Australia General Discussion

[morgieb]

Wow. Just wow.

Labor to somehow win?

(In all honesty they won't do better than 30-40 seats....but at the very least they'll make up some ground, which I feared wouldn't be significant for a while there)

[morgieb]

New Newspoll...53/47.

Not the greatest start from Team Abbott it seems.

[morgieb]

I tend to feel that Nielsen give too optimistic numbers to the Opposition from experience...but wowee.

[morgieb]

Only taken 3 months for the bottom to fall off Abbott.

At least for Rudd it took like 30.

lol

[morgieb]

Gay marriage laws in ACT overturned.

I can understand the reasoning, even though I disagree with it.

[morgieb]

Hockey's dumped the promise of a budget surplus.

Umma.

[morgieb]

He's been around for 5 years, so it's natural he's starting to sour.

Though wrt unpopular decisions I have NFI.

[morgieb]

Wouldn't be shocked if the ALP holds on in SA.

The momentum is moving our way, no doubt. The Liberals can thank Abbott for this.

[morgieb]

Now Abbott's having a go at the ABC.

When he's going to learn that he's no longer in Opposition and doesn't need to be so tribal?

[morgieb]

I remember reading an article by Peter Van Oselen a few years back, that warned of the dangers of winning elections before learning the lessons of defeat. I guess that applies for this government a lot.

[morgieb]

Now Nielsen has the Coalition up 52/48.

wat.

[morgieb]

I wonder why Shorten's approval is in free fall. AFAIK he hasn't made any major missteps for his approval to fall by that much.

[morgieb]

55-45 ALP. This is in the bag.

[morgieb]

Yeah am not buying it. Pretty sure they're ed in Victoria though.

[morgieb]

I suppose ICAC and drinking laws wouldn't help, but a 28 point swing? Really?

[morgieb]

Well Newspoll says 58/42 Liberal, so it looks like that Nielsen poll was an outlier.

[morgieb]

Also, I don't think it had been mentioned that Joe de Bruyn will be stepping down as Secretary of the SDA this year, and from the ALP National Executive next year.

[morgieb]

Not only is it a weird thing to lie over, it doesn't feel like it's resignation material. Very good chance that this isn't the end of it. Could just be the beginning.

[morgieb]

Not only is it a weird thing to lie over, it doesn't feel like it's resignation material. Very good chance that this isn't the end of it. Could just be the beginning.

I do understand... when you've spent the last what? 5-7 years running around saying "they're corrupt, we are (and most importantly I am) clean..." The scent, the whiff of something off, was going to kill his brand.

To be fair, it is New South Wales. Isn't that considered the Illinois of Australian politics?

Also, wow. Does any federal or state leader last more than a term in Australian politics? They get replaced like poor quality lightbulbs.

Pretty much, yeah. Can't think of the last government who wasn't involved in corruption. McKell's?

Barnett is in his second full term ftr.

[morgieb]

Actually, Baird is a member of the right-wing faction. He's also a social conservative and devout Christian.

You maybe confusing him with his moderate father, Bruce Baird.

All the media seems to suggest that he's in the Left....

You are correct that he is a SoCon, though.

[morgieb]

Is their a chance Malcolm Turnbull could be leading the Liberals into the next election? Especially if Abbott can't force through the Carbon Tax repeal in the new parliament.

It seems that for a third time consecutively in Australia a Prime Minister will be traumatically damaged over a botched tax introduction.

It's possible, but I doubt the right will be so willing to go along with Turnbull. Think Abbott is in huge trouble though.

[morgieb]

Coalition tanking.

Will this government only last one-term?

[morgieb]

Majority support for the deficit levy?

Eh???

[morgieb]

Can we already stick a fork in the Coalition?

Still two and a half years, and their majority is pretty damn big. But the signs aren't great, the deficit levy definitely smells like Abbott's carbon tax.

[morgieb]

I don't think the ALP is ahead - but the LNP primary vote is being vacuumed up by Palmer, but as Hugh and I both stressed during the Federal Election, don't assume the PUP vote will flow strongly to the LNP.

Newman is probably doomed, he won his seat by a pretty narrow margin, if the state-wide swing is as big is it probably will be... he's gone and moving him to a safer seat now will probably cost them more seats.

And given it's OPV, most likely most of the PUP votes will exhaust.

Newman's gonna be interesting......he'll definitely try to move to a safer seat, but will he?