Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[lilTommy]

So, who you all rooting for?

Oswald, I guess.

Oswald or Ashton... Selinger made a mess things, he made the mistake during the election to promise not raise the PST and then did a poor, poor arse job selling the hike (which actually was a good decision)

It would be interesting to see a Premier from outside of Winnipeg and an old timy-whimy Social Democrat at that.
Not to sure about Oswald, I think she's the not-Ashton not-Selinger choice, My gauge is shes more left (barely) of Selinger but the Wynne style progressive. Ashton seems the more reformist of the bunch.

Frankly the NDP might win again; the PCs are terrible, the Liberals are non-existent (but a wild card)... remember its all about Winnipeg, the NDP will likely lose the popular vote but win the seats (all being in Winnipeg and the 5-6 Norther ridings Including Selkirk and Gimli) AGAIN it depends on who wins and how the election goes...Selinger, I see the NDP lose. Oswald or Ashton, it's a maybe

[lilTommy]

Updated map:

That seems very close.. do we have all the delegate numbers totaled thus far?
Oswald - 7 Ridings
Ashton - 6 Ridings
Sellinger - 1 Riding

[lilTommy]

Delegate totals so far (count down to 2221!), as reported by Alice Funke:

Selinger: 351 (most of which coming from CUPE)
Ashton: 169
Oswald: 126

UFCW is the next big union that will make an endorsement, they have 160 delegates. They're expected to go to Ashton. The Steelworkers are also expected to go to Ashton.

I'm starting to think Ashton will win. Oswald is only winning suburban ridings with few members, and has no union support so far.

Oswald won Minto and St.James, they are not Suburban, well Minto isn't. She should win most/all the southern Winnipeg seats seeing as that is her turf, she represents (Seine River). Most of the core/northern seats have still to select, the bulk of the membership is there in the city.
Ashton seems to be doing very well at winning those over though (OK two of the three). Lets not forget the Northern MB seats have some big membership numbers (I think I read somewhere that Thompson, Ashton's riding, has one of the largest memberships) and those will all likely go with Ashton's way. Any other unions we haven't brought up yet?

Selinger "should"win St.Boniface (his riding) if he doesn't, this is a huge problem for him... he could win with mostly Labour/support but not that of the riding delegates.

[lilTommy]

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/02/17/greg-selinger-manitoba-ndp-leadership-race_n_6697996.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

Looks like Selinger won all 117 delegates from Maples, via HuffPo, the delegate count:

Selinger - 258
Oswald - 208
Ashton - 177

[lilTommy]

From the Long quiet, re-building Nova Scotia NDP... looks like leadership race that will probably happen after the Federal election this year, (Feb 2016 is the date I just read) already has a candidate step up:

MLA Lenore Zann is running
http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1270631-mla-lenore-zann-to-run-for-ndp-leadership

Other names...
- "former MLA Gary Burrill (former Colchester-Musquodoboit MLA) confirmed Sunday he will officially announce his leadership bid in April."
- "caucus colleague and Sackville-Cobequid MLA Dave Wilson, first elected in 2003, is also widely expected to throw his hat in the ring."

[lilTommy]

Midland goes to Selinger:



I've removed union delegates from the total, as many have pointed out that they're not reliably going to go to one candidate or another. If we do include union endorsements, the totals would be:

Selinger: 821
Ashton: 569
Oswald: 439

Selinger in all likelyhood will not win the riding delegates at this rate? his own riding has how many delegates? since that is one of the two left to select and likely has a large number, enough for him to surpass Ashton in delegates?.
Interestingly only one area, Winnipeg NorthWest, was won over by one candidate (Selinger) I had thought "hometown" would provide some areas of block ridings... but the North was mixed with Selinger and Oswald taking one riding eash and Ashton and Oswald splitting South Winnipeg and Selinger taking one.

[lilTommy]

If forum is any indication, Ontario's party support levels are going back to pre-2014 levels.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/255/liberal-voters-moving-to-ndp-parties-tied
34% PC
29% LIB
27% NDP
8% GRN

Elliott is, not surprisingly, the most electable. With her as leader, the PCs get 36%.
Brown as leader gets only 30%.
McNaughton fares the worst as expected, at 29%, tied with the NDP.

Environics Poll seems to show the same thing
http://ontarionewswatch.com/onw-news.html?id=884

33% PC
32% LIB
27% NDP
7% Others

They have regional's:

Toronto
33% NDP
30% LIB
27% PC
10% OTHER

905
37% PC
31% LIB
27% NDP
5% OTHER

North
45% NDP
28% LIB
16% PC
11% Other

Eastern Ontario
40% PC
38% LIB
18% NDP
3% Other

Southwestern Ontario
33% PC
23% LIB
26% NDP
9% Other

"In other interesting data from the poll, Environics found that when it comes to the PCs, men make up a larger share of their supporters than females. In contrast, the NDP counts more women than men among their supporters. And equal numbers of men and women make up the Liberal contingent of decided voters." - this surprises no one

[lilTommy]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

[lilTommy]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

I wish they would, but sadly I think the party has not taken that position... I believe they had a "study" into it which showed not much in terms of savings but I have a hard time believing that. I think you would find the idea of a single school board popular among the membership more then it is being expressed

[lilTommy]

Brown as PC leader has benefited... the NDP

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/05/13/patrick-browns-leadership-win-boosts-ndp-numbers-poll-shows.html

NDP - 36% (+12!)
PC - 33% (-3)
OLP - 24% (-5)
Greens - 5% (-4)

BUT ... "Bozinoff extrapolated this week’s results to project that the Tories would win 49 seats in the 107-seat legislature, the NDP 40, and the Liberals 18." even though the next provincial election I believe will be using the new Federal 121 (likely keeping the North as is)

[lilTommy]

Brown as PC leader has benefited... the NDP

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/05/13/patrick-browns-leadership-win-boosts-ndp-numbers-poll-shows.html

NDP - 36% (+12!)
PC - 33% (-3)
OLP - 24% (-5)
Greens - 5% (-4)

BUT ... "Bozinoff extrapolated this week’s results to project that the Tories would win 49 seats in the 107-seat legislature, the NDP 40, and the Liberals 18." even though the next provincial election I believe will be using the new Federal 121 (likely keeping the North as is)

They're citing Brown being elected as helping the NDP, but it is most definitely the Alberta election influencing the polls. No one knows anything about Brown to have an opinion of him. He's not polarizing enough to boost the NDP 12 points.

Also the budget I'd wager as well, the Privatization plan is not going over well, that has been the bulk of the media coverage and its been mostly all negative.

[lilTommy]

More evidence that this isn't a Patrick Brown effect: PC vote is steady, while Liberal vote is bleeding into the NDP.

Me thinks TheStar is pushing an Anti-Brown agenda over the fact that this is really looking more like the Liberals bleeding to the NDP

[lilTommy]

More evidence that this isn't a Patrick Brown effect: PC vote is steady, while Liberal vote is bleeding into the NDP.

Yes, but Brown is part of the reason why Liberals are bleeding NDP rather than to the PC. I think if Elliott won, then the PC's would look more appealing/less scary than the NDP to moderate Liberals.

It also seems to confirm our notion that Horwath's base is less socially liberal than Wynne's.

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There are a lot of don't knows but that is a non-insignificant number of Dippers who are creationists and anti-sex ed (although it might be just reflexively opposing whatever Wynne does).

Maybe, and it might reflect some of the Northern more rural base, and some of the newer base in SW rural areas but that still scares me as a Dipper... But Wynne being "seen" as socially liberal has pulled some would be NDP support her way (as well as Horwath not really pushing much of a big socially progressive agenda, the party supports the sex-ed reforms, not the lack of consultation), even though the poll has the NDP/Liberals tied in TO and was is 30% a piece.

[lilTommy]

New Newfoundland CRA poll:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ndp-support-swings-upward-as-liberals-fall-slightly-cra-poll-1.3104398?fb_action_ids=10205777397288026&fb_action_types=og.shares

Liberal - 50% (-6)
PC - 27% (-4)
NDP - 22% (+9)

http://cra.ca/support-grows-for-nl-ndp/

[lilTommy]

The Nova Scotia NDP leadership field is all but set.

Running are:

Dave Wilson: MLA for Sackville-Cobequid and Health Minister in the Dexter government.
Lenore Zann: MLA for Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River
Gary Burrill: Ex-MLA for Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

An quirk of this race is the divide within the NDP has been reversed. Typically the NDP has divided on Halifax-Rural lines, with the rural wing being mostly blue collar, union types, and the Halifax wing representing the "cultural left". This time it is reversed, with Wilson representing an Halifax riding and the old left, and Zann representing a small town and running for the new left.

Gary Burrill is a non-entity, so this race is effectively between Wilson and Zann. Right now I'd give Wilson a slight edge.

Just in time for the NSNDP leadership race... new CRA polling has the party increasing support and jumping into second place:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-liberals-see-drop-in-corporate-research-associates-poll-1.3106040

Liberal - 50% (-10)
NDP - 27% (+9)
PC - 19% (-8)