UK Opinion Polls Thread

[afleitch]

BPIX (not a member of the British Polling Insitute) has

CON 42
LAB 20
LIB 15

Others are at 23%

[afleitch]

And ComRes has:

CON 40
LAB 21
LIB 18

Poll showing the Tories leading in every part of the country (including Scotland) and amongst every social group

[afleitch]

Probably won't affect the outcome by much. Remember that the economy had 4 years of robust growth after the ERM crisis. In the polls the Tories were ahead of Labour on who best to manage the economy in 1997. A few months of an improving economy will not be enough to reverse Labours deficit on this issue.

No, but it might contract the Tory lead slightly.

So reduce a 20+ lead to a 15+ or 10+ lead perhaps? That still means a Conservative victory and at the rate things are going, a landslide. I do expect voters to drift back to Labour as they did for the Tories in 96-97. But I do not believe it will be enough to help Labour anything other than to limit the damage.

[afleitch]

(including Scotland)

lol?

Yes.

I expect the Tories to poll 20-22% in the next election. However if Labour collapse, I don't expect them to hold up here. The SNP are favourites to top the poll. Expect some crazy swings up here...

[afleitch]

Bit of an update.

[afleitch]

Update. In two polls Labour seemed to rebound; populus has a 39/27/17 split. However a week later, the Tories rose 2 points to 41, Labour slumped to 21 down 6 and the Lib Dems also took a hit down 2 to 15.

ICM are now out. The Tories are up 1 from 39 to 40, Labour down 6 to 22...and the Liberal Democrats are up 5 to 25 overtaking Labour

[afleitch]

Populus and ICM are so strikingly in disagreement that it's hard to know who to believe. The only things they agree on are that Labour is in the toilet, and the Greens are surging for the Euros.

ICM Euro figures are:

Con 29
LD 20
Lab 17
Green 11
UKIP 10
BNP 5

The "third behind the LDs" headline is really tough on Labour, though. It means tactical switchers on the left, the sort who would never vote for the Tories/UKIP and also not the sort for the BNP, from Labour to the LDs (and maybe the Greens for Euros). Could reinforce the decline that has so far been held back a bit by the sense that Labour are the leading party of the left/social liberalism.

ICM tend to 'apportion' Lib Dem votes differently and are often over generous so I agree with you there. For me the real relief is seeing (barring the slip to 39) a Tory 'floor' of 40% which leads me to believe that a Conservative landslide may be in the works. The two 'rules' over on Poltiicalbetting.com is 'Everytime Cameron is on the telly the Tories get a boost' and 'The lowest Labour vote share in any set of polls is most likely to be the correct one.' Whether they will hold true is another matter.

Once again there is talk of ousting Brown if the results next week are severe and there is open hostility towards him on nearly every Labour media source. Any move of that nature would probably force a General Election. To be honest Labour have everything to loose no matter when they call a GE -they may as well go now.

[afleitch]

And of course all that PR talk sounds rather silly if this latest poll is confirmed. I don't see Labour supporting any system that may see them ousted not only from government but effectively from opposition. Loose that status, and the coverage and mandate that gives and the Labour party is effectively dead.

[afleitch]

My prediction - General Election next month.

That would take us into July. Holiday time. Brown won't go to the country because huge numbers of people won't be there I expect an autumn election.

Of course...and there may be a but...we could see a 'shy Labour' factor in play in the polls. Luckily we have election next week to test that out.

[afleitch]

I suspect they're quite correct on where the LDs stand right now--but it's very much open to question how well that would hold up if Labour actually ousted Brown and replaced him with Johnson. Probably not well. But will Labour even have the political will to do so? I'm not sure.

People were talking about Brown in early 2007 in the same way they are now talking about Johnson. I personally find Alan Johnson very annoying...that aside however, it's the Labour Party that is damaged. All Johnson may be able to do is save Labour from falling below 30% at a GE. Still leaves room for a Tory victory.

Clegg however has to be very careful; the membership and many in the party still have a tendency to cosy up to Labour, yet the polls show it's voters prefer Cameron and the Tories over any Labour led adminstration by a sizeable margin. Cameron has 'love bombed' the Lib Dems in the past; he will have an easy line of attack if the Lib Dems associate with Labour. They will have to heed the lesson of the 2007 Holyrood elections.

[afleitch]

that aside however, it's the Labour Party that is damaged.

Regrettably, this is true. People do not expect Labour figures to have snouts-in-trough in such as way, and this is why we have been so badly hurt by this. The thing is, Wilson was right. The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.

And to compound things, it looks like it's Cameron whose going on the 'moral crusade.' He is very good at playing 'anrgy/concerned' while looking normal. It is not usualy for Tory politicians to 'out normal' Labour ones...

That aside, what Labour have to look out for is where their vote takes a hit. The elections should also confirm if the SNP are now the 'natural' party for government in Scotland. It was announced this week that Labour are concerned the only MP left in the east of Scotland next year will be Gordon Brown (Darling is heavily tipped to loose his seat)

Locals should also paint a picture of what to expect next year. I think Sunderland Central and Bury South are odds on Tory gains at the GE, even if the national swing is less based on the last local election cycle. The Tories have learned from the Lib Dems how to 'suffocate' the opposition from some seats locally that a few years later have swung or fallen to the challenger.

And to be blunt. They have shitloads of money, and most of it has already been spent before the election to ensure they will win their target seats.

[afleitch]

MORI comes up with:

Con: 40 (-1)
Lab: 18 (-10) !!!
LD: 18 (+4)

MORI has a very strict certainty-to-vote filter that is probably skewing things a bit, but wow...

Based on the whole sample:

CON: 35
LAB: 24
LIB: 19
Greens: 7
UKIP: 5
BNP: 3
SNP: 3
Other: 4

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/_assets/pdfs/may09-political-monitor-topline.pdf

But you cannot base it on the whole sample either....

[afleitch]

ComRes sounds like it's going to be fun...if you believe, as I do that Labour on 18% is trash look forward to what ComRes may be saying about the Tories.

[afleitch]

The ComRes poll is... interesting. Don't what to say about it other than that ComRes is trash. As politicalbetting.com has pointed out, their past vote weightings are all skewed, but even applying the ICM weightings instead just turns it into Con 33, LD 20, Lab 19, which, while not bad for the Lab and LD figures is obviously off for the Con figure--although scaling the Other vote down to 13% or so would make it not far off from the ICM figures, maybe to Con 38, LD 24, Lab 22, or along those lines.

Anyway, ComRes:

Con: 30 (-10)
Lab: 22 (+)
LD: 18 (nc)

Mike Smithson suggested that if you used ICM's stable weightings, you'd get a Tory lead of 15%. Independent are putting it on their front page. However it is is, probable; that if not substantiated by another poll they will be pulled up by the British Polling Council. There is talk of trying to adjust for 'shy' voters; particularly shy Labour voters.

It looks right for a Euro poll, which people thought it was at the start. Luckily Thursday will act as a valuable barometer.

[afleitch]

YouGov has a new pair of polls for Euros and a GE.

GE:

Con: 37 (-2)
Lab: 21 (-1)
LD: 19 (+1)

Again, Others are ridiculously high; UKIP is at an absurd 8%, and the Greens aren't much better at 5%. 4% Nats is not totally unrealistic, but 4% for the BNP is. Stupid Euros, skewing the GE polls. Anyway, Euros...

Euros:

Con: 26 (-1)
UKIP: 18 (+2)
Lab: 16 (-1)
LD: 15 (nc)
Green: 10 (+1)
BNP: 5 (-2)

Yes. The thing to watch is the gap between Labour and the Tories, currently 16 points.

[afleitch]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

I see... will I search for "BBC" or what?

Remember, Euros will be covered on Sunday when the counting takes place.

[afleitch]

No General Election until all is revealed by the expenses enquiry. Lets just see who exactly has been abusing the system before we throw the bums out

I don't think we can last that long. It's pretty much over; Brown, Labour, the government, it's done. Whether there is an election now, or next June the result I feel will be the same, but the effect of a government in crisis during a crisis is not good for Britain. It's better to go to the country sooner rather than later.

[afleitch]

Balls does better than Brown..does anyone know Ed Balls is? I'm pleased to see Johnson could only close the gap to 10 points. We are already sharpening our knifes should he become leader but I would consider the public will see to that.

[afleitch]

With the conference season over, polls have returned to where they were before it began with 2 and 4pt leads for the Tories with YouGov. A fuller picture should be clear by the end of the weekend.

[afleitch]

I may have to adjust this at some point, due to the changes in the position of the Yellow Party, but as a guide to the last election it's fine.

North of the wall the divide is clearly between 'bath' and 'beth.' Those who say 'beth' support the Yellow Party or the Blue Party if they have a surname as a first name and support the Blue and White Party if they don't. They are fans of the field sport with the squashed ball or if surrounded by round ball fans; Partick Thistle. Those who say 'bath' vote for the Red Party (from 2007-2010 The Broon Party) even if they now own the type of house where there is clearly a 'beth.' They are fans of the field sport with the round ball. Those who are concerned about bowler hat etiquette but say 'bath' and like the round ball now also vote for the Blue and White Party as they are concerned that the Red Party is too Green (not be be confused with Green Green, but rather green green but of course to explain all that would just be silly). There are also some supporters of the Fake Tan Party (subsequently Faketanidarity) who want to be redder than the average Scot.

[afleitch]

Bear in mind 'politics' hasn't really started back up again since the GE; at least not in people's minds.

We had an overload at the start of the year with expenses, then the GE then the summer, then the conference season and then a few piddling weeks before the festive season. Business as usual will start up again in the New Year

Also the Lib Dems often do creep back down between elections; it's a bigger drop than usual but I don't think it presents a true picture. The Lib Dems still remain a powerful 'not Labour/not Tory' choice for many voters.

Oh - and can I also thank Labour supporters and those who sympathise in the media for focusing your guns on the Lib Dems for the past 6 months. You've hardly given the Tories a challenge If the fall out from May 2010 is all you focus on for the next few years then that would be super - k thnx.

[afleitch]

Also the Lib Dems often do creep back down between elections

When Joe Public forget that they even exist. Hardly an excuse now...

Gotta feel sorry for the Tories though. If they had a majority, they wouldn't have all this dysfunction and division dragging them down. The Liberals are harming any potential for good government.

If the Tories had a small majority I can assure there would have been more 'dysfunction' courtesy of the backbench 'awkward squad.'

I do wonder whether 'potential for good government' will matter come May when Labour tries to form an administration at Holyrood. The SNP aren't going around trashing the Lib Dems for example

[afleitch]

You have a serious simmering problem with your leader that will have to be adressed quite soon.

[afleitch]

Holyrood Constituency: CON 9%, LAB 49%, LDEM 7%, SNP 33%
Holyrood Regional: CON 9%, LAB 47%, LDEM 7%, SNP 33%, GRN 3%

LOL

[afleitch]

I'll expand upon that a little. To start off with the Lib Dem figures seems about 'right'; it's in line with both Holyrood and Westminster polls. (Lib Dems have a ratio of Westminster-1 : 0.93-Holyrood in terms of votes) Labour on 49% would probably be it's largest vote share in any election in Scotland ever. SNP on 33% would actually be higher than their 2007 score, so again it might be just a few percentage points off the mark.

The Tories have been underpolled in Holyrood elections since...well ever. Not one (okay - well maybe one) Holyrood opinion poll in Scotland in 11, nearly 12 years has predicted the Tory share correctly (which has held up). They always underestimate their support. The Tories in Scotland are not really affected by being in government as they hold little mainstream support anyway. However their core vote is constant and it comes out to vote on the day.(Scottish polls haven't got to grips with turnout models so far)

Labour are vastly over estimated. I don't think that with the campaign still to get under way, they are even above 40%. I cannot see where Labour has aquired an extra 18 points from. It will be interesting to see what past Lib Dem voters are doing. Lib Dem voters in Scotland (excepting students...and what they will do this year will be interesting) are not the same beast as they are in England. The residual SDP presence is not as strong either in the party structure or where they pick up seats.

The regional poll is way off if you look at it. That's all that really needs to be said.

If I was to take a stab in the dark on constituency support I'd probably say LAB 31-37, SNP 30-35, CON 15-18, LIB 8-12