morgieb
Junior Chimp
Posts: 9,644
Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70
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« on: October 05, 2013, 08:44:26 PM » |
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Alabama: It's Alabama. Even if Shelby quits, they won't lose this. Safe R.
Alaska: Likely R. Genuine risk that Murkowski loses a primary, if she does there's an opening for the Dems if they find an OK candidate.
Arizona: Leans R. I think McCain retires. Without him, it's winnable for the Dems, but it depends on if they can find a decent candidate and if they get any sign of coattails from the top of the ticket.
Arkansas: Leans R. Gettable if Hillary is on the ticket and Beebe runs, but this state is moving in an ugly direction.
California: Safe D. Even if Boxer quits, the Democratic bench is a billion times stronger than the Pub bench, and that's not even counting the blueness of the state.
Colorado: Leans D. Bennett has the advantage due to 2010. But it's one of the Republicans few opportunities, and I reckon whoever the Dems nominate is a worse fit for Colorado than Obama was.
Connecticut: Safe D. Don't really see how the Democrats lose this if Blumenthal won by a solid margin in 2010.
Florida: Leans R. Don't see Rubio lasting long in the Presidential race, so he runs again. Ought to be favoured for this as the Democrats lack a real bench here.
Georgia: Likely R. Rests on Isakson and Nunn. If the former retires and the latter wins, it will be very interesting. Even if Nunn doesn't win, the turnout differences will help, particularly if Hillary is on the top of the ticket. Isakson should win if he runs though.
Hawaii: Regardless of whether Schatz or Hanabusa is the nominee, it's Safe D.
Idaho. Yeah....although I don't think primary voters will forget Crapo's indiscretions that easily, it's Safe R.
Illinois: Leans D (takeover). Gut feel is that this is Brown/Warren 2.0. Kirk may be well-liked, but it's hard to see him getting over the line in a blue state in an election year. In addition, he has had health problems which may affect his capacity to run again. But Kirk can still win if the Dems nominate a weak candidate.
Indiana: Safe R. Should be safe enough, though I have NFI about Coats's strength.
Iowa: Likely R. Grassley will win if he runs again, and he says he will. There's a chance he changes his mind, though.
Kansas: Safe R, duh.
Kentucky: Leans R. Likely Paul runs for President. Winnable but whoever gets the Republican nomination is favoured, Dems have some strong candidates but are they electable at a national level? Of course, if Grimes wins, this race goes into toss-up territory.
Louisiana: Safe R. I think Vitter becomes Governor, but it's hard to see the right circumstances in which a Dem wins.
Maryland: Safe D. Even if Mikulski retires, it's safe.
Missouri: Tilts R. If Nixon runs it will be very tight, perhaps even leaning in his favour. But the Democratic bench here is weak enough that Blunt will be favoured if Nixon doesn't run, despite his weak approvals.
Nevada: Toss-up. If Sandoval runs it'll be hard to hold for Team D. If he doesn't then the Dems are favoured, will a party that's been taken over by Paulites name an electable candidate?
New Hampshire: Tilts R. The elasticity here is well known, but Ayotte probably deserves the advantage for now.
New York: Safe D. One of the safest seats, even if the style of New York politics is changing.
North Carolina: Tilts R. Not the state in which incumbency can be taken for granted, and Burr is still little-known despite being in office for two terms. It depends on who runs though.
North Dakota: Safe R. There are reasons why Hoeven won by 50 points in an open seat.
Ohio: Leans R. Again another race where the Republicans start off with the advantage but is winnable for Team D depending on the top of the ticket and their candidate. That said, Portman has performed well.
Oklahoma: Safe R. The days in which a Blue Dog could win Oklahoma are dying out, even if Coburn quits.
Oregon: Safe D. Wyden has always won in style, and is well-liked among both sides of the political spectrum.
Pennsylvania: Tilts R. Toomey has performed well and deserves favouritism for now, although Sestak is a strong candidate. This race however probably depends on the top of the ticket performances, Clinton vs. anyone not named Christie puts this in the toss-up category.
South Carolina: Safe R.
South Dakota: Safe R, will the Democrats actually run someone this time?
Utah: Safe R.
Vermont: Even if Leahy retires, Safe D.
Washington: Safe D. Murray won't win in a landslide but she'll win regardless.
Wisconsin: Toss-up. Johnson should be in big trouble, but will he get a strong opponent? He has the advantage in a field which doesn't contain Feingold or Kind.
In general, this feels like 2012 reversed - Democrats have a lot of pick-up opportunities, but will they win all of them?
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