538 Model Megathread

[afleitch]

Serious question - why does the Nowcast do a trendline? That doesn't make sense to me. If Clinton leads in Nevada now (as she does per their poll model) why would the Nowcast not predict her as ahead?

I've wondered that too. I also think he's launched his model too soon. There has been a relative drought in state polls in comparison to recent years. There's a poll from November in his model for Nevada. That shouldn't be there at this stage.

[afleitch]

The three models have broadly converged. How long are they going to hedge their bets

[afleitch]

Absolutely astounding that fraudster Nate Silver is making Donald Trump not the biggest conman in this election.

So are you still supporting Trump or not?

I wouldn't dream of stopping now. It's time for a New New Deal in the White House, and only one candidate is willing to give it to us.

Wait, why did you hate Bernie so much then?

Because of his SJW cultists. I supported him tacitly until it became about muh transgender snake people campaigning on equality for the oppressed demipolysexuals rather than anything of substance for real people who actually matter (i.e. not privileged attention-whores).

e: this is not intended to be transphobic. I simply listed that as a group that is deeply over-represented in the cult.

You're making a broad assumption that Donald Trump is a real person.

[afleitch]

538 adds the Quinnipiac polls, adjusts them up in Clinton's favour and Trump's chances bounce up. He's up from 13.7 to 16.9 on the now cast over the course of the day. I find that unusual.

[afleitch]

I see the junk polls have erased Clinton's bounce.

[afleitch]

I see the junk polls have erased Clinton's bounce.

Poor, poor Nate.

We have less polls this year (and 2012 was less than 2008) because 'who needs polls, we have the models', which in turn leads to less polls going into the model and polls designed to impact upon the model. There needs to be something like the British Polling Council; if you're not signed up and you're not transparent, then it's not counted as a poll.

[afleitch]

I love these solid national polls are driving Clinton down in the model :/