What would be your strategy to get to 218 if you're the dccc? (user search)
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  What would be your strategy to get to 218 if you're the dccc? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Huh
#1
Appeal to sunbelters and suburbia by focusing on russia and trump
#2
Appeal to rustbelters and rural areas by focusing on healthcare and
#3
Appeal to both, but emphasize the rust belt
#4
Appeal to both, but emphasize the sunbelt
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: What would be your strategy to get to 218 if you're the dccc?  (Read 1843 times)
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,643
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

« on: June 22, 2017, 09:57:04 PM »

The worry with Option 3 is that there just aren't WWC Obama/Trump seats that are winnable. IA-01 is the only one that's true low-hanging fruit in my eyes, though several of course are winnable.

Realistically a House majority has to make some significant inroads through the suburbs.
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morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,643
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2017, 08:56:47 PM »

In reality, there are three areas of focus, ordered from most potential gains/benefit to least:

1) Midwestern and Rust Belt areas
2) Suburban areas where GOP has no business holding seats (CA, NY, NJ, etc)
3) Sunbelt and/or Southern suburban areas

The path to 218 likely picks seats from all three of these categories, but to not start with the lowest-hanging fruit possible is ridiculous. We basically have a question here that goes like this: "Do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Democrats and still do a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote GOP for President in the past election), or do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Republicans and still do to a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote Dem for President in the past election)?".

The answer seems pretty straightforward: we're not in a realignment period just yet.
Thing is that's the thing. Most of those sorts of districts still have Democratic Congresspeople.
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