Interesting, Gustaf, this is something else we have in common. My personal theory is that Osama died in the battle of Tora Bora in eastern Afghanistan December, 2001 (he has not appeared live since), and his deputy, Egyptian Ayman al-Zuwahri, together with most other top Al-qaeda figures like Saad Bin Laden and Abu Musab Zarqawi, are directing the group from Iran, with the support of the Iranian govt. Of course, I can prove no single portion of this theory, but it is based by information fom the generally-surprisingly-correct
Debkafile,
http://www.debka.com/ and fits past experience with both the Al-Qaedists and the Iranaian Ayatollahs. Therefore, I tend to think the decisive turningpoint, the Saratoga or Stalingrad of this war, will be the fall of the Iranian regime, by whatever means.