-vote-des-montrealais
It's from Le Journal so a conservative tabloid but...
Coderre - 39%
Bergeron - 23% (Leading in the Centre-Est)
Cote - 17
Joly - 16 (second in the Centre-Ouest & Ouest)

[lilTommy]

I stand corrected, I saw the "Suns" relationship and just figured the paper was a right-wing rag.

Joly (I have a NPD/UCQ friend who looks to be supporting her) should be perfect to siphon votes away from Coderre in the west island and some central areas... but also attracts similar voters who Bergeron is going after. If those two eat each others voters, that could be enough for Coderre to win.
Cote's voters (who by now should just bold lol) are more likely to go Bergeron (who is second in Est, Nord and Sud-Ouest ) then Coderre or Joly no?

[lilTommy]

I gather a lot of NDP supporters will be voting with a split ticket.

Well, most Joly voters will split their ticket, as she has not candidates everywhere. Anyways, it's easy to split votes, depending from wher you live you have 2 (Ville-Marie, the mayor and a city councillor) to 6 votes (Lachine, the mayor, the borough mayor, 2 city councillors and 2 borough councillors (the wards in Lachine are two-seaters)).

I was just going to add that PM has 103 candidates for borough mayors, Councillors and borough Councillors; if Bergeron is that unpalatable, that's the advantage of a party system, you might see a huge increase in members but still lose the city-wide mayor, and maybe that's a good thing for PM. If they lose, they can focus on finding a "better" city-wide mayoral candidate next time... or draft Joly, I don't necessarily see her as being opposed to PM would she be?

[lilTommy]

That is unless PM is a bit of a cult of personality. Is the party nothing without him?

I have a few friends who are working on PM campaigns, The party is very policy right, maybe at the beginning it might have been more Bergeron-centric but at this point the party seems to have grown into something bigger then a personality cult. They run Le Plateau were Bergeron is a city councillor not mayor. Since 2009 the party has developed its own reputation.
BUT i could be wrong, a montrealer might have a different perspective. For a comparison, i do not see this like Jack and the NPD were in 2011 were they were one and the same.

[lilTommy]

Nothing wrong with anti-car campaigning

Not all electors agree, through.

True. It's quite poisonous actually. One of the reasons Ford won in Toronto, on a pro-cars anti-bikes/public transit campaign.

The problem is is ISN'T an anti-car campaign, it's very much a pro-public transit (in PMs case, LRT) pro-bike/pedestrian move. In TO there was never a move to kill off lanes of car traffic and i doubt there is in MTL. BUT conservatives will say it's an attack on cars, individuality and lie to no end about public transit (again, see TO and Ford lying about LRT, comparing it to St. Clair).

[lilTommy]

Nothing wrong with anti-car campaigning

Not all electors agree, through.

True. It's quite poisonous actually. One of the reasons Ford won in Toronto, on a pro-cars anti-bikes/public transit campaign.

The problem is is ISN'T an anti-car campaign, it's very much a pro-public transit (in PMs case, LRT) pro-bike/pedestrian move. In TO there was never a move to kill off lanes of car traffic and i doubt there is in MTL. BUT conservatives will say it's an attack on cars, individuality and lie to no end about public transit (again, see TO and Ford lying about LRT, comparing it to St. Clair).

Well, before being in politics, he was literally anti-car, through.

to be honest, so am i but i wouldn't campaign that way... but i'm not Bergeron, he's a little "zany" for me. But i do generally favour PMs policies.

[lilTommy]

Is Coderre trying to blackmail the Hasidic community or Is he just selling his list of candidates? It's a pretty brash way to campaign, it feels too "your with us or your against us and we won't forget"

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/denis-coderre-video-sparks-criticism-1.2324970

Oh; only one municipal list/party has a full slate, Project Montreal has 102 candidates, the next closest is Equipe Coderre (basically Union) at 99, Coalition Mtl (basically Vision) 96... then Joly with 55. So I think any of the first three could theoretically win a majority, realistically no.

Piper Huggins, former PM councillor in Jeanne-Mance in Plateau is now running under Coalition banner, Must have had a major falling out, was an NDP candidate in 2000 and 2004 Federals

[lilTommy]

Great results for PM; I feel Bergeron should finally take his leave; Joly running second should be the writing on the wall that PM needs new leadership. He can take his leave with his head held high the he build a strong municipal party after this result. BUT it could have been better with a stronger, less polarizing leader
Indies - many being x-Union; i could see a number of them bolting to Coderre now, i'm sure many formed Borough groups not sure about tagging themselves to Coderre, now, i could see them moving about.
Coalition - That was a terrible fall, BUT they still held on to 3 borough mayors (mostly due to their own personalities i feel, Menard and Copeman won, not CM. What was the actual vote # in Sud-Ouest borough mayor? Cause it looks like 28% for PM & CM. Will their be any recounts?... ok just look Dorais has an 8 vote lead over Prince!... i'd ask for a recount
Do we know how the other communities on the island voted?

[lilTommy]

Also, PM candidate defeated the two Councillors who left the party before the election;
Alex Norris in Jeanne-Mance, Le Plateau defeated Piper Huggins and Valerie Plante in Sainte-Maire, Ville-Marie Defeated Pierre Mainville (3rd) AND Louise Harel.

[lilTommy]

Dorais leads with 8 votes but 203 out of 224 boxes reported so many votes left to report.

Saint-Sulpice goes to Coderre by 9 in the end (Projet had been leading). I think Coderre's candidate is the person who will become president of the executive committee.

    

9 votes is way too close, will that cause and automatic recount? or does a candidate need to ask for one?

[lilTommy]

The city council is still not stable.
Now, it's 27 DC, 20 PM, 8 Indies, 6 CM, 4 MJ
Finally, Lorraine Pagé (Mélanie Joly, former union leader) won her seat (Sault-au-Récollet, Ahuutsic-Cartierville) with the last box by 8 votes, when she never lead at any point. This will go to a recount (as the 9 vote victory for Coderre candidate in Saint-Sulpice, Ahuntsic-Cartierville).

Benoit Dorais now has a 110 vote lead with 222/224 polls in, that just about seals it; The only bright spot for CM are their three (most likely) borough mayors, who all by the looks of things won on their personal standings. With Dorais almost losing, i figure due to being attached to CM.

[lilTommy]

Well, let's look each elected councillor of those paries, then, DL.

Mélanie Joly:
Normand Marinacci, borough mayor of Île-Bizard--Sainte-Geneviève. The party control the borough council, too. He is a pre-merger mayor of Île-Bizard and, as such, I suppose he is quite independant from her. He won't move.
Justine McIntyre, Bois-de-Liesse, Pierrefonds-Roxboro. She seems pretty non-descript (locally involved former professional pianist). No clue.
Lorraine Pagé, Sault-au-Récollet, Ahuntsic-Cartierville. A former union leader whose career ended under clouds (she was accused of shoplifting, but won her trial). She didn't bothered to run to retire, I suppose
Steve Shanahan, Peter-McGill, Ville-Marie. Another person with local involvement.

If one of those resign, it would be McIntyre or Shanahan, but I think she will wait a genuine vacancy.

Coalition Montréal, who's left:
Benoît Dorais, mayor of South-West
Réal Ménard, mayor of Mercier--Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, former Bloc MP
Russell Copeman, mayor of Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, former Liberal MNA
Domenico Moschella, Saint-Léonard-East (the Coderre candidate was withdrawn, and he beated Projet 51% to 49%)
Elsie Lefebvre, Villeray, former PQ MNA
Marvin Rotrand, Snowdon, Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, municipal councillor since 1982 for MCM and UM.

I find difficult to believe than all those people would join the same party. It's a random list of people with a previous political career and, because of that, an huge personal vote.

I could see Lorraine Page being approached by PM; she has the "bio" that would fit with the party coming form a union background, she would have a relative easy fit with the party... so would Justine McIntyre an artist/musician (generalizing not knowing too much about either here) As i mentioned i had a number of NDP friends both supporting PM, and to a lesser extent Joly. Now that Equipe Melanie Joly is basically nothing, i could see those more progressives turn towards PM.

CM is a mess; I'd say a break up. the CdN-NDG members (Copeman and Rotrand) start a borough list in all likelihood... If Joly survives as a group she could go after them to join her group. These guys have almost nothing in common with former PQ/BQ members/supporters Dorais, Menard & Lefebvre... a very francophone oriented party could emerge out of those three. Or, if their progressive sides take hold they could try and get in with PM, but i don't know if that would be best for the party... they could just all end up being Indie mayors

[lilTommy]

City wide results for borough mayor (includes Montreal mayoral result in Ville-Marie):

Equipe Coderre: 30.9%
Projet Montreal: 29.3%
Coalition Montreal: 18.2%
Vrai changement: 11.8%
Integrite Montreal: 1.8%
Various borough parties: 7.3%
Independents: 0.7%

It's sad with these numbers that PM only won two Borough mayors and CM won three and EC won 8... someone can correct me though

[lilTommy]

City wide result for council (includes borough mayor results for Outremont and Ile Bizard-Ste Genevieve where there are no separate council races):

Equipe Coderre: 29.43%
Projet Montreal: 29.38% (211 vote difference!)
Coalition Montreal: 18.7%
Vrai changement: 12.9%
Integrite Montreal: 1.5%
Various borough parties: 6.1%
Independents: 1.9%

Not much difference from the borough races.

This looks to reflect the results better: EC 27 PM 20 Indie 8 CM 6 VCJ 4...
Plus i believe two recounts will occur no? one EC leading (Saint-Sulpice) and the other VCJ leading (Sault-au-Recollet), both in Ahuntsic-Cartierville

[lilTommy]

This looks to reflect the results better: EC 27 PM 20 Indie 8 CM 6 VCJ 4...
Plus i believe two recounts will occur no? one EC leading (Saint-Sulpice) and the other VCJ leading (Sault-au-Recollet), both in Ahuntsic-Cartierville

More than that, I think than recounts may happen there (recounts happens if a candidate requests them).
Saint-Sulpice (Ahuntsic-Cartierville): Pierre Desrochers (perhaps the future president of the executive council, EC) won by 9 votes over Martin Bazinet (PM)
Sault-au-Récollet (Ahuntsic-Cartierville): Lorraine Pagé (former union leader, VCM) won by 8 votes over Nathalie Hotte (EC).
Côte-des-Neiges (Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce): Magda Popeanu (PM) won by 77 over Helen Fotopoulos (a important player of the Tremblay era, EC).
South-West mayorship: Benoît Dorais (CM) won by 115 votes over Jason Prince (PM).
Saint-Léonard-East (Saint-Léonard): Domenico Moschella (CM) won by 80 votes over Roberta Peressini (PM).
Saint-Jacques (Ville-Marie): Richard Bergeron (PM leader) won by 91 votes over Philippe Schnobb (former TV host, EC).
François-Perrault (Villeray--Saint-Michel--Parc-Extension): Sylvain Ouellet (PM) won by 8 votes over Claude Bricault (EC)

Found some more, mostly borough councillor possible recounts...
Outremont Borough Councillor for Joseph-Beaubien: Celine Forget won by 11 over Philipe Tomlinson PM
Monque Vallee EC 135 votes over Luciano Di Sante, Pro-LaSalle in Cecil-P.Newman LaSalle
Josee Troilo 29 votes over Dino Masanotti EC borough councillor Cecil-P.Newman
Serge Declos 61 votes over Anju Dhillon EC borough councillor Cecil-P.Newman

[lilTommy]

Someone can correct my French, Bergeron won't run in 2017 and will call a leadership race in two years. If i read that right, he will take his seat in Saint-Jacques. 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201311/06/01-4707716-bergeron-quittera-la-politique-municipale-dici-deux-ans.php

[lilTommy]

Someone can correct my French, Bergeron won't run in 2017 and will call a leadership race in two years. If i read that right, he will take his seat in Saint-Jacques. 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201311/06/01-4707716-bergeron-quittera-la-politique-municipale-dici-deux-ans.php

The leadership will be in the next 12 to 24 months. He will take his seat and is upset at Coderre for asking a recount.  Also, the favorite to replace him are Luc Ferrandez, mayor of the Plateau and François Croteau, mayor of Rosemont. I would very much prefer Croteau, since Ferrandez is a controversial hard-liner which can't win Montréal mayorship.

Croteau sounds like he wont run... but a year from now, might be a different story. The last thing the party needs is another polarizing figure, Fernandez might be great (obviously with his results) for Le Plateau, but if there looking to win the city wide mayoralty, they need to think bigger picture.

[lilTommy]

Montreal Saint-Jacques district recount will be tomorrow. There will not be a recount in Saint-Sulpice, Projet Montreal's lawyer did not submit a document on time (?!). I don't think a recount was asked for Côte-des-Neiges district or the Sud-Ouest mayor.

I've read Russell Copeman was invited to be on executive committee. After the election Réal Ménard said he would not join another party but was open to a city position.

Bergeron wins Saint-Jacques by 36 votes

[lilTommy]

Vision Montreal is official dead
http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/14/vision-montreal-dissolution-louise-harel_n_4964760.html?utm_hp_ref=politique