2016 Republican Nomination Poll - September 2015 (Post-debate)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm sticking with Jeb.

With the exception of Trump, most of what's going on is just noise. Although some of that noise is from candidates falling out of the sky and slamming into the ground. (Walker, Perry, Paul)

Bush isn't in great shape; he's on a slow downward slope right now, but he's got enough money that he's not doomed yet. He won't be doomed until another establishment-friendly candidate (Kasich, Rubio) leaves him in the dust. Until or unless that happens, he's still my favorite to win the nomination. (Odds-wise, that is.)

Most of the candidates are un-nominatable, or non-viable in the general if they were to win the nomination. Bush's real competition is Kaisich and Rubio, with wildcard Trump zooming around hurting Bush's chances as much by wrecking the party's reputation as by out-polling or out-debating him. There are three months before Bush has to worry about defeating Trump for real. That's ages in primary time.