Does Nelson-D defeat Mack-R by a wider margin that he defeated Katherine Harris-R in 2006.
Almost impossible. Katherine Harris pretty much hit the floor for Republicans in Florida. She did everything wrong, was endorsed by nobody, was absolutely reviled by Democrats and most independents, couldn't even win 50% in a primary against nobodies, and most importantly was facing a Democratic incumbent in 2006. Connie Mack will have Republican support and money, is already polling around where she lost at with the Republicans still divided, is not really disliked and even still gets some favorability from his family name, and Bill Nelson has lost a bit of the shine he had before. I don't really think Mack will win but I don't doubt he'll get into the 40's, probably around the 45 area assuming the Democrats win the presidency.
2000 is probably a better baseline to look at then 2006 for Nelson.
