Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[lilTommy]

Here's Le Droit and Radio-Canada on Ottawa-Vanier.

It's almost as if there are no other parties running!

The NDP should make a play at the provincial seat. Not saying they can win, but considering how unpopular the OLP is.. one caveat is that no one cares about provincial politics in Ottawa, so the Liberals are probably going to be more popular due to the lack of outrage due to apathy.

Looks like the ONDP was the first to nominate a candidate, Claude Bisson former RCMP officer... and if it is not clear, he is the brother of Gilles Bisson NDP MPP for Timmins-James Bay

[lilTommy]

Full poll: 43/27/25, Wynne approval at 15%, Brown 51%, Horwath 59%. Have fun Grits!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/wynne-liberals-headed-disaster/

Regionally:
North - PC 41%, NDP 32%, OLP 24%
East - PC 48%, OLP 28%, NDP 16%
SW - PC 45%, NDP 35% OLP 15%
SC - PC 48% OLP 24% NDP 21%
GTA - PC 47% NDP 27% OLP 23%
416 - OLP 35% PC 31% NDP 27%

[lilTommy]

oh wow, those GTA numbers...

No kidding; just for comparison sake; the 2014 election 905 region vote was:

OLP 40.7% (-17 vs poll), PC 31.7%(+16), NDP 21.7%(+6)

[lilTommy]

Full poll: 43/27/25, Wynne approval at 15%, Brown 51%, Horwath 59%. Have fun Grits!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/wynne-liberals-headed-disaster/

Regionally:
North - PC 41%, NDP 32%, OLP 24%
East - PC 48%, OLP 28%, NDP 16%
SW - PC 45%, NDP 35% OLP 15%
SC - PC 48% OLP 24% NDP 21%
GTA - PC 47% NDP 27% OLP 23%
416 - OLP 35% PC 31% NDP 27%

The 416 looking like an even 3 way race.  Much of that PC 31% is likely concentrated in Etobicoke and North York.

Agreed, with much of the NDP vote concentrated in the old city of Toronto. If the Liberal vote sticks to the stereotype "a inch deep and a mile wide" It wouldn't take much for the NDP or PCs to win seats; a similar result to 2011 federal election.

[lilTommy]

Saskatoon Meewasin MLA Roger Parent (SP) has died due to cancer. By-election will of course be next year, but putting this here anyways.

The riding is usually an NDP seat, but has gone for the Sask Party since 2011 due to Brad Wall being more popular than Jesus.

That's changing, Wall and the SP are facing some really rough time due to their major budget problems, some sale scandals and overall just going to opposite of the feds.
The last poll (from August by Mainstreet) in Saskatoon showed a SP 47% NDP 41% split.

[lilTommy]

FINALLY Ryan Meili is going to run for Office. Seeking the NDP nomination in the upcoming Saskatoon Meewasin by-election. Says he has the support of prior Candidate Nicole White who lost to Parent by just over 500 votes... He says hes not considering a run, but this is the first step to getting the elected political experience he's missing for a leadership run.

http://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/ryan-meili-to-seek-ndp-nomination-in-saskatoon-meewasin