London 2008

[afleitch]

Boff has quite a strong starting base in the Tories - I would give Boris the edge but I'd rather see Boff get the nod a sthe Ken machine really don't have much on him, bar his sexuality. Would Ken's men try and use that against him? Damn right they would.

[afleitch]

Boff has quite a strong starting base in the Tories - I would give Boris the edge

Is there actually a chance that Johnson won't be the Tory candidate?

Oh yes. We excercise this strange notion of internal party democracy in mayoral candidate selection The race to be the London mayoral candidate has only really begun. Internally, Boris is well liked, but it would be ludicrous to say that Boff doesn't have a chance. I think he'd be a better candidate than Boris and I hope that filters through to the primary voters.

[afleitch]

Lol @ turnout.

Lol @ turnout indeed. But at least we gave voters the chance to participate in an open primary.

[afleitch]

The Evening Standard claim they've got a poll putting Johnson at 47%.

Any other numbers for this poll?

YouGov polled Boris 49% and Ken on 37%

[afleitch]

Lol @ turnout.

Lol @ turnout indeed. But at least we gave voters the chance to participate in an open primary.

Why don't you do it for MPs then?

In alot of selections we do; Hammersmith for example.

When I say 'we'; I mean the Tories.

[afleitch]

It seems Livingston is really struggling but can anyone actually conceive of Johnson being elected 

About 49% of Londoners polled it seems

I think they are just tired of Ken's 'jobs for the boys' (and 'money for the boys') city hall.

[afleitch]

London Assembly constituencies are nicely gerrymandered against LDs.  The five yellow seats are in three separate constituencies. 

I tend to find Londons seats the most 'sane' of any of the old mets (with the exception of the West Midlands) What hurts the Lib Dems in some parts of London is that their support is not as concentrated as Tory or Labour support, which is still based along class/economic lines.

They are in danger of loosing seats, on the Westminster level in swathes of the 'Thames Wedge'; straddling the river from Surbiton through to the City of London where the Tories made strides in 2005 (and some of their easiest targets are there next time round). It will be interesting to note Boris' support there.

[afleitch]

As much as I'd love to see a swing *to* Labour in the GLA (some of Labour's candidates in marginal seats are pretty good compared to those from 2004) I don't think it's especially likely. Interesting to see that Livingstone is apparently no longer running ahead of the rest of Labour. Numbers for both main parties still look too high.

True. It appears Livingstone's personal vote has taken a hit (and Boris seems to have a personal vote of his own - either that or 'anyone but Livingstone')

Good to see UKIP down, but that was expected after a fairly strong performance that year nationwide. I anticipate the BNP vote will be higher, though YouGov has fairly acceptable methodology for encouraging shy voters to express their preferences. Not perfect of course. I'd forgotten about the CPA - i'll look forward to seeing the voting patterns for that shower.

[afleitch]

I would guess a mixture of both; the lolBorisasMayor!!!11 vote probably won't turn out, but Livingstone has been hated in some of the suburbs for decades.

I suspect that Livingstone believed Boris would 'defeat himself.' It's always Livingstone's arrogance that gets the better of him as may be the case in May.

The BNP are only running in one constituency (City and East) so they won't poll higher than that. On the constituency vote anyway. They are also running on the list and will certainly poll higher than that (high enough to win a seat as well. Urgh).

Which will of course be quite the coup. It will of course make them more of a legitimate threat, though might have idiots in the press saying how PR is terrible because it lets in the BNP in (ignoring the threshold in place)

Want some maps from last time?

If you've got them I've been keeping track of the vote shares of these sorts of parties in the UK. They often have different guises and public faces but have the same people, money and churches behind them.

[afleitch]

Nice to see the voting pattern in Chiswick. I think my Chris might be a bit p-ed off though

--

Boris Johnson says 'no thanks' to BNP support.

I utterly and unreservedly condemn the BNP and have no desire whatsoever to receive a single second preference vote from a BNP supporter.  I hope as many Londoners as possible turn out on May 1st to prevent the election of a BNP candidate.

[afleitch]

Boris Johnson says 'no thanks' to BNP support.

I utterly and unreservedly condemn the BNP and have no desire whatsoever to receive a single second preference vote from a BNP supporter. 

Didn't say anything about their first preferences so the headline is misleading.

He was responding specifically to the BNP requesting those who vote for them second preference Johnson.

[afleitch]

Boris Johnson says 'no thanks' to BNP support.

I utterly and unreservedly condemn the BNP and have no desire whatsoever to receive a single second preference vote from a BNP supporter. 

Didn't say anything about their first preferences so the headline is misleading.

He was responding specifically to the BNP requesting those who vote for them second preference Johnson.

That much was obvious.

So whats the problem? Unless you think that Labour and the Tories shouldn't lance the boil by getting potential BNP voters to stick with the sane parties

[afleitch]

Nice to see the voting pattern in Chiswick. I think my Chris might be a bit p-ed off though

Is he not a Tory like you are?

No. But he wouldn't vote Labour if you paid him

[afleitch]

None of the 'wee diddy parties' for me thanks

1. Boris Johnson.
2. Brian Paddick
3. Siân Berry
4. Ken Livingstone.

1. Conservative Party
2. Liberal Democrats
3. Green Party
4. Labour Party

[afleitch]

OK, where's the catch? Merger of two "Christian Parties". Their policies look half-way reasonable. I can't help thinking something is up though.

They are a front for the Green/Hargreaves 'Chrsitian Voice' w@nkmobile. Quite a few of the membership have been involved in unsuccessful 'entryist' politics in a few Tory (and one Labour IIRC) constituency parties. They are horrible people pretending they are 'Christian Democrats like in Europe.'

Everything I said was 100% biased but I had to face down the b*stards under another name up here.

[afleitch]

Will UKIP actually gain seats?

No.

[afleitch]

(currently torn between Berry and German)

Gag.

[afleitch]

(currently torn between Berry and German)

Gag.

Oh, piss off.

So saying 'Boris Johnson (gag)' is all right but a half assed attempt at a parody is worth you telling someone to piss off? Why the hell would you want to vote for German anyway? I can understand Berry from what I know about you, but German? That's why I 'gagged'

[afleitch]

I just realised why you might have said what you did, because I capitalised 'German' - that wasn't what I was meaning.

[afleitch]

Fact of the day - Brian Paddick says he became a 'born again' Christian at the age of 24.

[afleitch]

YouGov have Boris up 11%... not much movement in their poll to be honest (Boris +2/ Ken -2 on first preferences and a little movement on second preferences).

Its worth bearing in mind that no UK pollster has a good record polling the London races.

True. If anything, it's a battle of the polsters and of methodology. YouGov are really trying to prove that they can poll well in sub national polls.

[afleitch]

A taste of the London Evening Boris:

You should read the pleading commentary in the Guardiken

[afleitch]

Ken on Kate Hoey - 'a sort of semi-detached member of the Labour Party in recent years'

Oh really and what what were you Ken

As much as I would welcome Hoey to the Tory front benches (along with Frank Field and Gisela Stuart) I don't think she should have the whip withdrawn despite demands. Tories advised Brown in his hallowed 'Govt of all the talents' (and left/quit unceremoniously...) and their position as Conservative MP's was not under threat. If Hoey wants to advise Boris on sport should she win then it's a step in the right direction by our party too.

[afleitch]

Is it May 1st or April 1st?

Harry's Place claims that 'a little birdie' has said Ken used to be a Young Conservative in Streatham in the 60's.

[afleitch]

ConHome...strangely and prematurely...call it for Boris.