The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[morgieb]

It's highly unlikely that Labour would be behind in seats if they were ahead in votes.

Yeah, isn't it common wisdom that Conservative seats get more votes than Labour ones?

[morgieb]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.7%
Labour - 33.8%
Liberal Democrats - 8.3%
UKIP - 11.4%
Greens - 4.3%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 6.1%

Seats

Conservatives - 278
Labour - 274
Liberal Democrats - 22
UKIP - 1
Greens - 1
SNP- 51
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 19

Likely Government - Labour Minority w/ SNP confidence + supply

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 27.5% - 6
SNP - 48.4% - 51
Liberal Democrats - 5.3% - 1
Conservative - 14.6% - 1
Greens - 1.5% - 0
UKIP - 1.7% - 0
Others - 1.0% - 0

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon - SNP
Glasgow North - SNP
Stirling - SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed - Conservative
Stockton South - Labour
Redcar - Labour

Bury North - Labour
Southport - Liberal Democrats
Heywood and Middleton - Labour

Rotherham - Labour
Colne Valley - Labour
Bradford West - Respect
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats

Boston and Skegness - Conservative
Broxtowe - Labour
Loughborough - Conservative

Worcester - Conservative
Dudley South - Labour
Warwickshire North - Labour

Ynys Mon - Plaid Cymru
Ceredigion - Liberal Democrats
Vale of Glamorgan - Conservative

Camborne and Redruth - Conservative
Bristol West - Labour
Wells - Conservative

Brighton Pavillion - Green
Thanet South - Conservative
Rochester and Strood - Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats
Battersea - Conservative
Enfield North - Labour

Norwich South - Labour
Clacton - UKIP
Thurrock - Labour