Big mistake today of Rajoy in an interview in the radio: Rajoy said that in an independent Catalonia, the Catalans would lose the Spanish nationality. The journalist had to remind him that the nationality is not lost since they are Spaniards of origin. Quite embarrasing for the President.
So they would all remain Spanish nationals even in the case of independence? That seems odd. From what little I know of nationality law, I believe nationals of newly independent states usually cease to be citizens of the state from which they gained independence. There may be some kind of "opt-in" in some cases, but my inclination is to believe that citizenship is something that would have to be negotiated between Spain and a Catalonian government, as opposed to being a given. I wouldn't say that Rajoy was wrong, but I wouldn't say he was necessarily correct, either... it would depend on what would be agreed upon.
Yes, exactly, they claim that.
On the contrary, CUP has said that they would not support it as merely based on seats. (And also that they would not support Artur Mas as President).
And Junts pel Si will probably need CUP.
I don't know if JpS+CUP will have enough seats between them for a majority-- I know they've ticked up in the polls, though. If they fall short, they'll have to turn to the
Sí Que És Pot bloc, and I've heard mixed things about them. On one hand, I've read that they support "Catalans' right to self-determination", and will back a referendum, but not unilateral independence. On the other hand, I've seen them characterised elsewhere as "soft independentist" and potentially supportive of a UDI. I don't know which one is correct.
The thing that keeps me following this is what happens
after a secessionist victory, and moves beyond the normal (and boring) electoral politics you have almost everywhere in the West these days and
really start to get exciting, if not entirely pleasant for the people involved. (Why do you think I am so interested in Thai politics?
)
As I've posted in the thread in the IGP section, Rajoy would immediately denounce any UDI as illegal and move to suspend the regional-cum-separatist Generalitat. This would involve ordering the police to arrest those involved in illegal acts (i.e., the cabinet and others); from what I've read, however, it appears highly unlikely that the Catalan regional police, the
Mossos d'Esquadra (which translates as "Squad Laddies"-- seriously!), who are immediately responsible to the Generalitat, not to mention Catalans themselves, would do such a thing. This would necessitate calling in the National Police and/or Civil Guard, who are under the direct control of the central government, to make the arrests.
This is where things could start to go pear-shaped. If the Catalonian government decides that they'd rather
not be arrested, they could order the Mossos to block any attempt to detain them. This would directly confronting the Spanish forces, but I can't imagine either side going as far as to use force-- it's far more likely there would be a standoff between the two sides, the Mossos saying
"¡No pasarán!", if you would. But any such scene is overwhelmingly likely to be played against a backdrop of mass protests, which could make things confusing for the Mossos-- having to keep the peace within the region and possibly contain riots whilst simultaneously having to oppose the central government. At this point Rajoy would almost certainly proclaim Catalonia to be in a state of insurrection, and call in the Armed Forces to restore order, at which point all bets are off.
Unsurprisingly, the separatist side is eager to avoid such dramatic confrontation. The
JpS "roadmap" to independence is now said to be as follows:
By stretching out the timeframe for a UDI to a year and a half, the separatists would likely avoid direct confrontation with Madrid until long after the December elections, by which time-- so one imagines they assume-- a left-leaning coalition will have taken office, which would presumably be far more amenable to a negotiated settlement than Rajoy and the PP.* But such an outcome is not assured, as a PP-led coalition remains a very real possibility, and there would be significant resistance from certain corners-- unionists on the left, the civil service, the business community, and, perhaps most significantly, the Armed Forces-- to any accord with a separatist administration in Catalonia. Alternatively, Rajoy could choose to strike before the elections on one pretext or another, even without a UDI, in order to prevent any successor government from negotiating secession, and/or possibly generate a "rally around the flag" effect to win him the election and do the above.
I have gotten excited about Catalonia before, only to be disappointed (even if it almost certainly was for the best). The separatist bloc could very well fail to win a majority in the Parliament, and nothing would happen; life would carry on as usual, and the threat of secession would likely fade. That too would likely be the best outcome, but, if nothing else, it would be
boring. We'll just have to wait and see.
*There is a reason, after all, that, as in Germany, there is "no established party" to the right of the PP; however, unlike Germany, it is not because such a party would be morally repulsive to the general public. Likewise, it is not for a lack of potential sympathisers that there exists no major post-authoritarian party in Spain, as is the case in other former authoritarian states, as the PP-- through its openly "post-Francoist" predecessor, Fraga's "Alianza Popular"-- is that party in all but name. The marginal role accorded to the Falange and the tendentially anti-ideological direction of Francoism also have something to do with it, but that's beside the point.
