UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[afleitch]

An interesting graph from ncpolitics (which is a bit of a stat wank site but all good fun) on 'swingback.' While there are big heavy caveats it does suggest that if the swingback to the government is anything like the average, then the Tories could repeat their 7point lead over Labour.

[afleitch]

I'm not saying the tories won't win (I'm inclined to think they will) but that graph seems to be the sort of thing, like, for instance, no president being re elected with X% unemployment, that's a rule until it isn't.

Oh yes, but every government since 1983 (even Major in '97) has seen a 'swingback' over the 6 months prior to an election. If this one doesn't it naturally breaks that rule. But it's a very good thing for the Conservatives to be neck and neck with their challengers at this point in the campaign.

[afleitch]

When would Gordon ever have been a "winnable target for Ed Miliband"?

Because the Lib Dems collapsed and Malcolm Bruce is retiring. Labour were second in the seat in 2005 and were just a bit behind the SNP in 2010.

Sorry, Afleitch, but that's anti-Labour hackery and you know it.

It's not hackery to point out that Labour could have targeted Gordon! It only needs an 8% swing which isn't much more than they would need to take Cambridge from the Lib Dems. I'm not saying it was number 1 on their target list, but it's not entirely an un-winnable seat for them demographically speaking.

They never ever won Gordon or any past riding covering the area, nor they ever won it in Scottish Parliament. And it's likely Salmond will win that riding in a landslide anyways, no matter who Labour ran.

But Salmond running only happened after the referendum as did the SNP surge. Labour in a more natural climate where they were trying to form a government could have targeted Gordon, even with Labour's vote maxed out in Scotland. While Salmond's personal vote here will more than likely replace Bruce's, had Salmond not stood and had the SNP not been in the position they are currently in, Labour could have challenged in this seat. I have the knowledge of the local political climate to know that to have been the case. Now it is off the table, as naturally it should be, because Salmond is standing there.

[afleitch]

The guy that blogged it suggested that it would be between a 2 and 8 point Conservative lead; midpoint would be 5.

[afleitch]

Why are 2001 and 2005 omitted from that graph?

Mark Pack is a LibDem. Apparently LibDems diversified and now do misleading line charts, instead of sticking only to misleading bar charts.

Because it's to do with Conservative governments and Labour was in power then. Labour's 2010 'swingback' is there for reference in red. You're all getting a wee bit defensive over some analysis! No one is saying that this is definitely going to happen.

[afleitch]

LOL

Standing for FUKP. Love it.

[afleitch]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914839/Two-Eds-hid-truth-global-crash-Miliband-Balls-knew-UK-economy-fall-cliff-year-happened-kept-secret.html

Probably best for him to both 'own' it but not be so dismissive over what it represents.

[afleitch]

Crazy Poll week continued with YouGov

CON - 32
LAB - 30
UKIP - 15
GRN - 10
LIB - 8

[afleitch]

SNP at 52% in Scotland with Ipsos Mori

[afleitch]

I know little about UK politics, but is there a possible for a Conservative-UKIP coalition?

Well for one thing, UKIP will probably only win 2 seats. 3 would be like a huge feat. Even then, that's not going to be the difference between a minority and a majority. So it's a moot point.

Nothing can be written off for UKIP. They were underestimated in the 2013 locals, last year's local and Europeans, so I'd assume this years GE too.

Actually if anything, UKIP are over-estimated in the polls. They had a worse set of local elections in 2014 than they did in 2013, down 5% to 17% in the estimated national vote share. In the European elections held on the same day, they were overestimated by a range of 1-6 points in national polling at the time (Labour were also slightly overestimated and the Tories underestimated) YouGov called that one 'correct'; they had had UKIP sitting lower in the polls in the final two weeks than other pollsters, but incorrectly had them just behind Labour until their last poll.

[afleitch]

A major problem also is that Labour's been banging on about the 'cost of living crisis' for the past two years and that wages do seem to be picking up at just about the worst possible moment for that tortuous case to cut any wood,

On the contrary, it will take years (and not one or two at that) for living standards to recover to where were before the financial crisis hit, and people are aware of this instinctively (i.e. when people talk of there being 'no recovery' - as they still often do - this is what they mean). It's a good line of attack (and happens to be morally right, though that's by the by), but the question is whether Labour can deliver it effectively during the campaign.

I'm clearly in no position to estimate the mood on the ground (who is, though?), but as far as I can see the line doesn't play too well with the mainstream media. The narrative at this point seems to be one of economic growth and dipping unemployment figures. There are worse circumstances for an incumbent government to be fighting an election campaign under.

(I'm not disagreeing with you as to the reality of the matter, but I'm feeling slightly despondent of the quality of Labour's communication at the moment. Not saying it'll cost them the election, as what's actually being said is hardly the most important thing at this point.)

Given that Labour were at worse nurse to or at least chaperone to the economic crisis it probably won't give them much of a boost. In opinion polls on who to blame for the current economic problems, Labour still score highly.

[afleitch]

Well Cameron played a blinder on the debates; he ‘initiates’ a Green surge (surges often happen just because the media start talking about it) and now it looks like we’ll get the Greens and the SNP and Plaid. That creates a potential ‘stairheed rammy’ involving 7 parties in the debates. It gives the SNP exposure in Scotland during a GE (which they often lack) which will hopefully sustain momentum and gives Plaid national legitimacy and dilutes UKIP’s ‘none of the above’ status.

When there’s so many people in the mix debate wise, no one knows what the expectations are. It makes a ‘one on one’ with Miliband easier. Miliband starts from a low expectation. People expect him to look odd, stare, wet his lips, fidget and regurgitate the unfortunate ‘I genewawy thay to youw’ inflections. He just has to come across half decent and he wins by default. In a 7 header to start off with, it gives Cameron a better opportunity to scout him.

To pick up on the ‘cost of living’ stuff from earlier, including oil prices, inflation and potential Budget giveaways; there’s something (I say this as someone who isn’t going to vote for them), that makes me think there’s a ‘perfect storm’ brewing for what could potentially be a quite comfortable Conservative victory in May.

[afleitch]

The Scottish Labour Party have not provided official membership figures since 2008 when it stood at 17,000. I heard, from a trustworthy source tonight it might now be in the 5000-7000 range which if true, it would have less members than the Greens, Tories (who still have a lot of residual old duffers) and the SNP which has now surpassed 100,000 members. Important stuff in advance of any ground game.

[afleitch]

SNP lead shrinking in Scotland in the two latest polls:

http://may2015.com/featured/is-labour-starting-to-turn-the-tide-in-scotland/

Not based on those polls, no. The Panelbase poll that saw a huge drop in SNP support asked the Voting Intention question third. The first question was about how oil prices affected your view on independence. You really shouldn't do that. It's how they got interesting polls results during the referendum campaign. So the fact they got a result that is out of line with other polls isn't surprising. Survation saw SNP down two and SNP up two. Mori saw Labour up 1 and the SNP steady, though in fact the figure reported as 52% for the SNP was infact 52.5% and would usually be rounded up. So technically both parties were up one on that poll.

At the moment, it would be not be accurate to say that the SNP lead is falling. It's been pretty much the same as it has been since December.

[afleitch]

Talking of the SNP...

...what? I'd expect this from Ulster, sure, but Scotland?!

Well it's John Mason being a d-ck as usual.

[afleitch]

are schoolchildren in Scotland not aware of this through normal RE lessons at school?

If you read the opening statement in Mason's proposal, which is a response to a Parliament notion on chaplains (and why he links that to Creationism, f-ck knows) what the issue was, was a few schools in East Kilbride essentially having happy-clappy American 'chaplains' in their schools who handed out typical American crap about creationism, gays and non-believers. The Parliament notion was to tighten up chaplaincy posts at schools and while allowing them to be of a 'Christian character', would require more vetting in case they were evangelising nuts.

[afleitch]

David Hamilton, MP for Midlothian will stand down in May.

If we ignore the SNP wave for a minute it's worth spending time on where sitting Labour MP's standing down could effect the race in Scotland. The main one is Glenrothes MP Lindsay Roy who is standing down. He has a huge personal vote in Glenrothes which is held at Holyrood by SNP MSP Tricia Marwick who also has a huge personal vote in what must be a unique. Even with the SNP in the 40's in the polls, Labour retains Glenrothes. Less likely now. Same as Kirkcaldy next door which is losing Gordon Brown.

A big blow is Anne McGuire in Stirling. Again, a personal vote here as Michael Forsyth's vote as the Tory MP was before her. Whipless Eric Joyce is out in Falkirk and Frank Doran is out in Aberdeen North which are also good bets for the SNP even in a closer rate. Alistair Darling is also out in Edinburgh South West where the Tory vote is swamped by the inclusion of the whole of Sighthill. Sighthill voted SNP in 2007 even though they finished 3rd in Edinburgh Pentlands and it helped oust the Tories in 2011. Labour may have to rely on genteel voters to retain this seat next time around.

[afleitch]

Suspect a hold on a vote-split fluke (while leading precisely nowhere in the constituency) would be more likely, unless underlying voting patterns in Edinburgh have changed hugely.

Midlothian is an interesting one; Labour had a good local by-election in the constituency there towards the end of last year (i.e. well after the SNP poll surge got underway) and of course the area voted No.

Midlothian is probably the most fertile territory left for Labour in Lothian at the moment, in that the SNP are 'weak' here and the Lib Dems and Tories non existent. Even when playing about to create '1974 notionals', this seat (boundaries the same) was solid for Labour. SNP's win in Midlothian North and Musselburgh in 2011 was modest and their vote would be disproportionately strong in Musselburgh which is in East Lothian.

Up until today, I had it as a Labour hold even if the arse fell out of them.

Edinburgh is a difficult city to predict because voters there are probably the most fluid and the most attentive as to who is running against whom and where. So how the boundaries fall here make all the difference. Edinburgh East for example takes a bite right into the city; it takes in the Castle, Old Town and the University and a chunk of students When I looked at the results for that seat had the Holyrood election taken place on it in 2007, the SNP won it (even though it didn't include Musselburgh) because it's vote in what were then 'no-hope' seats was uniform.

That's an SNP strength and weakness. It's vote across Scotland is so uniform now that a wave vote for them would mean they would swamp the seats across the country. The SNP have that uniform support both in urban and rural areas.

In 2011 and again, looking at the polls, the SNP are taking Labour votes right from actual Labour voters, particularly in the C2DE range (who were also sympathetic to Yes) Labour will probably hold up on the strength of borrowing votes from Tories and Lib Dems. I wouldn't be surprised if they retain East Ren, Aberdeen South, Central Ayrshire etc but end up losing Motherwell, Kirkcaldy etc.

[afleitch]

Also worth stressing that Ed's approvals are dire in Scotland and regularly tie with David Cameron's. A friend of mine is doing the research into that one, but it might be the first time since polling began that a Tory leaders approval ratings have bested a Labour leaders approvals in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon who is genuinely 'left wing' (as much as you can be genuinely 'that away' and hold the position that she does) also has approval ratings that are unhealthily high for a western democracy. If she actually gets to be on the telly debates too then it's a perfect storm for the SNP.

[afleitch]

The internet has been crying out for an editable map of Wales Though now you might be moving in the direction of my territory

[afleitch]

Natalie Bennett's interview this morning was an absolute unmitigated disaster.

[afleitch]

Sturgeon on Marr was fairly good...

[afleitch]

YouGov poll of Wales: Labour 37, Con 23, UKIP 16, Plaid 10, Green 8, LDem 6

Usual caveats about the historic issues with polling in Wales, etc, etc.

No major change on the last Wales poll:

Lab +1; Con N/C; UKIP -2; Plaid -1; Green +3; Lib +1

Electoral Calculus' Wales predictor (where you sadly can't predict Plaid) says:
Lab - 36 seats
Plaid - 3
Con - 1
Lib - 0

Looks like the Conservatives won't do well in Wales then...

?

I have it no change. They lose Cardiff North but gain Brecon.  Labour gain Cardiff Central.

[afleitch]

Thing is, Scottish polls have shown everything from a 10 point lead to a 28 point lead this month. How on Earth can anyone project what's happening up there?

Of course, 10 points behind would still be a complete disaster for Labour, but I'm sure they'd take it considering the last few months that Scottish Labour has had.

Using the Survation poll - that had a 20 point SNP lead over Labour (http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Cross-tab-Record-tables_1_26.pdf) which is probably a mid range poll.

Lab - 42 seats (+1)
SNP - 14 seats (+8)
Con - 2 seats (+1)
Lib - 1 seat (-10)

That's a shock.

EDIT - Map

I don't mean to be rude (because I called you out on your Wales projection) but how on earth are you getting these results? The figures for Survation on a crude swing would give the SNP 51 seats. How are you calculating, even for fun, that the SNP with a 20 point lead over Labour would only gain 1 seat from them?

[afleitch]

We're getting a drop of Ashcroft constituency polls for Scotland tomorrow I think.