If Biden loses where does the Democratic Party go? (user search)
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  If Biden loses where does the Democratic Party go? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Biden loses where does the Democratic Party go?  (Read 2326 times)
Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« on: May 05, 2024, 11:29:06 PM »

I can see a car crash of Dem governors claiming to be sensible moderates (while being huge pussies re: crime, immigration, etc.) with an actual hardcore lefty accumulating substantial support until either there is coordinated dropout to help the strongest polling governor, or the lefty wins. Lefty gets destroyed by VP Dakota Doug, "moderate governor" is close.

Dems have 2 potential routes- ones that could determine American politics for years.

1) 2028 becomes 1896, Dems nominate Whitmer or Shapiro and romp to a clear victory. With midterm Senate victories in AK, TX, NC, the party is center-left and enters 2029 with 53-54 Senate seats and seeks to grow its coalition further.

2) Dems go straight into the dumpster with the antisemitic protestors. 2024 is a breaking point and 2026 is a disappointment where Dems merely hold their current senate seats but cannot win AK/TX/NC or anything more. The anti-Israel rhetoric continues and the party becomes a mirror image of Elizabeth Warren and AOC. The communist and islamist slogans become constant and the only people who enjoy working in politics are the Corbynites. Moderate Dem senators in MI, AZ, MI, NV over the years just call it quits. Places like Lackawanna, PA vote 61-38 R.
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Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,091
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2024, 12:24:02 AM »

If Biden loses, Democrats are going to have to come terms with two things.

First, you can't build a winning electoral coalition with only college educated voters. This coalition is an advantage in midterm and off-year elections, but not in a general election when most people are going to vote. They are still outnumbered 2 to 1, and the number of young Americans choosing to earn a college degree will decline in the coming decades as the value of a college education declines. Choosing to appeal to minority voters without a college education based just on racial fear tactics will be less effective as younger Americans have no connection to the civil rights movement and no memories of the Reagan presidency.

Second, how America views itself in the context of the world has changed. As the last of the WW2 veterans die off, younger Americans have no understanding of why the current world system was set up the way it was. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were objective failures. Our allies are now seen as freeloaders, and free trade is now seen as a net negative. Same with immigration. Democrats will need to wrestle these issues from Trump and build a popular public association with their own party as the party of a new, more inward looking America. With the right candidate in 2028, this is possible (just look at how Republicans did an about face from Bush in 2016 and took the anti-intervention issue from Obama).

Not just that they can't win with only college ed voters, college whites are quite pro-Israel (outside white athiest leftists under 30) and not the most in favor of redistributive economic policy. Dems might find themselves completely f***ed if these voters go back to 2000-2004 numbers, which they will if the Dems foreign policy involves supporting foreign terror groups. Combine that with Asians flipping red, GOP winning 45% Hispanics and Dems getting 23% of the WWC vote, it could be a long decade.
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