UK Opinion Polls Thread

[afleitch]

Speaking of which we are doing some 'testing of the waters' in Lanark and Hamilton East. We are a little hopeful of coming from 4th to 2nd here.

With the SNP first?

We don't tend to think about the other parties I think we can come in 3rd myself and that's about it.

I think the SNP can overhaul double digit Labour majorities in a host of seats from Edinburgh East to Livingston. However it is very difficult to predict. Seats like Stirling are particularly tricky. If SNP popularity takes a slide and Labour remain low then it makes everything interesting. I would expect an unhealthy number of 3 or even 4 way marginals.

While I don't expect them to outpoll Gordon Brown in his seat I would bet a few pennies on it anyway. Alistair Darling is probably the biggest scalp, if the Tories can benefit in Edinburgh SW

[afleitch]

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister. 

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

Yes and No. It handily combines it with the Euros

However I (hack hat on) believe Brown has every intention of bringing the party down with him. He will hang on until the last possible moment in 2010.

Going in 2009 I think is better for him TBH. It is anticipated that mid 2010 will see an uptick in the economy and the 'mini-boom' that will bring. With the Tories in the door they will simply claim credit for it or be associated with it at the very least. Always remember that the Tories got a drubbing in 1997 after 3 years of solid growth on the part above the Eurozone average. We may end up with a Tory landslide, but it will provide them with a years worth of a shaky economy and all the problems that may entail if the recovery is not as strong as is hoped.

If they go into the election whenever it is, if they privately prepare for defeat (unlike the Tories in '97) they will be all the better for it.

[afleitch]

Guys, it's one poll in 2008. This election could be in two years time.

True. But the Tories have maintained a 10% then a 15-20+% lead in the polls for some months now. The Tories target is a 42% vote share. They may exceed that but they won't get over a 50% share. To do so, and to heap up a majority of 200-300 would be dangerous for the British democractic process.

I will accept a Tory landslide that is enough to keep them in power for 2 or 3 terms. But I don't want a 1931 style rout.

[afleitch]

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Speaking of panic and showing what a moveable lot the voters are.

Probably best for an update. The Tories began to dive in September falling below 40% in one ComRes poll in October and sinking below 40% 'for real' in mid December. Labour soared above 30% to hit 35-36 in mid December with a Tory lead of a few %

But 2009 has painted a different picture so far with leads of 10, 9, 13 and 14, putting the Tories back to pre conference levels, but not near the inflated summer lead.

[afleitch]

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Which makes the likelihood of such situation....

Well, I'd put the odds at decently high.  Much higher than you might think.

I actually agree with that statement. Even if Brown waits until 'last moment 2010' and the economy is spluttering to life again, what is behind him may haunt him. This recession may break all sorts of post war 'records' - economic contraction, bailouts, bankruptcies and even break Thatcher's unemployment record. What will the government have going for it?

I doubt Labour will fall below 150 seats or anthing calamatous, but a 1997 style rout is a possibility. It will be interesting to see the strength of the SNP at national level and what that could translate to. On that note I'd still put a flutter on Brown loosing his seat.

[afleitch]

Now a 15 point lead with ComRes; 43-28-16

[afleitch]

Bit of a Lib Dem resurgence (from a low point) in the past two polls. Tories dropping back but Labour falling back even sharper as they fall below 30%. Support for Greens, Nats and BNP up.

[afleitch]

Do any pollsters break down the "others" in detail?

Yes. But the subsample is usually so small it's meaningless in most cases. Especially if support is regional.

[afleitch]

The Lib Dem surge continues, just 3 points behind Labour

ComRes

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 25 (-3)
LIB 22 (+6)

Labour are effectively in freefall shedding 9 points since the last ComRes poll of 2008.

[afleitch]

Different picture from YouGov

CON 44 (+1)
LAB 32 (-)

No confirmation of Lib Dem figures.

[afleitch]

It is good to see that Labour's post conference bounce has now vanished. It will be interesting to see how closely the polls match with the result...but that is still a year away.

As way off as the Labour at 55% polls were in 1996, the end result was right - landslide.

[afleitch]

The 1992 General Election was a polling fiasco. Labour 'overperformed' in all the 52 polls in the month prior and in all 16 in the week prior. The Conservatives overperformed in just 1 poll out of 52 and no pollster got the vote share right (42%)

In 1997 Labour were overestimated by 4 or 5 points on average in the final week polls (and not too dissimilar to their overestimation on 1992 but the result disguised the error) Tories were underestimated by less than 0.5 points

In 2001 Labour were overestimated by 5 (4. points again in the final weeks polling and the Tories again by about a half point (0.6)

In 2005 Labour were overestimated by 2 points on average (1.9) . The pollsters were spot on with the Tories and less than a 10th of a point out on average.

Based on the last weeks polling (when pollsters start to implement and tweak turnout models) they seem to get the Tories spot on. As for Labour there may still be a slight overestimation of their vote. There is of course PoliticalBettings 'Smithson's Rule' – the lowest vote share for Labour in an opinion poll (if a few are released with overlapping fieldwork) is likely to be the correct one. We can only wait and see if that is correct.

[afleitch]

Some interesting results from Populus. The headline figures were CON 42, LAB 30, LIB 19 but the pollster has started looking at employment demographics...at least as a start

Employed by the Private Sector Support CON 45, LAB 29, LIB 17
Enployed by the Public Sector (woot!) CON 38, LAB 26, LIB 23

So a healthy lead in both. While the Times reported the Tories strength amongst the private sector, to me the real interest is the public sector. It was noted that The Tories are ahead amongst NHS and local government workers, while support amongst teachers splits almost evenly between the three main parties. Hopfully there will be more polls on this later with larger sub samples.

[afleitch]

Recent roundup....

G20 seems along time ago. Brown (read Labour) may, or may not have had a bounce as a result. However the recent 'smeargate' story, which has had legs for the best part of a week and a bit has thrown Labour back below the 30% mark with 2 polls showing Labour on 26% (one was by BPIX who are unregistered so should be discarded) This may be short term; Labour last trailed in the mid 20's from June - September 2009. The Tories, treading at 40% appear to have had a slight uptick and the Lib Dems are at the high teens, low 20's...a gradual improvement in recent months.

[afleitch]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/patrick__hennessy_/blog/2009/04/21/new_poll_gives_david_cameron_pause_for_thought

Reliable poll?

If this is accurate, well, I knew I had a reason to be skeptical of the Tory lead...

MORI's poll out today has CON 41, LAB 28, LIB 22. So a 13 point lead there. People get oddly worried because the Tories only have a 10 point lead.

[afleitch]

People get oddly worried because the Tories only have a 10 point lead.

Isn't that close to the bare minimum of what they need to win enough seats though?

Only on a Uniform National Swing. But the country don't swing like that. A UNS swing in 2005 would have seen a Labour majority of 100. They got 66. It is probably more important who is voting, not how they are voting; if Tory voters come out and vote they get in. If Labour voters stay at home they get in. There doesn't have to be many 'switchers' from Labour to Tory for the Tories to win a majority.

I've spoken to Al about starting a General Election thread with swings, seats and gadgets for the next election.

Which will probably be sooner than most people think

[afleitch]

First post budget (treat with caution) poll

YouGov, with changes on the last YouGov poll

CON 45 (+4)
LAB  27 (-7)
LIB   18 (+2)

Which could give a Tory majority of 154 seats

[afleitch]

The Tories got their post-Budget bounce scoring 45% in the past 3 polls. Labour are between 26 and 27 and the Lib Dems between 17 and 18.

It seems unlikely anything can drive Labour below 25%.

However a breakdown of the 2005 'recall' vote in the ComRes poll makes for interesting reading. Labour have a 'retention' level of 50% (based on 2005 voters voting again) with 17% switching to the Tories and 6% to the Lib Dems (these figures have fluctuated) Labour's retention has been at between 50-60% for some time now. By comparison the Tories are holding onto 90%+ voters.

[afleitch]

After a quiet period (about two weeks) two polls are out tomorrow. One gives the Tories a 16pt lead, the other a 22 pt lead. More soon.

[afleitch]

Populus

CON 39 (-4)
LAB 26 (-4)
LIB 22 (+4)

[afleitch]

YouGov

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 22 (-5)
LIB 19 (+1)

Lowest Labour vote share in a Westminster voting intention opinion poll in 60 years of polling

[afleitch]

YouGov

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 22 (-5)
LIB 19 (+1)

Lowest Labour vote share in a Westminster voting intention opinion poll in 60 years of polling

Alex Salmond must be frothing at the mouth at the thought of an election right now.

Big question is where is the -2 and -5 going? the Lib Dems must be soo thrilled to see they still can't catch a break, then again, Lembit Opik looked the fool on BBC today, I'm just not sure if the LD's are catching as much heat as the two big parties.

The 'Others' share always creeps up around the time of the Euros and this recent crisis has inflated that even more. Seeing a 41% vote share for the Tories and down just 2 points after everything is pleasing. It means the Tory core vote is stronger than people often give them credit for. Cameron this week acted like Blair did when he was in opposition...and I mean that as a compliment.

[afleitch]

Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but are there any actual policies where the Conservatives differ substantively from the Labour Party?  Or are they simply a lighter shade of red, ideologically speaking? 

Yes. There are many differences, but it would take some time to mention

For your visual pleasure, here are the polls since January. I've used a 3 poll 'rolling' average. As the pollsters seem to publish polls very regularly now, any differences in methodology are ironed out.



Notice the Tories, for now, bouncing between 40 and 45%

[afleitch]

Am I right in thinking 20% is not the ceiling for the Lib Dems... are they really not going to benefit from Labour's horrible numbers.


That graph is really interesting though. Is it possible they could actually intersect at some point? What kind of reaction would that news story get?

It depends on whether it is permanent. In October 2003, in the days of Blair, Duncan Smith and Kennedy, One poll had a 33/33/28 split. Almost a year later one poll had the Lib Dems ahead of Labour by one point (Lab 28, Lib 29) So there were times of madness in the polls in the last parliament. However these soon settled again.

It would take a series of polls of Labour falling behind the Lib Dems for it to make a serious impact. Labour is in a catch 22. It cannot afford to have Brown as leader, or to remove him. They cannot afford to fight an election (yet) as they have serious fundraising problems.

[afleitch]

Is there any light anywhere for them? Other than they have reached the bottom (have they?)

The economy might begin to recover early next year. Emphasis on might.

Probably won't affect the outcome by much. Remember that the economy had 4 years of robust growth after the ERM crisis. In the polls the Tories were ahead of Labour on who best to manage the economy in 1997. A few months of an improving economy will not be enough to reverse Labours deficit on this issue.

Cameron looked like the PM this week. He is Blair circa '96. It may also all end in tears in ten years time but for now....