Colorado Constituents Recalling (2) State Senators for Gun Control Vote

[Devils30]

On the daily kos site the districts both look like theyre D+8 or around that. Would be quite shocked if either lost.

[Devils30]

The GOP will get a harsh reality check when both of these go Dem in 2014. I don't know much about this district but I have to imagine it's heavily young/Hispanic based on turnout patterns. Some of the suburban Denver districts had over twice as many total voters as this one in 2010. Add to that turnout today was about 60% of 2010!

The GOP is great at winning these super low turnout elections. Good luck with Tancredo or some other tea partier in 2014, I'm sure he'll help out the recall winners with his 36% he'll get in those districts. Presidential elections are the big leagues and the GOP has a long way to go. Enjoy the night morons.

[Devils30]

It's tough to see how the GOP can hold these districts for long barring a total Democratic collapse. When turnout is this low you get odd results. Of course Hickenlooper should be fine unless the GOP can find a real candidate. But the 18% turnout numbers make for wild outcomes. Still i have doubts that this would have worked in Jefferson or Arapahoe county.

[Devils30]

The whole idea of a GOP surge will hit cold water in a couple months when the Dems pick up VA- Gov

[Devils30]

Most likely its just a good warning for Dems in low turnout elections. If Hickenlooper wins re-election it's highly doubtful these districts stay red, even a slight turnout increase will flip them back in 2014.

[Devils30]

The GOP didn't have statewide candidates tonight- clearly a good thing for them as seen by the crap they've put out the past decade.

[Devils30]

Which is exactly why the Dems will retake them probably in 2014. You just have the most devout voters going to the polls when turnout is less than 1/5 of all voters. In Colorado Springs that's conservatives, but the GOP is kidding themselves if they believe this is the pathway back to the White House or even the Governor's mansion (in any state).
CO has been trending D because of young, minority and college educated voters. None of which voted at all in this.

[Devils30]

I don't mean literally that no minority or voter under 30 voted. But obviously it was a super low turnout election. Again, the GOP can cherish their minor league numbers. Beat us in 2016 and then we can talk.

[Devils30]

Sadly, the only people that care about these elections are on here. Between Syria and the NYC mayoral vote, its tough to see this getting more than zero national attention.

[Devils30]

And these are like D+7 districts, tell me the GOP track record in them in general elections. Appealing to a narrow electorate is great for low-turnout votes like tonight. Of course gun control played a role but far less than turnout. That said, Dems might as well wait a decade or so to pursue any gun legislation at the national level. They need an entrenched majority before going beyond simple background checks and at this point economic growth needs to be the agenda driver.

[Devils30]

I can definitely see CO being slightly more GOP than the country in 2016, unlike the past two cycles. Probably not a significant swing but Hillary simply has much more room to grow in VA, NC, FL, PA, OH than CO.

[Devils30]

And the GOP was 33% of all voters today despite being registered at 23% in Giron's. And who knows how many indies are GOP leaners. I do agree that gun control in rural areas is seen much differently and probably has more support in metro Denver.

[Devils30]

I support common sense gun laws but this issue can't be the Dems top priority. Gun control and gay marriage are just not issues where national majorities are made. It's about breaking the GOP's interest groups stranglehold on politics and I would start with their business interests long before taking on the NRA.

[Devils30]

Yeah, PPP is a terrible polling company. Of course we all know how well Rasmussen called 2012. Can't see this having a real effect on gun control legislation simply because Dems really don't control any other swing state legislatures. Even at the national level we've moved onto other issues.

[Devils30]

If they tried this is a hypothetical competitive southern district without vote by mail, I would argue something like that violates Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. More likely the GOP will get cocky and fail when they try this again somewhere.
For some reason Republicans enjoy putting these hard right administrations in power and getting 35% approvals within 6 months of taking office. Look at FL, NC, PA and to a lesser extent MI. If that's what they want in 2016 at the national level they can expect a backlash in 2020 just in time for redistricting.

[Devils30]

It was kind of an odd election with it being the yes or no recall rather than the usual R vs. D matchup. They probably should have released the poll but I'll take PPPs track record any day of the week. Did pretty well in the NYC Mayoral race.

[Devils30]

Can anyone really see Tancredo defeating Hickenlooper? Sure the polls look close now but Tancredo has a laundry list of quotes that can only sink him.