Crist won the Cuban vote by 4

[Devils30]

Miami-Dade County is rapidly becoming a nightmare for the GOP. With 2012 turnout patterns Crist wins the state by at least 2-3%. The oldest Cubans are about 65% R or more while the youngest ones seem to vote D at the same rate as other Hispanics.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/upshot/why-the-cuba-issue-no-longer-cuts-against-democrats-in-florida.html?rref=upshot&_r=0

The embargo shouldn't be a big issue and change things much. Dade County I can see becoming a 67-75% Democratic county in the future that will anchor Florida Democratic wins.

[Devils30]

Florida's new Hispanics are Dems who never voted for Jeb. The older Cubans, who were a much larger proportion of the vote in 2002 have less sway today. The GOP thinking Jebs wife is a magic ticket to going from 27% to 40% with Hispanics is quite mistaken.

[Devils30]

And once you remove the communism factor, Cubans are a heavily urban minority population, characteristics that correlate heavily with Democratic voting.