Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[lilTommy]

Weird how we haven't gotten a single Saskatoon Fairview poll, when we got 2 Saskatoon Meewasin by-election polls.

Ya, no kidding eh. I think because in Meewasin, you had a very high profile NDP candidate in Meili running, might have been a factor in the amount of polling. Fairview was much closer then Meewasin in 2016; a 182 vote (48% vs 45%) difference vs 523 (50% vs 42%)... it could be seen as already in the NDP bag, which is not the best for anyone.

[lilTommy]

Some rural seats like Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers, which have large reserve populations, are ripe for picking, and they'll be the ones deciding who forms government in 2020.

I don't understand that argument. Seats with a high native population seem less swingable than more white seats to me. It's like arguing that Mississippi could be a Democratic pickup. Sure the NDP have a high floor, but the non-reserve polls are voting 70-80% Saskatchewan Party.

Really Good Night for the NDP, I thought maybe mid-50's; 55% or so, but 60%! that's closer to the 95' vote in the old riding (the NDP won 64% then)
IF there is a similar swing province-wide, 16% or so, which the last provincewide poll showed is within the realm of possibilities. Those previous 60-70% SP polls are now more like 40-50%, which would be outweighed by an even stronger (likely) vote in already NDP held polls. So Sask Rivers, Meadow Lake, Batoche, like what was previously mentioned 2003 type ridings. Puts Saskatoon suburban ridings like Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods definitely in the NDP column, but also Northwest and Silverspring-Sutherland become much more winnable.

Kindersley... still a huge long shot. Even if we see another 16% swing, AND all the 17% who voted for the Indie vote for the NDP, if my rough math is right, that is still SP 51% NDP 40%.  Not sure what voter turn out was, but a huge number of non-voters would have to come out to vote NDP and we'd have to have a bigger swing to the NDP for them to win. Its not impossible, but it's unlikely.
Momentum is with the NDP, they'd be foolish not to capitalize and try and attract a "star" (as best they can) for Kindersley. If there is huge discontent/backlash in Rural Sask maybe we could see this flip... stranger things have happened.

[lilTommy]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

[lilTommy]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

Yes, uniform swing.

Interestingly, the lowest hanging fruit rural riding for the NDP is Batoche, which hasn't gone NDP since 1995. It appears to have a high FN population, and less resource dependent as ridings in the NW like Meadow Lake which saw a huge swing to the SP in 2016.

Another interesting one, going by the colour variants, is Last Mountain-Touchwood, north of Regina. Looks surprisingly competitive.

[lilTommy]

Denis Lemieux from Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is resigning so sometime in the new year a by-election here.  As long as the Liberals maintain their polling numbers in Quebec, suspect they will hold this, but Quebec is known to switch on the dime so if poll numbers change dramatically then you could get an upset.

Wonder if Dany Morin, NDP MP from 2011-2015 would be up for this run?

[lilTommy]

Wow. Not good news for the NDP. But I'm glad the Liberals lost the seat. I really hated how they dealt with the electoral reform plebiscite.

Any particular reason for this? for the last few, two elections or so, the NDP and Greens have been fighting each other for third, and the Greens have been winning the fight now, any local PEI reasons? This isn't the case in NS, and might be the case in NB, but I think we need to see what happens after the next election there. But looks like in PEI the anti-Liberal progressive vote is going Green over NDP?