Let the great boundary rejig commence

[afleitch]

https://consultation.scottishboundaries.gov.uk/

Interactive whizzbang mapping.

[afleitch]

I'm doing my notionals differently (I won't be doing them all until the seats are finalised)

What I've done is used the patterns of party vote (rather than raw numbers) based on the 2007 local election results and worked out what % of the party vote in each seat was cast in each ward or part ward.

So for example, I added up the Labour vote in the 2007 locals in the wards/part wards together that make up the Dumfries and Galloway Westminster constituency. This is of course lower in locals than at a GE, however you can say for example that in Ward 1 (good ward for Labour takin in Stranraer) 13.5% of the total Labour vote in the whole seat was cast there (if that makes sense) For split wards I've used the Commissions percentages.

I worked out that while 42% of the Dumfries and Galloway seat has been moved to Dumfries, that equates to 57.9% of the Labour vote. For the Conservatives it's 38.1%

So the remaining vote in the Galloway rump would be some 10,083 Labour votes and 10,214 Conservative votes.

For the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock seat, 35% of the Labour vote is moved into Galloway and Carrick and 65.4% of the Conservative vote is moved in so that's 7,569 Labour votes and 7,668 Conservative votes.

So my notionals have Galloway 17,652 for Labour, 17,882 for the Conservatives. Conservative majority of 230

All maths of course but there you are

[afleitch]

The site also contains all stages of the process including alternate but dismissed arrangements for some seats.

They had four initial Edinburgh maps - the one they eventually used, one with a more genuinely easterly Edinburgh East that I like a tad better at first glance, one that appears just plain bizarre, and one that crosses the boundary by dumping Portobello into East Lothian (which in turn gives up a bit of territory to Midlothian & Tweeddale).

Their Appendix B proposal is quite sensible and I know my side might push for that. In their Edinburgh South seat, I would have salivated at Tory prospects as it includes Meadows/Morningside in full with Sighthill/Gorgie kicked out. The rest of the city is divided sensibly. The current one isn't great.

Dundee is still the big concern. There was a rejected proposal that linked West with Gowrie as agreed but one that linked East with 'Letham' taking in the footprint of the current Dundee seats and Arbroath. They then had an Angus North and Kincardine seat. Why they didn't go for that I have no idea.

EDIT: Just noticed one that united Dundee except two wards.

[afleitch]

The site also contains all stages of the process including alternate but dismissed arrangements for some seats.

They had four initial Edinburgh maps - the one they eventually used, one with a more genuinely easterly Edinburgh East that I like a tad better at first glance, one that appears just plain bizarre, and one that crosses the boundary by dumping Portobello into East Lothian (which in turn gives up a bit of territory to Midlothian & Tweeddale).

Their Appendix B proposal is quite sensible and I know my side might push for that. In their Edinburgh South seat, I would have salivated at Tory prospects as it includes Meadows/Morningside in full with Sighthill/Gorgie kicked out. The rest of the city is divided sensibly. The current one isn't great.

Dundee is still the big concern. There was a rejected proposal that linked West with Gowrie as agreed but one that linked East with 'Letham' taking in the footprint of the current Dundee seats and Arbroath. They then had an Angus North and Kincardine seat. Why they didn't go for that I have no idea.

EDIT: Just noticed one that united Dundee except two wards.

I suppose the only reason they didn't do something like that is they didn't see any parts of the city to "naturally" crop out.

The split of Dunfermline looks like it's probably just about avoidable if Rosyth & Cowdenbeath (or whatever else it would be called once it can't be Dunfermline East anymore) curves around the city a bit. Obviously some of the town splits in Lanarkshire are also unfortunate even though the general setup is sensible.

Generally speaking you can lop off (much to the delight of residents I'm sure), Broughty Ferry to the east and Fintryside (everything north of the Fintry River). Essentially the North East Ward and Ferry Ward of the city. The rest can be constituted to form a 'South Angus' seat.

The Dunfermline split could be avoided as you say. I don't like the Fife set-up. It would have made sense to link Fife with Perthshire to give 5 seats and have a 5 seat arrangement for Dundee City, Angus and Aberdeenshire.

Lanarkshire works, in the sense that it doesn't but there's not really much of an option. I'm shocked that Hamilton isn't split which seemed to be the norm for the past 30 years of reviews.

[afleitch]

Scottish notionals based on Andrew Wells figures.

[afleitch]

Ah, we appear to have a slight difference of opinion here. Wells is now saying Galloway is a marginal Con seat and I have as a Lab majority of 8,000. That's more than just statistical difference to which I wonder has one of us made a mistake and if so how?

Well's methodology is more suited.

For example if 25% of the electorate in Seat X moves to Seat Y, it should not be assumed that 25% of the Labour vote, Tory vote, Lib Dem vote etc moves with it because the 25% of the seat that moves may be a Labour solid town, or a rural Tory area

I outlined how I do notionals here

I'm doing my notionals differently (I won't be doing them all until the seats are finalised)

What I've done is used the patterns of party vote (rather than raw numbers) based on the 2007 local election results and worked out what % of the party vote in each seat was cast in each ward or part ward.

So for example, I added up the Labour vote in the 2007 locals in the wards/part wards together that make up the Dumfries and Galloway Westminster constituency. This is of course lower in locals than at a GE, however you can say for example that in Ward 1 (good ward for Labour takin in Stranraer) 13.5% of the total Labour vote in the whole seat was cast there (if that makes sense) For split wards I've used the Commissions percentages.

I worked out that while 42% of the Dumfries and Galloway seat has been moved to Dumfries, that equates to 57.9% of the Labour vote. For the Conservatives it's 38.1%

So the remaining vote in the Galloway rump would be some 10,083 Labour votes and 10,214 Conservative votes.

For the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock seat, 35% of the Labour vote is moved into Galloway and Carrick and 65.4% of the Conservative vote is moved in so that's 7,569 Labour votes and 7,668 Conservative votes.

So my notionals have Galloway 17,652 for Labour, 17,882 for the Conservatives. Conservative majority of 230

All maths of course but there you are

I got a smaller notional Tory majority than Wells as I was doing a rough calculation. To get it more exact you can look at 2007 polling district data just to see broadly where the party vote rests.

For example if you look at the 2007 local results for the wards that make up Galloway and Carrick we would have a Tory lead of about 6,500 over Labour (15900 v 9400). The Tories would have won the seat based on 2007 Holyrood and even 2011 Holyrood results comfortably. Westminster is of course a different matter.

Galloway has lost Dumfries and it's surrounding areas; these are the strongest Labour areas in Dumfries and Galloway Council and they are now in the new Dumfries seat. You are left with the rump of Galloway; remember the Tories won Galloway in 2001 prior to the boundary changes. The new seat takes in Maybole, Girvan, Carrick which are a mixed bag for both Labour and the Tories. However it takes in the best parts of Ayr for the Tories too.

The moment I saw it I had a gut feeling we notionally held it.

[afleitch]

More to the point, Russell Brown will run in whichever constituency Dumfries is in. He's one of those people who can produce large personal votes as if by magic, and a lot of Labour votes in Galloway in 2010 will be those.

Same with Elaine Murray; must be something in the water...

What's curious is that love him or loathe him (and Tories are evenly split on that), David Mundell also has a large personal vote; his is now distributed into 3 seats and while he is likely to be parachuted into Galloway and Carrick, he could stand in Dumfriesshire and give it a fair go. John Lamont will try his hand again in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.

[afleitch]

Looking at them for the first time they are actually not that bad. Wales was always going to face this sort of cull anyway. I think they missed a trick by not crossing the Glamorgan/Powys boundary but that would have a knock on effect in the north.

You'll never grow to love it; I feel more attached to the continuity of the Scottish Parliament seats and I think when it comes to the Welsh Assembly you will feel the same.

[afleitch]

That's being polite!

Best thing to do to get the feel of everything are the transcripts.

The General Records Office of Scotland also released their electorate data for December 2011. Scotland's electorate is now over 4 million.

Glasgow's electorate is up 40,100 since 2009 and Edinburgh's up just 4,900 (it's been stagnant for a while)

The quota for Scottish Parliamentary seats is now 55,969

However the number registered to vote in UK elections is just 3.94 million

[afleitch]

My summary after reading a few of the counter proposals

Dear Commission

I am absolutely appalled at your lack of local knowledge when grouping together the village of Nonentity with parts of Somecity. This disgrace will affect the 72 villagers who live in Nonentity who have nothing to do with Somecity and haven't since 1066. I myself work in Somecity, shop in Somecity and my kids go to school in Somecity. While the pen pushers at the Commission may think it sensible to include Nonentity with Somecity because of the direct rail and road links, how can you expect an MP to cover so large an area in 2012? He might not have a car, e-mail or legs.

Instead you can link Nonentity with the rest of Someshire via a road that I would never drive down and I'm not sure what it's called but it's been there for a while and used to connect Nonentity with a rural district that it was part of until 1974. Now I know that this will give Somecounty South an electorate of 90,000 but as you can tell I don't really care for numbers and rules. Should the Commission find this unacceptable then bits of Somecity can be lopped off and added elsewhere buggering up the rest of your proposals.

Sincerely

A. N. Arse

[afleitch]

Dundee was sorted out in a sensible way as was Fife. Disappointed in the 'jigsaw piece' solution to East Dunbartonshire taking the middle out of the Bearsden-Milngavie area.

[afleitch]

Anthony Wells thinks at first glance these boundaries would have given the Conservatives a majority.

[afleitch]

England. Based on Anthony Wells notionals.

[afleitch]

Cardiff N & SW Gwent (for which read "Cardiff N, Newport W & Risca") though... and I notice it or something similar was actually proposed by Labour and the Tories... it reminds me of the Middlesbrough S & Cleveland E of yore. 

It's the best of a bad situation for the Tories in Cardiff. Back of a napkin calculations suggest it probably has a majority of about 1,700 for Labour over the Tories. It's the inclusion of Risca that gives which get's Labour over the top. There's no other satisfactory arragement due to rather large wards in the centre of Cardiff.

[afleitch]

Sigh. I still think that the Commons could easily have been culled without changing the current rules; just reducing the Commons to 550 or 600 seats without crossing county boundaries and the Tories generally ensuring at reviews stage that we have more donuts than cakes with respect to urban/suburban splits. I also don't see why reviews can't take place between parliaments, there's computers to help with this sort of thing.

[afleitch]

To be fair anyway you cut the cake will result in a disproportionate bias towards Labour. One of the main problems is that the electoral geography of Britain has remained generally unaltered since the war. The administrative boundaries have however. The Mets are a major problem, you have areas of Tory support on the fringes but backed up against the boundaries with the county councils which are never crossed. Worse still, within the Mets you have continuing traditions which are never broken. Look at the proposed Otley constituency. That would never be suggested under the current method of doing things, yet it makes a fair degree of sense.