Manitoba election 2016

[lilTommy]

Tied in Winnipeg? Must be a lot of wasted support in the hinterland.

For the PCs, it always is with the exception of the handful of riding's the NDP takes (Brandon East, La Verendrye, Selkirk and Gimli but the last two are debatable being Northern or not)

The election will be made in Winnipeg; that will be the NDPs only saving grace, if they can rebuild their support in the city they might... might be set to win again, but it's not looking "great" The Liberals vote will be the key, if its parked and the bulk returns to the NDP, its another Selinger gov't... if it sticks with the Liberals above 2011, 7% (where they lost about 5% from 2007) it will be interesting to see which riding's a) stick NDP marginally, b) actually flip Liberal and c) the PCs sneak through.

[lilTommy]

Former Finance Minister (and part of the rebel 5) Jennifer Howard won't be seeking re-election this April. Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari  is running in her old riding of Fort Rouge

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/jennifer-howard-re-election-ndp-manitoba-1.3422403

Star candidate Wab Kinew is going to run in Fort Rouge for the NDP, to replace Jennifer Howard.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/02/02/wab-kinew-manitoba-ndp_n_9140234.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics&ir=Canada+Politics

Kinew is the associate vice-president for indigenous relations at the University of Winnipeg and author of the bestselling book "The Reason You Walk." He also worked as a journalist with the CBC and hosted the documentary series "Eighth Fire."

That's one way to dampen the spirits of the Manitoba Liberals.

[lilTommy]

Another Mainstreet Poll:

Decided:
PC: 47% NDP: 25% Liberal: 22% Green 6%

Decided and Leaning:
PC: 43% NDP: 27% Liberal: 24% Green: 7%

Winnipeg
Decided:
PC: 35% NDP: 33% Liberal: 25% Green: 8%

Decided and Leaning:
NDP: 34% PC: 32% Liberal: 26% Green: 8%

Issue based voting:
Support among those who chose economy as their top issue:
NDP: 31% PC: 24%  Liberal: 12%  Green: 1%  Undecided: 31%

Support among those who chose education as their top issue:
NDP: 30%  PC: 31%  Liberal: 9%  Green: 3%  Undecided: 29%

Support among those who chose healthcare as their top issue:
NDP: 16%  PC: 34%  Liberal: 17%  Green: 9%  Undecided: 25%

Support among those who chose taxes as their top issue:
NDP: 4%  PC: 56%  Liberal: 17%  Green: 5%  Undecided: 17%

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/03/13/ndp-gain-support-in-peg

[lilTommy]

Wow, Winnipeg. I guess outside of the north, the NDP will be wiped out in rural Manitoba.

This is true but outside of the north, the NDP only has a handful of seats in rural Manitoba to begin with...this could mean the PCs will waste a lot of votes sweeping rural Manitoba seats most of which they already hold by huge margins.

BTW: The Manitoba PCs have been stuck at a ceiling of 43% support in every single Manitoba election of the last 50 years - the only exception was when they got 48% in 1977 - and that was in the context of a pure two-way contest where the Liberals vote was practically in single digits.

The NDP holds 4 seats outside the North and Winnipeg (Gimli, Selkirk, Brandon East and Dawson Trail)

- Dawson Trail & Gimli, the NDP MLAs are not running; both ridings were won with over 50% for the NDP.
Gimli and Dawson Trail (this is a new-ish riding, the old one was La Verendrye) were both held by the PCs from 88-99 (Oops, Gimli was held by the Liberals from 88-90). I think Dawson Trail will be the first to fall, I think a large chuck of support was for Lemieux.

- Selkirk and Brandon East the incumbent NDP MLAs are running again;

Selkirk - Greg Dewar (name sound familiar?) been the MLA since 1990, current Finance Minister. I do not see the NDP losing this seat. From 69-88 and from 90- present the NDP have held this riding

Brandon East - The NDP have held this since 69, Caldwell since 99 (he's Minister of Municipal Government, Minister responsible for relations with the City of Winnipeg, and Minister responsible for alternative energy).

I think that as the Campaign starts, the Liberals lack of resources and riding-on-the-coattails-of-Trudeau will start to show and drift; I'd say they drop 5-10% 3-4 seats only at most they can win. The Leader is not strong as was pointed out (i'll save judgement till the campaign starts, she may perform well), plus a star candidate for the NDP running against her means even more resources that could have gone to other ridings in Winnipeg won't.
I'm thinking 2016 will be more like 1995 (PCs 42.87% NDP 32.81%  LIB 23.72%)

[lilTommy]

The NDP also currently holds Dauphin and Interlake - and its debatable if those would be considered "northern"...

I didn't. So I just looked; Wiki (OK grain of salt there) only considers:
Flin Flon, Kewatinook, Swan River, The Pas and Thompson As "Northern"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manitoba_general_election,_2016

BUT, Elections Manitoba has only 4 seats as "Northern" in the Maps section:
Flin Flon, Kewatinook, The Pas and Thompson
http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Resources/North

... its all debatable i guess ; adding Dauphin and Interlake into the South sure does make it look a little better for the NDP, two more seats!

[lilTommy]

PC have a chance to sweep Rural Manitoba, protected to win 23 out of 26 seats, with a range of 23-26 seats.

It might seem that way but there are 4 seats in northern manitoba that are heavily First Nation that will never go Conservative...its within the realm of possibility that if the NDP was really crushed those seats could co Liberal - but PC never

Yup, even the worst election for the NDP in recent years, 1988 where the NDP won only 12 seats, they won all the "Northern" seats save Swan River, Oddly enough the PCs held Swan River from 1932-1986.
I wrote above, I'd say there are probably two seats the NDP wont lose that are "Rural/Southern" Selkirk and Brandon East, BE having been held by the NDP since 69 and based on history, the NDP sunk to 23% province wide and still held BE.

When we indicate rural Manitoba, we have to distinguish between the North and South, very very different regions. Just like in Ontario, rural Northern Ontario is not at all like Rural Southern Ontario.

[lilTommy]

Insight: 49/26/17.

The Liberal Support has begun to slip; "should" be good new for the NDP, but its looking like the PCs are getting a boost as well.
http://insightmanitoba.ca/mb-polling-results.html

Winnipeg:
PC - 38%
NDP - 24%
LIB - 16%

[lilTommy]

The Liberals aren't going to win much if all of their strength is in rural Manitoba where the PCs will win most seats.

Looks like a 6th Liberal candidate has dropped out? I've lost count
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-election-kurt-berger-resignation-1.3519868

[lilTommy]

Wow. This is definitely good news.

I do wonder if Selinger will lose his seat Broten-style. I actually hope so, because I loathe him. I want the NDP to do well, but I want Selinger gone. How well do you think the NDP would be doing if Selinger had lost the leadership spill last year? Probably not leading, but maybe at ~30%.

If I lived in St. Boniface, I'd be voting Green TBH.

Selinger dug his own grave... It sucks because the NDP should never had indicated they would not raise taxes last election. It was a bad policy move, good politics but people rightfully see this as a broken promise/at worst a lie. I support the PST increase because that's proven to be good policy when it came to funding massive infrastructure in the province, but guy didn't sell the idea at all.
The NDP is running on some good policies, so I'd still vote NDP... esp over the other two.

Like Pallister is pulling a Ford "...Brian Pallister said he would have to check his schedule when he was asked if he would follow the lead of NDP Premier Greg Selinger. Selinger was the first Manitoba premier to participate in Pride celebrations two years ago."
Given this country has two gay premiers, for a party leader to say he's maybe OK with this?

[lilTommy]

Another Poll


http://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/pcs-hold-commanding-lead-in-manitoba-election-poll-1.2850218

Manitoba
PC 46
NDP 28
LIB 20
GREEN 6


Wpg
PC 38
NDP 34
LIB 21
Other 7


Rural

PC 59
NDP 18
LIB 19
Other 4

Is this an outlier for Winnipeg? I have yet to see the NDP above 30% in the city, and 34%! ... the PCs cannot let the NDP "win" in Winnipeg if they hope to have any hope at winning the election. This looks to be more old-NDP voters who went to the PCs coming back to the PCs, since the Liberal vote looks to be steady (up from some other polls which peg them at about 16%)
Looking back at past polling, the NDP have been on a very steady upswing in Winnipeg... this election, if trends continue could be closer then many people think. In fact the PCs could win the popular vote and lose the seat count.

[lilTommy]

There was a Mainstreet poll two weeks ago that had the NDP and PCs tied in Winnipeg - but its not enough for the NDP just to tie in Winnipeg since the PCs will likely win all but 3 or 4 seats in rural Manitoba.

Oh agreed; I was trying to find the 2011 results for Winnipeg, but the NDP needs to win over 50% in the city to hold the ridings they would need to win ( think that was about what they pulled in Winnipeg in 2011).
29 seats is a win, the NDP can lose 8. The North is not going anywhere really, so that's 7-8 the NDP keeps. The NDP is likely to lose 2 of the 4 rural/south (posted prior Brandon West and Selkirk likely to stay NDP)
IF the NDP keeps increasing their support in the city, above 40%, the seats the PCs can win (with a strong-ish Liberals vote) become very few... Southdale, Kirkfield Park, St.Norbert, Seine River are the most likely to go PC right now... after that?
Tyndall Park to the LIBs, Fort Rouge is still way too close, LIB/NDP toss. - The NDP needs to keep both, and the PCs need to win over Reiver Heights somehow... bit of a rant

[lilTommy]

Do you have a riding-by-riding prediction up yet?

I think St. James and Burrows will be close, but I'd give them to the NDP (both cabinet ministers, Burrows has more NDP strength then St. James), Transcona too, maybe, but the incumbent is not running again. BUT the NDP made a huge deal about Palliser and his anti-gay past (and current position) the NDP candidate here is the Winnipeg Pride chair... might get a personal bump? 
I also think Swan River, Selkirk and Brandon West will stay NDP.

[lilTommy]

Also, I assume you meant Brandon East? According to Wikipedia, there have been two polls conducted there over the winter showing the Tories ahead thanks to a Liberal/NDP vote split.

Yes, sorry Brandon East.
Back in the winter maybe, but the NDP is polling about 5-6% higher, Liberals lower then they were in the winter.
I'm going with the past historical elections more then polling for Brandon East. I'm just having a hard time seeing where the Liberal vote will go if it breaks, its been slipping since their winter high of 36%, now about 17%. But the PCs look to be benefiting more. Have to go back to 77 to see the PCs at 48-49%

[lilTommy]

I'm going to be the NDP optimist...

PC - 38
NDP - 16
LIB - 3 (Tyndall Park, The Maples, River Heights)

The NDP need to lose, more specifically Sellinger needs to lose. He put his interests a head of the party and should never have run again. Had the NDP had a new leader things might be different, but every party needs time to rejuvenate no matter how much the other guy sucks. 

[lilTommy]

I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
 

[lilTommy]

I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
 

1.Although I predicted the NDP winning just six seats, I was closest to the actual retail value without going over.

2.In regards to Eric Robinson, there were some allegations of improprieties regarding his activities in the cabinet. I don't know if that made had an impact though.  It could just be with him and Steve Ashton that people in those ridings wanted new MLAs.

I think King of Kensington was closer no? Back on page 5 he had:
"PCs  43
NDP  12
Liberals  2"
But, s'all good, I think in general the NDP performed about expected vote wise (quarter of the voting population) and slightly better then expected seat count, most people here had them about 10-12 range.

I can see that, Both Robinson and Aston had been around since the 90's, and Lathlin and Lindsey are new blood.

The chatter i'm hearing from New Democrats, after the fact, is Sellinger cost us seats and had he stepped down things would have gone better. So even though the NDP lost, I think many see this as a good thing.

Looks like the NDP got over 50% in only two riding's (Point Douglas and Minto)

[lilTommy]

I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
  

1.Although I predicted the NDP winning just six seats, I was closest to the actual retail value without going over.

2.In regards to Eric Robinson, there were some allegations of improprieties regarding his activities in the cabinet. I don't know if that made had an impact though.  It could just be with him and Steve Ashton that people in those ridings wanted new MLAs.

I think King of Kensington was closer no? Back on page 5 he had:
"PCs  43
NDP  12
Liberals  2"
But, s'all good, I think in general the NDP performed about expected vote wise (quarter of the voting population) and slightly better then expected seat count, most people here had them about 10-12 range.

I can see that, Both Robinson and Aston had been around since the 90's, and Lathlin and Lindsey are new blood.

The chatter i'm hearing from New Democrats, after the fact, is Sellinger cost us seats and had he stepped down things would have gone better. So even though the NDP lost, I think many see this as a good thing.

Looks like the NDP got over 50% in only two riding's (Point Douglas and Minto)

I'm sure there were several who got closer without going over than I did, but I was referring to just you and me

Also
1.Steve Ashton had been the MLA for that area since 1981.

2.As I wrote previously, the NDP was back up to around 30% in the polls and only around 10-15% behind the P.Cs when the Gang of Five ganged up on Selinger.  Unlike Brian Pallister, I'm not against mutinying on a leader in general, but when the principle of the rebellion is stated as "we don't think we can win the next election with that leader" those aren't exactly high ideals and the Gang of five gang up and ultimate defeat I think clearly hurt the NDP.

As I wrote, had it not been for this mutiny, my guess is the NDP would have wound up with 30-35% of the vote and around 20 seats.

3.These are the vote percentages of the NDP MLA-elects.

1.Kevin Chief, Point Douglas, 58.90%
2.Andrew Swan, Minto, 51.20%
3.Jim Maloway, Elmwood, 46.32%
4.Matt Wiebe, Concordia, 45.16%
5.Amanda Lathlin, The Pas, 43.45%
6.Greg Selinger, St. Boniface, 42.43%
7.Rob Altemeyer, Wolseley, 41.43%
8.Flor Marcelino, Logan, 39.92%
9.Ted Marcelino, Tyndall Park, 39.39%
10.James Allum, Fort Garry-Riverview, 37.87%
11.Wab Kinew, Fort Rouge, 37.68%
12.Nahanni Fontaine, St Johns, 37.03%
13.Mohinder Saran, The Maples, 36.29%
14.Tom Lindsey, Flin Flon, 32.49% (the NDP incumbent who lost renomination ran as an independent)

AH, Yup you won. I said I was being an optimist with 16 seats

Agreed, usually those internal battles are kept behind doors, especially for a party that was in power for so long... but that was probably part of the problem. I also contend that had Sellinger not run again, and the NDP nominated another leader, Oswald probably, The party would have fared better I think.

The NDP managed to save a few seats by clawing their way back to 30+ in Winnipeg. With Selling resigning as leader how soon do we think a By-election would be called?