I wonder whether the Scottish Tories may take a smaller hit next year than Tories elsewhere; they've got less to loose, after all.
I can't see them loosing any of the 5 notional seats they hold (not even Carlaw can chuck away a stonking notional majority in Eastwood...I hope) due to both the individual MSP's involved and the nature of the 'second party' in each of these seats. Should the Lib Dems take a hit the Tories could advance at their expense in one or two seats (Aberdeenshire West for example)
It all depends on the campaign, which depends on the media. Unfortunately every Scottish election since 1999 has been met with a 'Tories at 9% in poll = wipeout' narrative. Sometimes we believe it too. But there has to be a reality check. We are a third party with a Lowland base. Perthshire, Aberdeenshire etc are lost because of tactical voting on all sides; to keep the Tories out in some places, and by Tory voters trying to keep Labour out in others (see Stirling)
The biggest mistake (expressed privately at least) is not trying to form a coalition or pact with the SNP in 2007. This has been done during the budget etc with some good concessions but really should have been more formalised. I don't think it's too late either because the next election is not going to be the Labour 'shoo-in' that some are presuming. The Tories biggest asset (cough) is Annabel Goldie and she has to be entrenched as leader of the national party. The old duffers blocking the winnable regional lists have to be dropped letting people like Davina Rankin and Ruth Davidson through. It's not a difficult thing to do either; keep the big names on board to win the constituencies and let party preference and blind loyalty voting allow rising stars through the regional seats.
