2014 Senatorial Predictions

[morgieb]

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) - my gut says I'm being optimistic here, but in the absence of significant knowledge and the fear of Miller I guess I lean towards the incumbent.
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) - Pryor is toast IMO. Won't be as bad as Lincoln, but will still be bad.
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) - I'm getting worried that Colorado are starting to weary of Dems, but the opposition here is poor.
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Karen Handel (R) - with any other Republican, I'm gonna back Nunn though.
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) - Hawaii is the only place where Hanabusa's primary challenge is viable IMO, but the way they are campaigning means I feel that Schatz has the slight edge. Either will win the general election.
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) - would be more competitive with a strong candidate though.
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) - THE race to watch. Will favour McConnell for now, but to not believe that Grimes has a shot is pretty unrealistic.
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) - gaining the Chairmanship of the Energy Committee will only help her fundraising. Will probably depend also on how many seats the Dems are sitting on, being 49-49 or 49-50 will probably hand the state to Cassidy.
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) - hopefully the Dems also put gay marriage on the ballot here.
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (R) - he WILL make the race competitive, but it's still Mississippi.
Montana: Steve Daines (R) - has tightened given Baucus's resignation.
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) - would be an R pickup with a stronger candidate.
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) - unconvinced that Pressler will have much of an impact. He's been out of office too long for people to remember him, and this isn't as independent-friendly as Maine.
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) - this is getting interesting though.
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) - nup, a Dem pickup isn't happening unless Capito gets primaried.
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) - why did Cheney even bother?